Chinoiserie not today … but paved the duck pond! I have no certainty that matters, that things that tickle me!

آ agricultural credit was based an advertising campaign on common sense …. after reading many posts I wonder if the campaign would be doomed to failure today.

آ Some think I’m a grumpy old man, an acid of trading … probably! I am far from saying the opposite!

1. Aggregation time chandeliers …. it tickles me this long story … closing price during the opening of a candle in 1 minute ….. god it is good! What value can have this information? can we ever imagine that the guy who started the order was made in 59 seconds?
2. Differences ….. honestly in the mid 90s, I used it, but now, save time, I give you the recipe: Take a one euro coin, the toss and see the result! is the symbolic differences.
3. آ The volumes separately on the stock … that the true volume, raise your hand? you lean on the central issue, these volumes they represent what? open interest? I leave you looking ….
4. specific points, pivots of all kinds, round numbers, daily, weekly, monthly …… honestly if a price can not touch one of these remarkable point is a miracle, it’s everywhere! as we consider most areas ….. it becomes really funny!
5. conspiracy theory: if the course does not go where I predicted, once again the ruskofs!

آ and I’ll pass …..

آ we must return to simple things, basic. The complexity is not the shortest route to success.

آ The grail you before your eyes is the price! Price made the indicators and not vice versa! indicators are lagging behind, often the spark pulse!

آ I hear the back of the room …. yes yes ….. but I ichimoku trade with ichimoku, lean on its structure and you will see that this system is much higher, the lowest of concepts of cycle, the price, the price difference. It’s so visual that I put ….. 5 seconds per graph to see if setup ….

آ I use these lines to welcome the initiative lliane on pro-AT, the birth of a queue ichimoku is a good thing. I work more on a security approach, therefore, not aggressive system, which is easily tamed if it is used …… not seeing his own desires and if one makes the multi UT. It’s my opinion. No wasted time finding settings …. it works very good standard. A word to the backtests simon …. and ….. do metatrader Heat milk in a sieve …. the parallel is good …. the backtests could be in the first part of my prose ….! ichimoku also a feature, it is a trend follower … but you said, boy, is flat …… there is no trend! and this discretion can only see it.

آ You see I only lift the carpet to put the dust ….. I bring no solution … I’m probably too old to hear MMEA 1 period and again ….. I have a collector ….. but it makes me laugh more.

آ If there are volunteers to create a file Renko, Kagi ….. I encourage them, there’s food for thought with these Chinese …. Japanese! if there are people interested in a small development ….. a little message!

Have a Nice Day

آ 

آ  This view weekly since 2007 must warn you about the importance of current levels may be joined or even surpassed (see my question on the chart above). Indeed, we are witnessing since March 2009 an upward trend that the general damns the downside is unwavering and that somehow gives the impression of even surpass the LT bearish trend. An upward dynamic that is found on a MACD indicators (reference 5), which arrives bearing on its support and especially an RSI (reference 6) which does not yet entered into overbought zone (> 70). Now to view the range of daily ABC that accompanies the rise since March 2009:

An upward as-you-see’m so smooth the median of this range ABC, so that even with the age of the latter, we are tempted to keep it saw its relevance. Zoom in UT day is useful for understanding the current dynamics of the movement.

آ 

آ If you are willing to recognize that 9> 7> 5> 3> 1 and 8> 6> 4> 2 then you will probably arrive at the same conclusion as me: the trend is upward. However, it is clear that on the CAC 40 over the past three months saw the establishment of what should qualify as a market range which translates into a horizontal drift as you can verify sue the zoom below below.

آ 

Zoom who first saw the oscillations large enough to become akin to entering a squeeze, which reflects a market waiting phase.

On the last day chart of the CAC 40, it should be noted:

• 4 impacts (1-2-4 and 6) on the area of 38.2% retracement of the 2007-2009 lower
• The range 3-4-5 through the last bull attack
• 5 is greater than 3 and 7 is itself greater than 5
• 6 marks a test of the median of the range 3-4-5
The investor must be aware that the markets in general and the CAC 40 in particular marks a pause for 3 months. This break is characterized by a sideways drift that can be considered as a neutral trend in UT days.

This finding should not lead to the conclusion that the upward movement of the medium term that originated on the lower end of March 2009 is over.

Seasonality is not only conducive to Christmas, it is traditionally used to tell operations grooming assets which are used to translate into higher values that are best performed during the year and down those who have underperformed. This is therefore a factor of support and before December 31, it seems rather difficult to consider a correction that exceeds the range identified in the above analysis.

