High Probability Trading Strategies

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Forex investors have to deal with a lot of information while they conduct trading in the forex market. Not only do they need to be on the lookout for changes in currency quotes, ask prices, and bid prices, they also need to be aware of forex signals. Forex signals, as the word signal suggests, give investors an idea of what trends to expect in the volatile forex environment. Oftentimes, forex signals are based on economic indicators.

It is not unusual for forex investors to keep watch of economic indicators since these indicators determine the economic state of a certain country. Economic indicators report changes in the economic conditions that have direct effects on the price and volume of the currency of a given country. Although economic indicators are not the only ones that affect forex signals, they still provide valuable hints on the future valuation of currencies.

Some of the most popularly used economic indicators in forex trading include the GDP, CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. The GDP or gross domestic product represents the total market value of the goods and services produced in a country during a given period of time. The CPI or consumer price index measures the changes in the prices of consumer goods across categories. The retail sales report the total receipts in all retail businesses in a certain country. And the industrial production shows changes in the production of industrial facilities, including utilities, within a specific country.

In conducting an analysis of forex market trends using economic indicators, it is helpful to have an economic calendar handy. An economic calendar lists different economic indicators and dates when they are due to be released. It also helps to keep a close watch of how markets move. Oftentimes, markets move according to expectations on the indicators or reports that are bound to be released. Investors must also be able to determine the economic indicators that often grab the attention of the majority of the players. More often than not, these indicators are the catalysts of largest price and volume movements.

As much as expectations are valuable, investors must also be careful not to rely too much on them. Investors are better off taking notes of market expectations, the economic indicators and reports being released, and the actual market results. In this manner, they are able to make comparisons of the differences in the three factors so they can make assessments as to what might have possibly caused the variance.

Monitoring economic indicators is indeed important when trading in the forex market. Investors must always be observant on changes in economic indicators, market reports, and market prices so they can react more accurately to future reports and forex market movements.

Learning the foreign exchange basics is one of the most important things you need to consider if you wanted to delve into the world of currency trading. At its most general sense, it is important to get into forex with the right mindset and skills in place. Having a natural affinity for conducting business is important because once you have this it will be a lot easier for you to figure out how you will play the field.

To help you decide about the ins and outs of forex currency trading, here are some of the most important tips you need to know:

1. Learn to maximize your profits – Do not be too complacent with just one trading method. It would be best to try your hand at the various forex trading methods so you will also become more familiar with how others in the business probably conduct their business. Know how to boost your profits by being more in the know. Scan the market for possible trades. Focus not just on individuals but try to get the market share of big businesses as well because these financial institutions are the ones which mostly need a continuous flow of currencies.

2. Become a smart trader – It’s safe to say that this tip is the most important when it comes to learning the foreign exchange trading basics. No matter how much you know the technicalities that come with trading currencies, it will never be enough once you get to stay in the industry for a longer period of time and start to deal with different personalities. You should also be able to understand when it is okay to take a risk and when would it be best to just let it pass you by. Values and rates in the foreign exchange trade are always changing and in a matter of minutes prices may fluctuate so you need to keep your business instincts on alert.

3. Instill discipline in trading – You must have a system which you follow throughout the duration of your trading. You need a system so that you can figure out your weaknesses and strengths so you will be able to change them accordingly. You should also allot a specific time for trading. Make sure that when you are trading, you are not doing anything that is unrelated to that because you will need to be focused on the market. You should also trade according to the set rules and regulations. Keep your word should you opt to do business with fellow traders on a set date or on pre-agreed rates.

4. Keep learning – The foreign exchange trading basics still develops and gets harnessed through time. So have an open mind and consider the fact that you will need to constantly educate yourself regarding the trade. Keep yourself abreast of the latest technologies and methods being used. Make time to research about foreign currency trading and read up related news on this industry. There are lots of free learning materials that you can conveniently obtain online.

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Today I want to share with you a very simple trading system that is based entirely on CCI divergence. CCI is a pretty useful indicator in itself but it’s even more effective when you trade divergence patterns.

In trading circles divergence is basically where the priceآ makes new highs but the indicator in question, ie the CCI in this case, fails to make new highs. Similarly in a downward trend the price is making new lows but the indicator is failing to make new lows.

These divergence patterns indicate that a reversal is about to take place because the trend is starting to run out of momentum, and they are generally very strong signals.

So getting back to the CCI divergence trading system, I recommend you plot the price chart along with two CCI indicators – the CCI (10) and CCI (60). You may like to try other settings but I find these work extremely well.

Then you want to wait for a divergence pattern to emerge on BOTH of these indicators. You can use just one indicator but I recommend using both of them if you want to identify the very best signals.

To give you an example there was an excellent set-up on the GBP/USD pair yesterday morning (on the 15 minute chart). You can see from the chart below that although the price didn’t actually trade lower, it did form a perfect double bottom formation (indicated by the grey vertical line), and yet when it did so both the CCI indicators failed to make new lows, which was a very positive sign that a reversal was about to take place, and which turned out to be correct in this case.

As with all trading systems this simple CCI divergence system isn’t foolproof but it can provide you with some excellent signals on occasions.

tip from theforexarticles