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Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates – can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade – If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

The forex market is filled with scam offers and pie in the sky promises. On the other hand, it is the largest, most liquid market that trades twenty four hours a day. So how to find your way through the maze of offers that are out there, well here are four steps to becoming a successful trader.

Becoming a successful Forex trader basically comes down to four things:

1) Learning about the markets and your appitite for risk
How the markets work, what moves them, etc is a simple matter as these markets are not that complicated. Determining how well you are suited to trading is a difficult process however. Finding out how you react to stress and perform when real money is on the line can be a life long process

2) Finding and learning a system that fits your personality and life style
There are as many different systems as there are traders, many have been proven over time, so really the only question is which one suits me.I know many will dispute this point, however it really is not as complicated as some try to make it. Most of those making it hard are really just trying to sell you something. There are many free systems that once learned and traded can make you wealthy

3) Testing that system until you have an edge.
Testing is the heart of becoming a good trader. Most people don’t do this. If you test something until you can prove and edge, no matter how small it may seem, you just need to trade it over and over to make money.

4) Trading that system exactly how you tested it, until you are wealthy.
Many traders are always looking for that magic system that will make money fast. The secret to wealth is to stick to the system you have tested and proved and do it until you acumulate wealth. Not chase the latest trading software or system.

When you are ready to trade this market, keep these four simple steps in mind and then do not let anything stand in your way of becoming the trader you want to be.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis. Basics

What is fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis in Forex is a
type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation
of countries to trade currencies more effectively.

It gives information on how the big political and economical events
influence currency market. Figures and statements given in speeches by
important politicians and economists are known among the traders as
economical announcements that have great impact on currency market moves.
In particular, announcements related to United States economy and politics
are the primary to keep an eye on.

آ 

What is economic calendar?

Economic calendar is created by
economists where they predict different economics figures and values
according to previous months. It contains next data:
Date — Time —
Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous

For example: If the forecast is better than the previous figure,
then US dollar usually is going to strengthen against other currencies.

But when news are due, traders have to check the actual data.

آ 

If to look at oil prices, a rising price will result in weakening of
currencies for countries which depend on huge oil import, e.g. America,
Japan.

آ 

Whose speeches to keep an eye on?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Bank of USA, Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco and so on. Speeches of those prominent people are
watched closely by traders.

آ 

What are the most powerful figures that move Forex
market?

Interest rate
Traditionally, if a country raises its
interest rates, its currency will strengthen because investors will shift
their assets to that country to gain higher returns.

Employment situation
Decreases in the payroll employment are
considered as signs of a weak economic activity that could eventually lead
to lower interest rates, which has negative impact on the currency.

آ 

Trade balance, budget and treasury budget
A country that has
a significant Trade Balance deficit will generally have a weak currency as
there will be continuous commercial sellings of its currency.

آ 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is reported quarterly and is
followed very closely as it is a primary indicator of the strength of
economic activity.
A high GDP figure is usually followed by
expectations of higher interest rates, which is mostly positive for the
currency.

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The British pound continued to rally against is currency counterpart this week following the improved outlook held by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and long-term expectations for higher interest rates in the U.K. may continue to drive the GBP/CHF higher over the near-term.

urrency Pair: GBP/CHF

Chart: 60 Min Charts

Short-Term Bias: Flat

Analysis

آ The British pound continued to rally against is currency counterpart this week following the improved outlook held by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and long-term expectations for higher interest rates in the U.K. may continue to drive the GBP/CHF higher over the near-term. After reaching a high of 1.8976 in November, the pound-franc slipped to a low of 1.5124 on 12/29 following the rise in risk aversion, and the turnaround in market sentiment led the pair to push back above 1.7490-1.7500- (61.8% Fib) this week. However, the lack of momentum to break above 1.7715, the 2009 high, paired with the bearish divergence in the relative strength index suggests that the GBP/CHF is putting in a top, and we may see the pair fall back below the 61.8% Fib to fill-in the gap from the 120 moving average. Over the next few hours of trading, we may see the pair give back and work its way down to 1.7464, the 120 SMA, and a break below the moving average could lead the pair to test 1.7040-50 (50.0% Fib) for support. Be sure to check out other Technical Reports from DailyFX for additional information on the major currency pairs.

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Investing in any market can be volatile.آ Minimizing risk while retaining upside potential is paramount for most investors – that’s why an increasing number of traders and investors are diversifying and hedging with currencies. Different currencies benefit from some of the same things that may hurt stock indexes, bonds or commodities and can be a great way to diversify a portfolio. However, digging into currencies as a trader or investor can be daunting.

New currency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) make it simpler to understand the forex market (the largest, most liquid market on the planet), and use it to diversify risk.

Now, youآ can haveآ General Electric (NYSE:GE) and the British pound in your portfolio by holding the CurrencyShares British Pound ETF (PSE:FXB) in the same account. Have an IRA? Sprinkle some euros in there by holding the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (PSE:FXE), and offset some downside risk of your S&P 500 holdings. Read on to learn more about this unique way of using currencies to diversify your holdings. (For more on ETFs, see Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds and Advantages Of Exchange-Traded Funds.)