CONCLUSION:
It will be for operators to achieve retrieve the CAC 40 in the range from 3600 to 3900 to enable him to be back on the road to 4200 (with spillover strength of 3900) or come test the very important support of 3400 which embodies the line of neck ‘broad extinguisher that is becoming more and more questionable given the time elapsed since its overflow

آ 

آ 

- Head & Shoulders 4- ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظˆط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ†
ط§ظ† ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظˆط¹ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ع¾ظˆ ط§ظ‚ظˆط§ع¾ط§ طھظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ط§ ظˆظٹط§طھظٹ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط­ط§ظ„طھغŒظ†
ط§ظ„ع¾غŒط¯ ط§ظ†ط¯ ط´ظˆظ„ط¯ط± ط§ظ„ط¹ط§ط¯ظٹ ظ…ط«ظ„ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 1 ظˆط§ظ„ع¾غŒط¯ ط§ظ†ط¯ ط´ظˆظ„ط¯ط± ط§ظ„ظ…ظ‚ظ„ظˆط¨ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¹ظƒظˆط³ظ…ط«ظ„ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 2
ظˆع¾ظ…ط§ ط¹ط¨ط§ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظٹط´ط¨ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظ„ظ„ط§ظ†ط³ط§ظ† ظٹط¨غŒظ† ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظˆظ…ظ† طھط­طھظ‡ ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ظ…ط³طھظˆط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ط§ظ‚ظ„
ظ…ظ† ظ…ط³طھظˆظ‰ ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³.
ظˆط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ظٹط®طھظ„ظپ ظ…ط³طھظˆط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ظˆط§ظ„ط§ط¯ظ†ظ‰ ظ…ط¹طھظ…ط¯ط§ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§طھط¬ط§ظ‡ ط®ط· ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظ†ظپط³ظ‡ ظپظ„غŒط³
ط´ط±ط·ط§ ط§ظ† ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظ…ط³طھظˆظٹ ط§ظˆ ط¨ط´ظƒظ„ ط§ظپظ‚ظٹظˆط§ظ†ظ…ط§ ظ…ظ…ظƒظ† ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط§ظپظ‚ظٹ ط§ظˆ ظٹظ…غŒظ„ ظ„ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظˆ
ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظ„ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ط§ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ† ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط³ط± ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظٹطµط§ظ„ ط®ط· طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط¨غŒظ† ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظˆ ظ…ظ†
ط§ظ„ط§ط³ظپظ„.
ظˆع¾ط°ط§ ط¨ط§ط®طھطµط§ط± ط¹ظ† ظ…ط§ظٹط®طµط´ظƒظ„ع¾ظ…ط§
ظˆظٹط¸ع¾ط± ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ط§ظ„ط§ظ† ط¨ظƒط«ط±ظ‡ ظ„ظƒظ„ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¤ط´ط±ط§طھ طھظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ط§ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¯ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط¨ط¹غŒط¯ ظ…ط«ظ„ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆ ظˆط§ظ„ظ†ط§ط³ط¯ط§ظƒ
ظˆظٹط¸ع¾ط± ظپغŒظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¹ظƒظˆط³ظˆط؛غŒط±ظ‡ ظƒط«غŒط± ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ط³ع¾ظ… ظ„ط§ظ† ط­ط±ظƒط© esst ظˆط¨ط¹ط¶ط§ظ„ط§ط³ع¾ظ… ظ…ط«ظ„
ط§ظƒط«ط± ط§ظ„ط§ط³ع¾ظ… ظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ظ‡ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ط¤ط´ط±ط§طھ
ظˆط¨ط§ظ„ط§ظ…ظƒط§ظ† ط§ط³طھط®ط¯ط§ظ… ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط¹ط¯ط© ظپطھط±ط§طھ ط²ظ…ظ†غŒظ‡ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† طھط·ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط§ظ† ظ…ط¹ ظ…ط§ط°ظƒظ„ط§ ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ‡ ع¾ظˆ
ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ظ„ظ…ط¯ط© ط¹ط´ط± ط³ظ†ظˆط§طھ ط§ظˆ ط®ظ…ط³ط³ظ†ظˆط§طھ طھظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ط§.
ظˆظ„ط°ظ„ظƒ ظپط§ظ† ط§ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„طھط§ظ„ظٹظٹط¨غŒظ† ط¨ط§ظ† ع¾ظ†ط§ظƒ ظ…ط§ط²ط§ظ„ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظƒط¨غŒط± ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆ ظˆط§ظ„ظ†ط§ط³ط¯ط§ظƒ ظˆط¨ط¹ط¶
ط§ظ† ظ„ظ… طھطھظ…ظƒظ† ظ…ظ† طھط¬ط§ظˆط² 20 ط¯ظˆظ„ط§ط± ظپظ‚ط¯ طھطµظ„ intc ط§ظ„ط§ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¯ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط¨ط¹غŒط¯ ظˆظ…ط«ط§ظ„ط§ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ط°ظ„ظƒ
ط§ظ„ظ‰ 5 ط¯ظˆظ„ط§ط±ط§طھ طھظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ط§ ظ…ط³طھظ‚ط¨ظ„ط§.
ظ†ط¹ظˆط¯ ظ„ظ…ظˆط¶ظˆط¹ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬-
ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط¬ ظ… ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظˆط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ع¾ظˆ ط¹ط¨ط§ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ†ط¹ط§ظƒط§ط³ظٹ ط§ظٹ ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط³ط± ظٹظ‚ط§ط¨ظ„ظ‡
ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ†.
ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط¹ط§ط¯ظٹ ظٹظ†ط·ط¨ظ‚ ط¯ط§ط¦ظ…ط§ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¹ظƒظˆط³ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط­ط³ط¨

ط§ظ„طھط§ظٹظ… ظپط±ظٹظ… ط§ظ„ظ…ط³طھط®ط¯ظ…

ظˆظٹظƒظˆظ† ط§ظƒط«ط± ط«ظ‚ظ‡ ط§ظˆ ظ…ظˆط«ظˆظ‚ ط¨ظ‡ ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆع¾ظˆ ط§ظٹط¶ط§ ظٹظ…ط«ظ„ ظ‚ظˆط© ط§ظ„ط¹ط±ط¶ظˆط§ظ„ط·ظ„ط¨
ط§ظ„طھظٹطھظˆط¶ط­ ظ…ط±ط­ظ„ط© ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظپطھط±ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ…ط·ظ„ظˆط¨ظ‡ ط¨ط­غŒط«ظٹط²ظٹط¯ ط§ظ„ط·ظ„ط¨ ط«ظ… ظٹطھط³ط§ظˆظ‰ ط«ظ… ظٹظ†ط®ظپط¶ظˆ
ط§ظ„ط¹ظƒط³.

ظˆظٹظƒظˆظ† ط­ط¯ظˆط«ظ‡ ظƒط§ظ„طھط§ظ„ظٹ
ظٹط±طھظپط¹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ† ظٹطµظ„ ظ„ظ‚ظ…ط© ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط³ط± ظˆط¨ط¹ط¯ع¾ط§ ظٹظ†ط²ظ„ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ† ظٹطµظ„ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ„ظ‰
ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ظˆط¨ط°ظ„ظƒ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظ‚ط¯ ط§ط³ط³ط¯ط¹ظ… ظˆع¾ظˆ ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ظˆط¹ظ†ط¯ع¾ط§ ظٹطھط¯ط®ظ„ ط§ظ„ظ…ط´طھط±ظٹظ† ظˆظٹط±ظپط¹ظˆ
ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظپط§ط°ط§ طھط¬ط§ظˆط²ظˆط§ ظ‚ظ…ط© ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط³ط± ظ„ظ…ط³طھظˆظ‰ ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ظپغŒط¹ظ†ظٹط¨ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ‚ط¯ ظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظپظٹ
ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظˆط¨ط·ط¨غŒط¹ط© ط§ظ„ط­ط§ظ„ ظپط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظ„ظƒط¨غŒط± ظٹط¹ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§ظٹط¶ط§ ظˆع¾ظ†ط§ ظٹط¯ط®ظ„ ط¨ط§ط¦ط¹ظˆظ† ط¬ط¯ط¯ ط¹ظ„ظ‰
ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆط§ظ„ظ…ط´طھط±ظٹظ† ط§ظٹط¶ط§ طھظ†ط®ظپط¶ظ‚ظˆطھع¾ظ… ط§ظ„ط´ط±ط§ط¦غŒظ‡ ظˆط¹ط²ظˆظپع¾ظ… ظپغŒط¤ط¯ظٹ ط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ط§ظ„ظ‰ ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ط¯ط¹ظ… ط§ظ„ظ‚ط¯ظٹظ…ظ‡ ط§ظˆ ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ظˆع¾ظ†ط§ ظٹطھط¯ط®ظ„ ط§ظ„ظ…ط´طھط±ظˆظ† ظ„ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆطµظ„ ط¯ط¹ظ… ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚
ظˆظ‚ظˆظٹ ظˆظٹط¨ط¯ط§ط، ط±ط§ظ„ظٹطµط؛غŒط± ظˆظ…ظپط§ط¬ظٹط، ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ظٹظپط´ظ„ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ط±ط§ظ„ظٹ ظپظٹطھط¬ط§ظˆط² ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ظ‚ظ…ظ‡ ظپظٹ
ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظˆط¨ط°ظ„ظƒ ظٹظƒظˆظ† طھظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظ„ط§ظ† ظ…ظ† ط´ط±ظˆط·ظ‡ ط§ظ† ظ„ط§ طھطھط¬ط§ظˆط² ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ط¨ط¯ظˆظ†

ط§ظ„ط§ط®ط° ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط¹طھط¨ط§ط± ظ‚ظ…ظ… ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ظپظ„غŒط³ط´ط±ط·ط§ ط§ظ† طھظƒظˆظ† ظ…طھط³ط§ظˆظٹظ‡ ظپظٹ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ظٹط¬ط¨

Forex Charts Models 5

ط§ظ† ظ„ط§ طھظƒظˆظ† ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ظ…ظ† ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ظ‚ظ…ظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³.
ظˆط¹ظ†ط¯ ظپط´ظ„ ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ† ظپظٹط§ظ„ظˆطµظˆظ„ ظ„ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ظ‚ظ…ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظپط§ظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ظٹط¤ط¯ظٹ ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط®ظˆظپ
ط§ظ„ظ…ط³طھط«ظ…ط±ظٹظ† ظˆط§ظ„ظ…ط¶ط§ط±ط¨غŒظ† ظˆط¹ط²ظˆظپع¾ظ… ط¹ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆظٹطھط¹ط±ط¶ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ„ط¨غŒط¹ ظˆط¨ط¯ط§ظٹط© ط¯ط®ظˆظ„ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¬ط§ظ†ط¨ ط§ظ„ط³ظ„ط¨ظٹظˆظ…ط§ ظٹط­ط¯ط« ط¨ط¹ط¯ع¾ط§ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¹ط¨ط§ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ط±ط§ظ„غŒط§طھ ط¨ط³غŒط·ظ‡ ظˆط¶ط¹غŒظپظ‡ ظ…ظ† ط¶ظ…طھ
ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§ظƒط¨ط±.
ظˆظ„ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط§ع¾ظ…غŒط© ظƒط¨ط±ظ‰ ظپظٹ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط¯ظˆظ† ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط§ط®ط±ظ‰ ظˆط¨ط§ظ„ط°ط§طھ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡

ظˆط§ظ„ظ‚ظ…ظ… ظ„ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظˆط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ†. ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظپط§ظ† ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¶ط¹غŒظپ ظˆط§ظ‚ظ„
ظ…ظ…ط§ ظ‚ط¨ظ„ ظˆع¾ط°ط§ ظٹط¯ظ„ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ط´طھط±ظٹظ† ط¨ط¯ط§ظˆط، ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط³ط­ط§ط¨ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ† ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ‚ظ„
ظ…ظ…ط§ط³ط¨ظ‚ ظˆع¾ط°ط§ ظ…ط§ ظٹط¬ط¹ظ„ظ‡ ط؛غŒط± ظ‚ط§ط¯ط± ط§ظ† ظٹطھط¬ط§ظˆط² ظ‚ظ…ط© ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³.
ط§ظƒطھظ…ط§ظ„ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظƒط³ط± ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ظ…ط¹ ط­ط¬ظ… طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظƒط¨غŒط±.
ظˆظ†ظپط³ط§ظ„ط´ظٹط، ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¹ظƒظˆط³ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ظ…ظ‚ظ„ظˆط¨ ظˆع¾ظˆ ط§ظ„ط°ظٹ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط­ط¯ظˆط«ظ‡ ط؛ط§ظ„ط¨ط§ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ†
طھط±ظ†ط¯. ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¹ظƒط³ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظˆط§ظ„ظƒطھظپغŒظ† ط§ظ„ط¹ط§ط¯ظٹ ط§ظ„ط°ظٹ ظٹط­ط¯ط« ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ . ظ…ظ† ظ†ط§ط­غŒط© ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„
ظˆط¹ظƒط³ظ‡ ظ…ظ† ظ†ط§ط­غŒط© ط­ط§ظ„ط© ط­ط¯ظˆط«ظ‡.
ظˆظ†ظپط³ط§ظ„ط´ظٹط، ظپظٹط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظ„ط§ع¾ظ…غŒطھظ‡ ط­غŒط« ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط³ط± ظ…طµط­ظˆط¨ط§ ط¨طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظƒط¨غŒط± ظˆط¹ظ†ط¯
ط§ظ„ط±ط§ط³ظٹظ†ط®ظپط¶ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظˆظٹط¬ط¨ ط§ظ† ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ظƒطھظپ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ† ط§ظ‚ظ„ طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ط§ ظ…ظ…ط§ ط³ط¨ظ‚ . ظˆط¹ظ†ط¯ ظƒط³ط±
ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ظ…طµط­ظˆط¨ط§ ط¨ط­ط¬ظ… طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظƒط¨غŒط±.

آ 

ط§ظ„ظ…ظ‚طµظˆط¯ ط¨ط§ظ„ظپطھط±ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط²ظ…ظ†غŒظ‡ ع¾ظˆ طھط·ط¨غŒظ‚ ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ طھط·ط¨غŒظ‚ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظٹ ظپطھط±ظ‡ ظ…ظ…ظƒظ† ط´ط§ط±طھ
ظٹظˆظ…ظٹ ط§ظˆ ط³ط§ط¹ظ‡ ط§ظˆ ط§ط³ط¨ظˆط¹ظٹظˆظ…ظ…ظƒظ† ط´ط§ط±طھ ظ„ظ…ط¯ظ‡ 5ط³ظ†ظˆط§طھ ط§ظˆ ط³ظ†ظ‡ ط§ظˆ ط´ع¾ط± ظˆع¾ظƒط°ط§

ظˆظ…ط«ط§ظ„ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط°ظ„ظƒ ظپظ‚ط¯ ط§ط®طھط±طھ ظ„ظƒ ط¬ط²ط، ط¨ط³غŒط· ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ظ…ظˆط¬ظˆط¯ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ط¦ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ…ظ„ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬
ظˆط¹ظ„ظ‰ ظˆط´ظƒ ط§ظ† ظٹظ†ط·ط¨ظ‚ ظ„ظˆ ظ„ط§ ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظƒط³ظˆط§ط±طھظپط¹

Forex Charts Models 6

ظپظ…ظ† ط´ط±ظˆط·ظ‡ ط§ظ† ظٹظƒط³ط± ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط±ظ‚ط¨ظ‡ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظˆع¾ط°ط§ ظƒظ…ظ„ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ظ„ظ… ظٹط¤ظƒط¯ظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ط®ط± ظ„ط­ط¸ظ‡