Hedging Against Risk
Every investor is exposed to two types of risk: idiosyncratic risk and systemic risk. Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that an individual stock’s price will fall, causing you to accumulate massive losses on that stock. Rooting this kind of risk out of your portfolio is quite simple. All you have to do is diversify your account across a broad range of stocks or stock-based ETFs, thus reducing your exposure to a particular stock. (To learn more, read The Importance Of Diversification and Do You Understand Investment Risk?)

However, diversifying across a broad range of stocks only addresses idiosyncratic risk. You still have to face your account’s systemic risk.

Systemic risk is the exposure you have to the entire stock market falling, causing you to accumulate losses across your entire diversified portfolio. Minimizing the exposure of your portfolio to a bear market used to be difficult. You had to open a futures account or a forex account and try to manage both it and your stockآ accounts at the same time. While opening a forex account and trading it can be extremely profitable if you apply yourself, many investors aren’t ready to take that step. Instead, they decide to leave all of their eggs in their stock market basket and hope the bulls win. Don’t let that be you. (Want to give currencies a shot? Read Wading Into The Currency Market.)

Currency ETFs are opening doors for investors to diversify. You can now easily mitigate systematic risk in your account and take advantage of large macroeconomic trends around the world by putting your money not only into the stock market but also in the forex market through these funds.آ (For more see, A Beginner’s Guide To Hedging.)

How Currency ETFs Work
ETF management firms buy and hold currencies in a fund. They then sell shares of that fund to the public. You can buy and sell ETF shares just like you buy and sell stock shares. Investors value the shares of the ETF at 100 times the current exchange rate for the currency being held. For example, let’s assume that the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (PSE:FXE) is currently priced at $136.80 per share because the underlying exchange rate for the euro versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) is 1.3680 (1.3680 أ— 100 = $136.80).

You can use ETFs to profit from the exchange rate of the dollar versus the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and a few other major currencies. (For more on this market, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)

What makes currencies move?
Unlike the stock market, which has a long-term propensity to rise in value, currencies will often channel in the very long term. Stocks are driven by economic and business growth and tend to trend. Conversely, inflation and issues around monetary policy may prevent a currency from growing in value indefinitely.

Currency pairs may trend as well, and there are simple factors that influence their value and movement. These factors include interest rates, stock market yields, economic growth and government policy. Most of these can be forecasted and used to guide traders as they hedge risk in the rest of the market and make profits in the forex.

Economic Factors and Currency Trends
Here are two examples of economic factors and the currency trends they inspire.

Oil and the Canadian Dollar
Each currency represents an individual economy. If an economy is a commodity producer and exporter, commodity prices will drive currency values. There are three major currencies that are known as “commodity” currencies that exhibit very strong correlations with oil, gold and other raw materials. The Canadian dollar (CAD) is one of these. (For more on how this works, read Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)

One ETF that can be traded to profit from the moves in the CAD/USD pair is CurrencyShares Canadian (PSE:FXC). Because the Canadian dollar is on the base side of this currency pair, it will pull the ETF up when oil prices are rising and it will fall when oil prices are declining. Of course, there are other factors at play in that currency’s value but energy prices are a major influence, and can be surprisingly predictive of the trend.

This is especially useful for stock traders because of the effect that higher energy prices can have on stock values. Additionally, it provides another way for stock traders to speculate on rising commodity prices without having to venture into the futures market. (For on this topic, check out Currency Moves Highlight Equity Opportunities.)

In Figures 1 and 2, you can see 18 months of prices for the Canadian dollar compared to oil prices over the same period.

Figure 1: Crude oil (continuous)

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

Figure 2: Canadian dollar

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

As you can see, there is a strong positive correlation between these two markets. This is helpful as a hedge against stock volatility as well as the real day-to-day costs of higher energy prices.

Short-term traders may look for a breakout in oil prices that is not reflected in the value of the Canadian dollar immediately. When these imbalances occur, there is opportunity to take advantage of the move the market will make as it “catches up” with oil.

Long-term traders can use this as a way to diversify their holdings and speculate on rising energy prices. It is also possible to short the ETF to take advantage of falling oil prices.

Interest Rates and the Swiss Franc
There are several forex relationships that are impacted by interest rates, but a dramatic correlation exists between bond yields and the Swiss franc. One ETF that can be used to profit from the Swiss franc, or “Swissie”, is the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (PSE:FXF). The currency pair is notated as CHF/USD. When the Swissie is rising in value, the ETF rises as well, as it costs more U.S. dollars to buy a Swiss franc.

The correlation described here involves the 10-year bond yield. You will notice in Figures 3 and 4 that when bond yields are rising, the Swissie falls, and vice versa. Depending on interest rates, the value of the Swissie will frequently rise and fall with bond yields.