)-Wedges -ط§ظ„ط§ط³ظپغŒظ† (ط§ظ„ظˆطھط¯
ظˆع¾ظˆ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط®ط§ظ…ط³ظˆظٹظ†ظ‚ط³ظ… ط§ظ„ظ‰ظ‚ط³ظ…غŒظ† ط§ظ„ط¨ظˆظ„ط´ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظˆط§ط­ط¯ ظˆط§ظ„ط¨غŒط±ظٹط´ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„
2 ظˆظƒظ„ط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ظ…ط«ظ„ط« ط°ظˆ ط²ط§ظˆظٹظ‡ ط­ط§ط¯ظ‡ ظˆظٹط®طھظ„ظپ ط¹ظ…ط§ ط³ط¨ظ‚ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط¨طµظپط© ( ط§ظ†ط­ط¯ط§ط±ظ‡ -ظˆط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ظ‡)
ط¨ط´ظƒظ„ ط§ظƒط¨ط± ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡
ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظˆط§ط­ط¯ ظ†ط¬ط¯ ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«غŒظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ظ†ط­ط¯ط±ظ‡ ظˆظƒظ„ط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ط¨ظˆظ„ط´ط§ط°ط§ ط­ط¯ط«ط§ ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط³ظˆط§ط، ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظپظٹ
ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظˆ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظپط§ظ†ظ‡ ظ…ع¾ظٹط، ظ„ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظˆظٹطھط´ظƒظ„ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظˆط¹ ط¨ظƒط«ط±ظ‡ ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆظ„ظƒظ†
ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ†ط¹ ط§ظ† ظٹطھط´ظƒظ„ ط·ط¨ط¹ط§ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯

ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 2 ظ†ط¬ط¯ ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«غŒظ† ط§ظ„طµط§ط¹ط¯ظ‡ ظˆظƒظ„ط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ط¨غŒط±ظٹط´ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط­ط¯ظˆط«ع¾ظ…ط§ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط³ظˆط§ط،
ظƒط§ظ† ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظˆ ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆظٹظƒظˆظ† ع¾ظ†ط§ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ…ع¾ظٹط، ظ„ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظˆظٹطھط´ظƒظ„ ط¹ط§ط¯ط© ع¾ط°ط§
ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط¨ظƒط«ط±ظ‡ ظپظٹط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظپظٹ ط­ط§ظ„ط© ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ†ط¹ ط§ظ† ظٹطھط´ظƒظ„ ظپظٹ
ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯.

ظˆظƒظ„ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬غŒظ† ظˆط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡ ع¾ظٹظ‚ط§ط¹ط¯ظ‡ ظ‚ط¯ طھطھظپظ‚ ط¨ظ†ط³ط¨ط© ظƒط¨غŒط±ظ‡ ط·ط¨ط¹ط§ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ظٹط¬ط¨ ط§ظ†
ظ†ط¹ط±ظپ ط§ظ† ظ„ظƒظ„ ظ‚ط§ط¹ط¯ط© ط´ظˆط§ط°.
ظˆط§ظ„ظپط±ظ‚ ط¨غŒظ† ع¾ط°ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ظˆط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡ ظˆط§ط¶ط­ ط¬ط¯ط§ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظ…ظ‚ط§ط±ظ†ط© ط²ظˆط§ظٹط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ظˆط§طھط¬ط§ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط§ط¶ظ„ط§ط¹
ظ„ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط­غŒط« ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھظ‡ ط§ظƒط«ط± ط§ظ†ط­ط¯ط§ط±ط§ ظˆط§ظƒط«ط± ط­ط¯ط© ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ظˆط§ط¹ ط§ظ„ط§ط®ط±ظ‰
ط§ظ„طھظٹ ط°ظƒط±طھ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط¶ظˆط¹ط§طھ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡ ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ‡ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ط²ظˆط§ظٹط§ ط§ظƒط«ط± ط­ط¯ط©.
ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ظ…ط§ط³ط¨ظ‚ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ظ‡ ظ…ظ†ع¾ظ…ط§ ط§ط­ط¯ظ‰ ط²ظˆط§ظٹط§ظ‡ ط¨ط®ط· ط§ظپظ‚ظٹ
ظˆظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط« ط§ظ„ظ…طھظ†ط§ط³ط¨ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط§ط¶غŒط¹ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡ ط§ط¶ظ„ط§ط¹ظ‡ ظ…طھظ†ط§ط³ط¨ظ‡ ظˆط¨ط²ط§ظˆظٹظ‡ ظˆط§ط­ط¯ظ‡ ظ…طھظ…ط§ط«ظ„ظ‡آ 

آ 

-Flags and Pennants 6- ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… ظˆط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ†

آ 

آ 

Forex Charts Models 7

ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¯ط³ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¹ط¨ط§ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط´ط¨غŒظ‡ ط¨ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… ط§ظ„ط¹ط§ط¯ظٹظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 1 ظˆ 2 ظˆط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ…
ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ظ‡ ظˆع¾ظٹط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ† ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 3 ظˆ 4 ظˆط§ظ„طھط³ظ…غŒظ‡ ط§طھطھ ظ…ظ† ط´ظƒظ„ ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ظ‡
ط§ظ„طھظٹطھط³طھط®ط¯ظ… ظƒط¹ظ„ط§ظ…ط§طھ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ†
ظˆط¨ط§ط®طھطµط§ط± ط¨ط³غŒظƒ ظپط§ظ† ط¬ظ…غŒط¹ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط§ط±ط¨ط¹ظ‡ ع¾ظٹط¨ظ…ط«ط§ط¨ط© ط§ط³طھط±ط§ط­ظ‡ ط¨ط³غŒط·ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆظ„ط§ طھط؛غŒط± ظپظٹ
ظ…ط³ط§ط±ظ‡ ظˆطھط­ط¯ط« ط¹ط§ط¯ط© ط¨ط¹ط¯ ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظƒط¨غŒط± ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظˆ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظƒط¨غŒط± ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ظˆط¯ط§ط¦ظ… ط§ظ„ط¯ط®ظˆظ„ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹظƒط³ط± ط§ظ„ط®ط·ظˆط· ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط¶ط­ظ‡ ظپظٹظƒظ„ ط´ظƒظ„ ظˆع¾ظٹ ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط§ط®ط¶ط±
ظپظٹ ط­ط§ظ„ط© ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظ…ط¹ ط²ظٹط§ط¯ط© ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„

ظˆط§ظ„ط®ط±ظˆط¬ ط§ظٹط¶ط§ ظپظٹ ط­ط§ظ„ ط§ظ„ط¯ط®ظˆظ„ ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ط®طھط±ط§ظ‚ ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ„ظٹظ…ط¹ ط²ظٹط§ط¯ظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„
ظ„ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ظˆظ„ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظƒط³ط±ظ‡ ظ„ط§ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ظٹط¹ظ†ظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط³طھظ…ط±ط§ط± ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظ…ط«ظ„ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 1 ظˆ 3
ظˆط§ظ„ط«ط§ظ†ظٹ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظƒط³ط±ظ‡ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ط³ظپظ„ ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¹ظ„ظ… ظٹط¹ظ†ظٹظ…ظˆط§طµظ„ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط±ط­ظ„ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظ…ط«ظ„
ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 2 ظˆ 4
ظ‚ط¯ طھظƒظˆظ† ع¾ظ†ط§ظƒ ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط§ط¶غŒط¹ ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ‡ ظ…ط´ط§ط¨ع¾ظ‡ ظ„ع¾ط§ ظ„ظƒظ† ط§ظ„ظپط±ظ‚ ع¾ظˆ ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظپع¾ط°ظ‡
ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… طھظƒظˆظ† ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ„طھظٹ ط§ط±طھظپط¹طھ ط¨ط´ظƒظ„ ظƒط¨غŒط± ظˆط¨ط³ط±ط¹ظ‡ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„طھظٹ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط¶طھ ظƒط°ظ„ظƒ
ط¨ط´ظƒظ„ ظƒط¨غŒط± ظˆط³ط±ظٹط¹
ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ظپط±ظ‚ ظپظٹط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظ†ظپط³ظ‡ ظپط§ظ† ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ… طھظƒظˆظ† ط§طµط؛ط± ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط­ط¬ظ….
ع¾ط°ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط³ع¾ظ„ظ‡ ط¬ط¯ط§ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„طھظٹ ط°ظƒط±طھ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط§ط¶غŒط¹ ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ‡ ظˆط¨ط­ط§ط¬ظ‡ ظ„ظ…ظ…ط§ط±ط³ظ‡ ظ„ع¾ط§ ظˆظ…طھط§ط¨ط¹ظ‡
ظˆظ…ط¹ ط§ظ„ط²ظ…ظ† ط³ظˆظپ طھط¬ط¯ ظ†ظپط³ظƒ طھط¹ط±ظپ ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظٹظ† ظٹطھط¬ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¨ظ…ط¬ط±ط¯ ظ†ط¸ط±ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ظˆط³ظˆظپ طھط¬ط¯
طµط¹ظˆط¨ظ‡ ظ†ظˆط¹ط§ ظ…ط§ ظپظٹطھط·ط¨غŒظ‚ع¾ط§ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ظ…ط¹ ط§ظ„ط²ظ…ظ† ظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ظˆظ…طھط§ط¨ط¹ط© ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھط§طھ ط³ظˆظپ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ط³ع¾ظ„ط§
ط¬ط¯ط§آ 

آ 

Forex Charts Models 8

-Rectangles -ط§ظ„ظ…ط³طھط·غŒظ„ط§طھ

آ 

آ 

ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¹ط¨ط§ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ط®ط·غŒظ† ظ…طھظˆط§ط²ظٹغŒظ† ظٹط´ظƒظ„ط§ظ† ظ…ط³طھط·غŒظ„ ط§ط­ط¯ط§ع¾ظ…ط§ ط®ط· ط¯ط¹ظ… ظˆط§ظ„ط§ط®ط± ظ…ظ‚ط§ظˆظ…ظ‡ ظˆط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ط­ط±ظƒطھظ‡ ط¨غŒظ†ع¾ظ…ط§ ط¨ط±ظ†ط¬ ظ…ط¹غŒظ† ظ…ط­طµظˆط± ط¨غŒظ† ع¾ط°ظٹظ† ط§ظ„ط®ط·غŒظ† . ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ظپط§ظ† ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط¯ط§ط¦ظ…ط§ ظ„ط§ظٹط؛غŒط±
ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§طھط¬ط§ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط§ط³ط§ط³ظٹط§ظٹ ط§ظ†ظ‡ ظٹط´ظƒظ„ ط§ط³طھظ…ط±ط§ط±ظٹط© ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط§ط³ط§ط³ظٹط؛ط§ظ„ط¨ط§
ط§ظٹ ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ط°ط§ ظƒط§ظ† ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ†ط²ظˆظ„ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظپط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 2 ظٹظ†ط·ط¨ظ‚ ط¹ظ„غŒظ‡ ظˆط¹ط§ط¯ط© ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ظٹظˆط§طµظ„ ع¾ط¨ظˆط·ظ‡
ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظˆط§ط­ط¯ ظٹطھظ…ط«ظ„ ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ظٹظˆط§طµظ„ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ظ‡ ط¯ط§ط¦ظ…ط§