Figure 3: 10-Year Bond Yields (TNX)

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

Figure 4: Swiss franc

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

This relationship is useful not only as a way to find new trading opportunities but as a hedge against falling stock prices. The stock market has a positive correlation with bond yields; therefore, if yields are falling, the stock market should be falling as well. A savvy investor who is long the Swissie ETF can offset some of those losses.

Conclusion
Currency ETFs have opened the forex market to investors focused on stocks. They adds an additional layer of diversificationآ and can also be used effectively by shorter term traders for quick profits. There are even options available for most of these ETFs.

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Think of fundamental analysis for a publicly traded stock then multiply many times to scale up to an entire country or a number of countries in some cases like the Euro.

Forex fundamental analysis is a market analysis that tries to determine the future price of a currency based on current market trends. The difference from technical analysis lies in the fact that fundamental analysis is not based on mathematical probability so much as it is a complete analysis of a currency based on political, economic and environmental factors. Fundamental analysis focus on statistics and key numbers that indicate changes in supply and demand. It requires the trader to have basic knowledge of the market forces – supply and demand and how these are affected by changes in the general economy and political landscape. It is an analysis of the intrinsic value of a currency. How a certain economic or political event will affect the forex market is what fundamental analysis is all about.

The basics of trading on fundamental analysis consists mainly on analyzing these political and economic changes as they will have an effect on prices. This implies that traders will gather as much useful information as possible from news sources to gather info on unemployment, economic policy, political developments, inflation, growth rates and much more. Traders are constantly keeping an ear to the ground on speeches from policy makers and key commentators. Speeches and press releases from key figures in the Federal Reserve, Treasury and others are highly and almost hysterically anticipated as the market waits for these powerful policy makers to release news.

As always if there is an decrease in the supply of a good, in this case a currency, but the demand for that good remains the same, then the end result will be an increase in price. Likewise, if the supply increases while the demand stays the same, then the result is falling prices. So fundamental analysis is basically an analysis of a nations demand and supply for their currency. Many factors affect this balance which is why a trader going on fundamental analysis must know about many indicators such as Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Production (Industrial), Political Stability and Development, Interest Rates, Government Policies, International Trade, CPI, PPI, PMI and much much more.

Once all this data has been gathered, the trader will make an analysis of the currencies value against another. Then it can be decided if the currency will rise or fall against others. This process is fundamental analysis.

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In Islamic Forex Trading, there are no trades allowed that cannot be completed at the time of the trade. For example you cannot make a trade that will take six months to complete. You are only allowed to purchase foreign currency for the current trade value. If you make a profit you must be charged interest on it.

When trading for gold you must also trade with something of equal value. The same is true for trading silver or less precious metals.

Islamic Forex Trading accounts are set up to create a swap free account. This means that no swaps will be accounted to positions overnight. These accounts are set up for customers who believe that swaps are contrary to their religious beliefs.

The Islamic Forex Trading accounts do not receive or pay overnight interest or carry on positions in accordance with their religion. There are zero up-front commissions and no additional charges on these accounts.

In the Islamic Forex Trading account the interest payments on account balances is waived. Instead of swaps, the account will be charged a service charge on each lot left on the currency trade.

Forex traders have found a way for persons with Islamic beliefs to participate in the fast growing Forex market. The majority of Islam fundamentalists agree that Forex trading can comply with Sharia only if it is spot trading and doesn’t involve earning any overnight interest on the account.آ  As long as the trading doesn’t involve Riba (unlawful gain) it is considered to be legal in the Muslim world.

Forex is basically trading one currency for another. Some Islamic scholars tend towards the thought that since there is a lot of volatility and speculation, it should not be permissible under Islamic law. It is compared to day trading which is not allowed under any circumstance in the Islamic world.آ  You are not allowed to sell what you do not have in your possession. Therefore, you cannot purchase what you cannot take immediate possession of. This eliminates the speculative aspect of regular Forex trading.

You must take into account that some experts in Islamic law will interpret the laws differently and that you must be very careful to follow your beliefs very strictly to avoid being unlawful in your business ventures. Find a knowledgeable Islamic Forex Trading advisor to help you get started. They must be aware of all the rules on profits and loss. A great deal of experience would be helpful and you should check the credentials of the person you want to work with. When you are a little more experienced in the business end, you will be more comfortable with your Forex trading.

Speculation, hedging and arbitrage are the three key factors that dominate and influence Forex trading. While every trader may have one of these reasons to play with currencies, the technical analysis helps to forecast the price movements of these currencies. Many technical analysis tools are used to arrive at judgmental trading decisions. Forex market is a round the clock market and therefore the analysis should capture the very minute price movements.

آ 

The historical data serves as a strong base for such analysis. The oldest technical analysis tool, known as “candlestickâ€‌, is believed to hail from Japan since the 18th Century. Then came the very popular “Dow Theoryâ€‌ in the 19th century, laid down by the very famous Dow Jones.

Any technical analysis would be based upon three assumptions viz.,

• A price trend always has a reason
• Historical trends may repeat
• All considerations in the analysis are based on the current market trend.

A good technical analysis is based on different trend patterns designed by the technical analysts. A best technical analyst would always advice to go along with the current trend, that is a trader should “Go Long or Holdâ€‌ in an upside trend and “Go Short or Sellâ€‌ in a downside trend. Technical analysis is all about charting out different patterns so as to enable the trader to decide on the best pattern and follow the same in his trading decision. The popular technical analysis tools are charts, trend patterns and technical indicators.

Technical analysts use the historical trends and market analysis to correlate it with the current factors affecting the market. This helps to understand the price direction in the future. Hence technical analysis involves much of mathematical calculations and statistical analysis. A number of technical analysis indicators have been widely used, again as per the perceptions and beliefs of the traders. Political, social, psychological and economic events largely affect the technical analysis. A good reason why technical analysis has gained much significance than any other analysis is its ability to gauge the very smallest movements in the market trends.

Technical analysis indicators are many and are based on different ways of analysis. They are based on moving averages, volumes, volatility and range. Moving average based indicators include three types – Moving Average, Moving Average Envelope and Moving Average Convergence Divergence. The volume-based indicators are again classified into Volume, On Balance Volume, Chaikin Money Flow indicator and Accumulation/Distribution. The famous “Bollinger Bandsâ€‌ & “Fibonacci Retracementâ€‌ are based on volatility analysis. Relative Strength Index and Stochastic method are based on range.

Why Technical Analysis?
While we have explained in brief about technical analysis, you would be keen to know why technical analysis serves as a popular tool in Forex trading. Large hedge funds, financial institutions, banks, corporates dominate Forex market. While they have the state-of-the-art technology to keep an eye on the market movements, they still adapt technical analysis to ensure that all political, social, psychological and economic factors are considered while analyzing the future price movements. Technical analysis is the best tool to identify right trends with correct prices.

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What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?

When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a “mini account”, which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each “pip” or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.

The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.

Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.

The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with “paper money”, or “fake money.” Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.

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In my article yesterday, Could America Lose Its Triple A Rating, I talk about how a ratings downgrade of U.S. debt would be the perfect excuse to push through an alternative reserve currency to replace the dollar because it would strip the confidence of sovereign funds.

In the NY Times Today, Nouriel Roubini touches on this point in detail:

Traditionally, empires that hold the global reserve currency are also net foreign creditors and net lenders. The British Empire declined — and the pound lost its status as the main global reserve currency — when Britain became a net debtor and a net borrower in World War II. Today, the United States is in a similar position. It is running huge budget and trade deficits, and is relying on the kindness of restless foreign creditors who are starting to feel uneasy about accumulating even more dollar assets. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.

But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi.

I encourage you to read the entire Op-ed article The Almighty Renminbi?

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No doubt that losing money in Forex is a very stressful and painful experience. Did you ever lose all of your money in Forex. I hope not. But, if it ever happen to you, the first question is “Did you have profitable trading rules?â€‌ and the second question is “Did you obey thems 100% in every trade?

Trading rules and being disclipined with them is the key of success in Forex. All successful traders create a trading rules and trade their rules. In this posting I will write the kind of rules you have to set up.

How to set up your trading rules:

Before you decide to enter the market, whatever your trading style you have to answer the questions below.

1- Where to enter a trade?
2- Where to exist a position?
3- Why should I trade?
4- How much your risk per a trade?

Where to enter a trade?

You have to know exactly where will you try to open the desired position? What happens if
your entry level is not reached? For example your collection of indicators giving you the entry signal

Where to exit a trade?

You have to know exactly where will you exit the position, both if it’s a winning position
(take profit) and if it’s a losing position (stop loss)? Exiting in the correct time without hoping of more profit or hoping that the loss decreasing is one of the very important points that you rules have to include!

Why should I trade?

When it is time to trade, you must think before you act. If you act before you think and make mistakes, your subconscious mind will
take over and record all your ignorant actions and subconsciously create bad trading habits.

Why should you trade?

The question itself needs to be clearer! The question means “There are times that you have to enter the market, and there are times that you have to exit the market, right, Huh? well, there are times that you should not trade at all?â€‌

How much your risk per a trade?
It depends to your money management strategy. I recommend that your risk per a trade should never exceed 3% per trade. It’s better to adjust your risk to 1% or 2% but if you are confident in your trading system then you can lever your risk up to 3%.

The last advise to finish this posting because the most of us forget to answer it daily and hourly even minutely:

1- Being disciplined with them!
2- Being disciplined with them!
3- Being disciplined with them!
4- “Plan your trade and trade your planâ€‌ Which means “Being disciplined with them!â€‌

The failure rate for any endeavor that requires talent, skill, and perhaps even luck is always higher than the success rate. The more difficult the task is, the higher the rate of failure.

How many traders are successful at trading Forex? It’s difficult at best to speculate. What is success? Is it making a 6 figure income, earning greater than 5% a year, or maybe even just holding on to your capital? Also, how do you define failure? Is it losing your stake, or is it just walking away from the business?