ط§ظ„طھط§ظƒغŒط¯ ظ„ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ع¾ط¨ظˆط· ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¨ظƒط³ط± ط§ط­ط¯ظ‰ ع¾ط°ظٹظ† ط§ظ„ط®ط·غŒظ† ظ…ط¹ ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظ…ظ„ط­ظˆط¶ظپظٹ ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„
ظˆط¨ط¹ط¯ ع¾ط§ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ط°ط§ ظƒط³ط± ط§ظ„ط¯ط¹ظ… ظپط§ظ†ظ‡ ط³ظˆظپ ظٹظ†ط®ظپط¶ظ„طھط§ط³غŒط³ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط¯ط¹ظ… ط¬ط¯ظٹط¯ظ‡
ظˆظ†ظپط³ط§ظ„ط´ظٹط، ظپط§ظ†ظ‡ ط§ط°ط§ ظƒط³ط± ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ط§ظ„ظ…ظ‚ط§ظˆظ…ظ‡ ظٹطھط¬ظ‡ ظ„طھط§ط³غŒط³ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© ظ…ظ‚ط§ظˆظ…ظ‡ ط¬ط¯ظٹط¯ظ‡ ظ„ظ‡ ظˆط؛ط§ظ„ط¨ط§
ط§ظ„ظ†ظ‚ط§ط· ط§ظ„ط¬ط¯ظٹط¯ظ‡ ط¨ظ†ظپط³ط§ظ„ظپط±ظ‚ ظ„ظ„ط±ظ†ط¬ ظ†ظپط³ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ ط§ظ„ظ…ط­طµظˆط± ط¨غŒظ† ط§ظ„ط®ط·غŒظ†
ظˆط§ظ„ط§ظپط¶ظ„ طھط·ط¨غŒظ‚ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ط§ظ„غŒظˆظ…ظٹظˆظپطھط±ظ‡ ط§ظƒط¨ط± ظ…ظ† 20 ظٹظˆظ… ط§ظˆ ط§ط´ع¾ط± ط­طھظ‰ 10

ط³ظ†ظˆط§طھ ط§ظˆ 5ط³ظ†ظˆط§طھ.

آ 

Forex Charts Models 9

آ 

Double Bottom
ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¹ط¨ط§ط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ†ط¹ظƒط§ط³ظٹظٹط­ط¯ط« ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ظ†ط²ظˆظ„ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¹ظƒط³
ط§ظ„ط¯ط¨ظ„ طھظˆط¨ ظˆط§ظ„ط°ظٹ ظٹط­ط¯ط« ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹
ظˆع¾ظˆ ط§ظ†ط¹ظƒط§ط³ظٹ ظ„ط§ظ†ظ‡ ظٹط¹ظƒط³ط§ظ„ط§طھط¬ط§ظ‡ ط§ظٹ ع¾ظˆ ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© طھط­ظˆظ„ ظ…ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† ظˆط§ط°ط§ ظƒط§ظ†
ط§ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† ظٹط¹ظƒط³ط§طھط¬ط§ع¾ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯
ظˆظپظٹ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ظ…ع¾ظ… ط¨ط­غŒط« ظٹط±طھظپط¹ ظˆط¨ط´ظƒظ„ ط³ط±ظٹط¹ ظ…ط¹ ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظˆ

ط¹ظ…ظ„ ظƒط§ط¨ ط§ط¨ ط§ط­غŒط§ظ†ط§ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط§ظپطھطھط§ط­
ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ظٹظƒظˆظ† طھط·ط¨غŒظ‚ظ‡ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط´ط§ط±طھ ظ„ط§ظٹظ‚ظ„ ط¹ظ†ط´ع¾ط± ط¨غŒظ† ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§ظ„ط§ظˆظ„ ظˆط§ظ„ط«ط§ظ†ظٹ
ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ع¾ظ†ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ط§ط³ط¯ط§ظƒ ظ…ط®طھظ„ظپ ط¹ظ†ظ‡ ظˆظ‚ط¯ ظٹظ†ط·ط¨ظ‚ ط¹ظ„غŒظ‡ ظپظ„ط§ظٹظ…ظ†ط¹ ط°ظ„ظƒ
ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ظ„ظˆ ط­ط¯ط« ط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© 11 ط³ط¨طھظ…ط¨ط± ظپط³ظˆظپ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ظ…ط¤ظƒط¯.
ظ„ط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ط§ظ† ظ†ظ‚ط·ط© 11 ط³ط¨طھظ…ط¨ط± ط³ط§ط±طھ ظ…ظ‚ط§ظˆظ…ظ‡ ظ‚ظˆظٹظ‡ ظٹطµط¹ط¨ ظƒط³ط±ع¾ط§ ظˆع¾ظٹ 1378آ 