Let’s assume that trading failure is losing all of your capital within the first year of trading. If that is true, is it really any surprise that 90-95% of fledging retail traders lose all their money in a relatively short span of time? Most individuals have the unrealistic expectation that they can make a quick fortune with a small investment by over leveraging and over trading without any training, experience, or a well thought out business plan.

Of course you can always find someone or something to blame on your lack of success (such as broker manipulation, bank interventions, random events, or even sun spots and El Niأ±o), but I personally believe you are only a failure if you quit. Take responsibility for your successes and failures, and if you aren’t seeing the results you desire, dig down deep and find what it takes to make your goals a reality.

Up until recently, it was a widely held belief that 90% of all start up business failed within the first 1-5 years. Now more accurate statistics are emerging that show the figures to be closer to 50-60%. Perhaps that will hold true for trading as well, but even if it doesn’t, remember that failing is easy and requires little effort while success is a challenge and requires hard work and dedication.

Get your mind right, Maarten. If others have learned to be successful at this game, you potentially can too.

tip from kickforex

Given the global nature of the forex exchangeآ market, it is important to first examine and learn some of the important historical events relating to currencies and currency exchange before entering any trades. In this section we’ll review the international monetary system and how it has evolved to its current state. We will then take a look at the major players that occupy the forex market – something that is important for all potential forex traders to understand.

The History of the Forex
Gold Standard System
The creation of theآ gold standard monetary system in 1875 marks one of the most important events in the history of the forex market. Before the gold standard was implemented, countries would commonly use gold and silver as means of international payment. The main issue with using gold and silver for payment is that their value is affected by external supply and demand. For example, the discovery of a new gold mine would drive gold prices down.

The underlying idea behind the gold standard was that governments guaranteed the conversion of currency into a specific amount of gold, and vice versa. In other words, a currency would be backed by gold. Obviously, governments needed a fairly substantial gold reserve in order to meet the demand for currency exchanges. During the late nineteenth century, all of the major economic countries had defined an amount of currency to an ounce of gold. Over time, the difference in price of an ounce of gold between two currencies became the exchange rate for those two currencies. This represented the first standardized means of currency exchange in history.

The gold standard eventually broke down during the beginning of World War I. Due to the political tension with Germany, the major European powers felt a need to complete large military projects. The financial burden of these projects was so substantial that there was not enough gold at the time to exchange for all the excess currency that the governments were printing off.

Although the gold standard would make a small comeback during the inter-war years, most countries had dropped it again by the onset of World War II. However, gold never ceased being the ultimate form of monetary value. (For more on this, read The Gold Standard Revisited, What Is Wrong With Gold? and Using Technical Analysis In The Gold Markets.)

Bretton Woods System
Before the end of World War II, the Allied nations believed that there would be a need to set up a monetary system in order to fill the void that was left behind when the gold standard system was abandoned. In July 1944, more than 700 representatives from the Allies convened at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to deliberate over what would be called the Bretton Woods system of international monetary management.

To simplify, Bretton Woods led to the formation of the following:

1. A method of fixed exchange rates;
2. The U.S. dollar replacing the gold standard to become a primary reserve currency; and
3. The creation of three international agencies to oversee economic activity: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

One of the main features of Bretton Woods is that the U.S. dollar replaced gold as the main standard of convertibility for the world’s currencies; and furthermore, the U.S. dollar became the only currency that would be backed by gold. (This turned out to be the primary reason that Bretton Woods eventually failed.)

Over the next 25 or so years, the U.S. had to run a series of balance of payment deficits in order to be the world’s reserved currency. By the early 1970s, U.S. gold reserves were so depleted that the U.S. treasury did not have enough gold to cover all the U.S. dollars that foreign central banks had in reserve.

Finally, on August 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon closed the gold window, and the U.S. announced to the world that it would no longer exchange gold for the U.S. dollars that were held in foreign reserves. This event marked the end of Bretton Woods.

Even though Bretton Woods didn’t last, it left an important legacy that still has a significant effect on today’s international economic climate. This legacy exists in the form of the three international agencies created in the 1940s: the IMF, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now part of the World Bank) and GATT, the precursor to the World Trade Organization. (To learn more about Bretton Wood, read What Is The International Monetary Fund? and Floating And Fixed Exchange Rates.)

Current Exchange Rates
After the Bretton Woods system broke down, the world finally accepted the use of floating foreign exchange rates during the Jamaica agreement of 1976. This meant that the use of the gold standard would be permanently abolished. However, this is not to say that governments adopted a pure free-floating exchange rate system. Most governments employ one of the following three exchange rate systems that are still used today:

1. Dollarization;
2. Pegged rate; and
3. Managed floating rate.

Dollarization
This event occurs when a country decides not to issue its own currency and adopts a foreign currency as its national currency. Although dollarization usually enables a country to be seen as a more stable place for investment, the drawback is that the country’s central bank can no longer print money or make any sort of monetary policy. An example of dollarization is El Salvador’s use of the U.S. dollar. (To read more, see Dollarization Explained.)

Pegged Rates
Pegging occurs when one country directly fixes its exchange rate to a foreign currency so that the country will have somewhat more stability than a normal float. More specifically, pegging allows a country’s currency to be exchanged at a fixed rate with a single or a specific basket of foreign currencies. The currency will only fluctuate when the pegged currencies change.

For example, China pegged its yuan to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 8.28 yuan to US$1, between 1997 and July 21, 2005. The downside to pegging would be that a currency’s value is at the mercy of the pegged currency’s economic situation. For example, if the U.S. dollar appreciates substantially against all other currencies, the yuan would also appreciate, which may not be what the Chinese central bank wants.

Managed Floating Rates
This type of system is created when a currency’s exchange rate is allowed to freely change in value subject to the market forces of supply and demand. However, the government or central bank may intervene to stabilize extreme fluctuations in exchange rates. For example, if a country’s currency is depreciating far beyond an acceptable level, the government can raise short-term interest rates. Raising rates should cause the currency to appreciate slightly; but understand that this is a very simplified example. Central banks typically employ a number of tools to manage currency.

Market Participants
Unlike the equity market – where investors often only trade with institutional investors (such as mutual funds) or other individual investors – there are additional participants that trade on the forex market for entirely different reasons than those on the equity market. Therefore, it is important to identify and understand the functions and motivations of the main players of the forex market.

Governments and Central Banks
Arguably, some of the most influential participants involved with currency exchange are the central banks and federal governments. In most countries, the central bank is an extension of the government and conducts its policy in tandem with the government. However, some governments feel that a more independent central bank would be more effective in balancing the goals of curbing inflation and keeping interest rates low, which tends to increase economic growth. Regardless of the degree of independence that a central bank possesses, government representatives typically have regular consultations with central bank representatives to discuss monetary policy. Thus, central banks and governments are usually on the same page when it comes to monetary policy.

Central banks are often involved in manipulating reserve volumes in order to meet certain economic goals. For example, ever since pegging its currency (the yuan) to the U.S. dollar, China has been buying up millions of dollars worth of U.S. treasury bills in order to keep the yuan at its target exchange rate. Central banks use the foreign exchange market to adjust their reserve volumes. With extremely deep pockets, they yield significant influence on the currency markets.

Banks and Other Financial Institutions
In addition to central banks and governments, some of the largest participants involved with forex transactions are banks. Most individuals who need foreign currency for small-scale transactions deal with neighborhood banks. However, individual transactions pale in comparison to the volumes that are traded in the interbank market.

The interbank market is the market through which large banks transact with each other and determine the currency price that individual traders see on their trading platforms. These banks transact with each other on electronic brokering systems that are based upon credit. Only banks that have credit relationships with each other can engage in transactions. The larger the bank, the more credit relationships it has and the better the pricing it can access for its customers. The smaller the bank, the less credit relationships it has and the lower the priority it has on the pricing scale.

Banks, in general, act as dealers in the sense that they are willing to buy/sell a currency at the bid/ask price. One way that banks make money on the forex market is by exchanging currency at a premium to the price they paid to obtain it. Since the forex market is a decentralized market, it is common to see different banks with slightly different exchange rates for the same currency.

Hedgers
Some of the biggest clients of these banks are businesses that deal with international transactions. Whether a business is selling to an international client or buying from an international supplier, it will need to deal with the volatility of fluctuating currencies.

If there is one thing that management (and shareholders) detest, it is uncertainty. Having to deal with foreign-exchange risk is a big problem for many multinationals. For example, suppose that a German company orders some equipment from a Japanese manufacturer to be paid in yen one year from now. Since the exchange rate can fluctuate wildly over an entire year, the German company has no way of knowing whether it will end up paying more euros at the time of delivery.

One choice that a business can make to reduce the uncertainty of foreign-exchange risk is to go into the spot market and make an immediate transaction for the foreign currency that they need.

Unfortunately, businesses may not have enough cash on hand to make spot transactions or may not want to hold massive amounts of foreign currency for long periods of time. Therefore, businesses quite frequently employ hedging strategies in order to lock in a specific exchange rate for the future or to remove all sources of exchange-rate risk for that transaction.

For example, if a European company wants to import steel from the U.S., it would have to pay in U.S. dollars. If the price of the euro falls against the dollar before payment is made, the European company will realize a financial loss. As such, it could enter into a contract that locked in the current exchange rate to eliminate the risk of dealing in U.S. dollars. These contracts could be either forwards or futures contracts.

Speculators
Another class of market participants involved with foreign exchange-related transactions is speculators. Rather than hedging against movement in exchange rates or exchanging currency to fund international transactions, speculators attempt to make money by taking advantage of fluctuating exchange-rate levels.

The most famous of all currency speculators is probably George Soros. The billionaire hedge fund manager is most famous for speculating on the decline of the British pound, a move that earned $1.1 billion in less than a month. On the other hand, Nick Leeson, a derivatives trader with England’s Barings Bank, took speculative positions on futures contracts in yen that resulted in losses amounting to more than $1.4 billion, which led to the collapse of the company.

Some of the largest and most controversial speculators on the forex market are hedge funds, which are essentially unregulated funds that employ unconventional investment strategies in order to reap large returns. Think of them as mutual funds on steroids. Hedge funds are the favorite whipping boys of many a central banker. Given that they can place such massive bets, they can have a major effect on a country’s currency and economy. Some critics blamed hedge funds for the Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s, but others have pointed out that the real problem was the ineptness of Asian central bankers

The Forex market, like most investment markets, is often glued to economic reports that are published on a monthly or even quarterly basis.آ 

Some of the more common economic reports or indicators that can influence and shape trade decisions in an investment market are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Housing Price Index (HPI), and the Employment Situation Report.آ  The Employment Situation Report is one of the most popular indicators around, where changes in the employment rate and hourly wage rates can influence overall currency rates.آ 

What exactly is the Employment Situation Report?

The Employment Situation Report, also commonly called the Labor Report, is an economic indicator that basically reports on the number of people out of work in the country, as well as on general wage rates, etc.آ  The first part of the Employment Situation Report is called the household survey, which surveys approximately 60,000 households throughout the country about those out of work.آ  From that number, the general unemployment rate is calculated.آ  In other words, the household survey is a very powerful survey that helps determine the country’s overall unemployment rate.آ 

The household survey is basically a lagging indicator, which means that any changes that occur in the number of people out of work usually happen after changes in an economy.آ  If the economy is strong, the number of people out of work will generally soon decrease (positive effect on the currency rate), while if the economy slows down, the effect on the number of unemployed people might not be felt until a few months later (negative effect on currency rate).آ 

The household survey is also countercyclic in nature, which means that the overall unemployment rate moves in the opposite direction of the overall economic trends.آ  If the economy is in a growth mode, that means that the unemployment rate will decrease, while if the economy is weakening, then the unemployment figure will increase.آ 

The establishment survey, which is the second part of the Economic Situation Report, measures hours worked and overall hourly earnings throughout the country.آ  It does this by surveying about 400,000 businesses nationwide.آ  It is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it changes when the economy changes.آ  If the number of hours worked and the overall wage increases, then the economy is moving in the same direction at the same time.

Too many times I hear about new traders opening a trade using the 5-minute chart (not my favorite approach) and when the market moves against them, they move to the 15-minute chart to justify staying in a little longer, hoping that the market will turn around.

Then if the market continues to move against them, they move out to the hourly chart to look for a reason to stay in the trade. As the market continues to move against them, they shift to the daily chart to hope to find a reason to stay in the trade. The next step is to get a margin call because they have no funds left to maintain their position.

Of course, the main issue here is that they were looking for a way to stay in a losing trade rather than closing it out at a small loss. Taking a loss does not mean that you do not know what you are doing. Too many new traders think that losing a trade means that they are losers or that they aren’t smart enough to trade. Nothing could be further from the truth though.

Professional traders understand that if they trade, they will have losing trades. That is really the only guarantee in the field of speculation. How you handle those losing trades has as much to do with your success as a trader as any other factor. You don’t have to like losing, but you must accept the fact that all trades cannot be winning trades. You have to keep those losing trades small enough to be able to make up for them with your winning trades.

Switching time frames to justify staying in a trade is not how you keep your losses small. Identify your exit point before you get into the trade and stick to it. Judge yourself from month to month rather than on every pip move in the market. Be consistent in your approach and stay in one time frame from the beginning of the trade to the end of the trade.

article from golearnforex

It was a fair question, and it certainly made me pause for a few seconds. After all how can you argue that it’s not?

When you enter a position there are only two possible outcomes – the price can go up or the price can go down. Therefore even pure gamblers stand a good chance of making some money without any knowledge or experience of how the forex markets work.

However, the answer I came up with went something like this:

“Yes in a way I suppose you could argue that forex trading is a form of gambling, but the great thing about forex trading is that a lot of it is based on human behaviour and psychology, which is where technical analysis and charting comes into play. If you watch the markets you will see the same patterns repeating themselves over and over again, and similarly the price will often react in a similar manner to certain technical indicators because so many human traders all over the world follow the same indicators, which is where you can give yourself an edge and make a regular income. Whenever I take a position, it’s always backed up by a combination of technical indicators being in my favour, so there’s always a high probability that my trade will be a winning oneâ€‌.

For more forex tips and strategies, including full details of my main 4 hour trading strategy, simply sign up to my newsletter by filling in the short form above.

آ 

tip from theforexarticls

What are the Secrets in Forex Trading?

More than 100 million people in the world are looking for profitable investment. We love talking investment because this is the energyless but high profit gain business. Forex Trading is the world’s largest financial market with an estimated daily average turnover between $1.5 trillion to $2.5 trillion that we cannot doubt. If we want to make profit from this investment, there are some related knowledges that we definitely need to know.

• Use Future data to justify market trend.
• Pivot Program shows entry & exit signals.
• Familiar Chart Patterns and Trend lines.
• how big dogs are doing?
• euro vs USD Tricks.
• Be Smart to Filter Various Currency pairs.
• Confident to Control Up and Down Trendy.
• Avoid Pitfalls of Dumb money.
• Intelligent stop loss strategies implementation.
• AIME methodology
• History is your tips.
• Hedge currency Trades .

Advantages of Forex Trading

Are you new to trade currency? Are you giving up due to your past trade? Get yourself to know the primitive advantages of Forex trading. And you are also essentially advised to refer to the risk-bearing.

• Two Way Market where traders can trade in Bull and Bear market
• Margin Trading 100 : 1 leverage
• Low Account Balance for entry
• Can work in odd work due to 24 hours a day from Sunday night to Friday noon
• Flexible transaction sizes
• Very dynamic and trendy
• No worry about bad fills due to price gaps
• Can practice at online simulation until you become expert
  read more..

آ 

How does a faulty Forex dealer cheat your money?

Forex market is a non-centralized market. There is no common market place for Forex traders and there is no so-call â€کstandard’ in foreign currency exchange price. Different Forex dealers offer very different deals to their customers.

As an individual FX trader, you depends solely on the dealer to make a transaction in your trades, thus picking up the right dealer is extremely crucial in your risk.

You may wonder how does a faulty dealer can cheat on your money as all investment call have to go thru your decisions.

Well, here’s a typical example:

Often a bad dealer is not totally scams.

They are smart persons that trick money from traders that are not well-aware. These dealers, often known as retail market makers, will often encourage their clients to trade on margin and set stop loss orders, which allow the market makers to close out trades almost at will during busy markets at prices they have set. If the market maker does not offset the trader’s position, the loss generated when a stop loss is triggered becomes the market maker’s gain.

Trade prices are easily skewed one way or the other depending on the retail trader’s position, which is known by the market maker.

Traders can be encouraged to take risky positions just before major economic announcements. If all else fails, the market maker can quote extreme prices (known as spiking) to trigger stop loss orders while the client is at work or asleep.

The vast majority of retail FX traders are not profitable. For those losing retail speculators, much of the funds they had on deposit will be, in some form or another, transferred to the market maker.

It is believe that more than 50% of Forex traders are losing money long term in the foreign currency exchange market. Yet, there are still a lot of Forex traders jump in to the market, trade blindly and lost their money.

Trade after trade, its surprising to see that ‘normally-losing’ traders keep betting (not investing!) their money into Forex market without reviewing their trading strategy. No matter you are the experienced or the beginners, there are certain ‘must-do’ when trading Forex to manage the risk wisely and to increase your possibilities in making profits.

#1 : Invest in your brain first.

If you are serious about investing in Forex market, building up your trading skills and knowledge is the very first step that you must take. Seminars, workshops, video tutorials, online learning, or even books are handful to help us learn from the professional.

Learn to implement technical charting into your trades; learn using indicators to determine the right time to enter/exit the market; brush up your experience by trading with a demo account… all these are effective to ensure your smooth starts and it will definitely reduce your chances of losing money.آ 

#2: Getting the right trading system.آ 

It is wise to research very well and consider all the various brokers’ system available to you before making your choice. By applying certain level of computer automations (such like charting and doing auto trades), trading; a well-designed trading system will reduce your work dramatically. This in turns give you more time to focus on studying the market and plotting your strategy. Also, using auto-trading system will avoid you from doing emotional-trades.

#3: Have a trading plan.

As the old says: “Fail to plan is plan to failâ€‌. Trading is like sailing boat middle in the sea; you will not be going anywhere without compass and navigator.

What is the detail objective of the trades? How much profit to expect from the trade? When to get into the market? How much to invest? What price to exit the market? If things do not work out, when do execute the stop loss order? How high is the affordable risk? A good trading plan should at least answers the above questions. Further more, if your trading plan fails, review and modify your trading plan.

Find out your mistakes and learn from them.

#4: Money management.

Money management is controlling your risk through the use of protective stops, while balancing your potential for profit against your potential for loss. For example, good money management means you know your profit objective and the odds of being right or wrong, and controlling your risk with protective stops. You are better off with a trade where you might lose $1000 if you are wrong and make $500 if you are right, that would work eight times out of ten, than to take a trade where you would make $1000 if you are right and lose only $500 if you are wrong, but works only one time out of three.

If you are investing using your savings, it’s even more important that you manage your money in your trading and in your personal expenses. Chances are high that you miss a good investing chance because of you are lack of capital.

#5: Discipline trading.

Trading Forex with discipline is important. Success in Forex trading could not be achieved by plotting out the best trading plan. It is also depends on implementing the trading plan. Be discipline, trade according to your plan and never trade with your emotion no matter you are losing money or winning. Greed will stop you from taking profit at predetermined level; while fear will stop you from making the nice kill in the market.

the tip from golearnforex