آ 

ظ†ظˆط¹غŒظ† ظ„ظ„ط¯ظپط±ط¬ظ†ط³ ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط¬ط§ط¨ ظٹظˆط§ظ„ط³ظ„ط¨ظٹ
ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط¬ط§ط¨ظٹظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹطھط¬ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¤ط´ط± ظ…ط¹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ظˆط§ظ„ط³ظ„ط¨ظٹ ع¾ظˆ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¹ط§ظƒط³ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ظˆظ„غŒط³ظپظ‚ط· ط§ظ„ط§طھط¬ط§ظ‡ ظˆط§ظ†ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ‚ط§ط· ط§ظ„ظ…ط³ط¬ظ„ظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¤ط´ط±
ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط³ط¨غŒظ„ ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ط§ظ„ ط§ط°ط§ ط¹ظ…ظ„ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ†غŒظˆ ط¬ط¯ظٹط¯ ظˆط§ظ„ظ…ط¤ط´ط± ط§ظ„ظ…ط§ظƒط¯ ظ…ط«ظ„ط§ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط³طھظˆظƒ ط§ط³طھغŒظƒ ط¹ظ…ظ„
ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظˆظ„ظ… ظٹطµظ„ ط§ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظ‡ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ†ظ‚ط·ظ‡ ط§ظ„طھظٹظˆطµظ„ع¾ط§ ظ‚ط¨ظ„ ظپع¾ط°ط§ ظٹط¹ط·ظٹ ظپظƒط±ظ‡ ط¹ظ† ط§ظ…ظƒط§ظ†غŒط©
ط§ظ„ط¯ط®ظˆظ„ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ….

ط®ط±ط¬طھ ظ‚ظ„غŒظ„ط§ ط¹ظ† ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ط§ط±ط¯طھ ط°ظƒط± ع¾ط°ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ‚ط§ط· ظ„ط§ع¾ظ…غŒطھع¾ط§ ظˆظ„ط¹ظ„ط§ظ‚طھع¾ط§ ط¨ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط¶ظˆط¹ ظˆظ„ظ†ط§
ط¹ظˆط¯ظ‡ ظ„ع¾ط§ ط¨ط§ظ„طھظپطµغŒظ„
ظˆظ…ظˆط¬ظˆط¯ ط¹ظ†ظ‡ ط¨ط¹ط¶ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط§ط¶غŒط¹ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„طھط­ظ„غŒظ„ ط§ظ„ظپظ†ظٹ ط°ظƒط±طھ ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ط§ obv ظ…ط«ظ„ط§ ط´ط±ط® ظ…طھظƒط§ظ…ظ„ ط¹ظ† ط§ظ„
ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ط±ط¬ظˆط§ ظ…ظ† ط§ط®ظٹ ط§ط¨ظˆظ†ط§طµط± ط°ظƒط± ط§ظ„ط¯ظپغŒط±ط¬ظ†ط³ط§ظٹط¶ط§ ط¨ط´ظƒظ„ ط§ظƒط«ط± ظ„ط§ع¾ظ…غŒطھظ‡ ظˆطµط¹ظˆط¨طھظ‡ ظˆطھظˆط¶غŒط­
ظƒغŒظپغŒط© ط§ظ„طھط¹ط§ظ…ظ„ ظ…ط¹ظ‡
ظˆظ†ط¹ظˆط¯ ظ„ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظ…ط«ظ„ ظ…ط§ظ‚ظ„ظ†ط§ ع¾ظˆ ط§ظ„ظˆظ‚ظˆط¯ ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظپط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظƒظ„ظ…ط§ ط§ط´طھط¯ ط§ظˆ
ط²ط§ط¯ ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظƒظ„ظ…ط§ ظƒط§ظ† ظ…ظˆط§طµظ„ط© ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظ…ظ…ظƒظ†ظ‡
ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظƒط³ط± ط§ظ„ظ†ظ‚ط§ط· ظپظٹ ع¾ط°ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ط°ط§ ظƒط§ظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ط¨ط­ط¬ظ… طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط§ظƒط¨ط± ظپغŒط¹ظ†ظٹط§ظ„ط§ط³طھظ…ط±ط§ط± ظپظٹ
ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹
ط§ظ…ط§ ط§ط°ط§ ظƒط§ظ† ط¨ط­ط¬ظ… طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظ‚ظ„غŒظ„ ظپغŒط¹ظ†ظٹط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط¶ط¹غŒظپ.
ظˆظ†ظپط³ط§ظ„ط´ظٹط، ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظپط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظ‡ ط¨ط­ط¬ظ… طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظƒط¨غŒط± ظپع¾ط°ط§ ظ…ط®غŒظپ ط¬ط¯ط§
ظˆظ…ظ…ظƒظ† ظ…ظˆط§طµظ„ط© ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§ظ„ظ‰ط§ظ† ظٹط¨ط¯ط§ط، ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط¨ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظˆع¾ظˆ ظ…ط§ظٹط­ط¯ط« ط¯ط§ط¦ظ…ط§ ط¹ظ†ط¯
ظ†ظ‚ط§ط· ط§ظ„ط¯ط¹ظ… ظˆط§ظ„ظ…ظ‚ط§ظˆظ…ظ‡ ظپط§ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ظ„ط§ط­ط¸ ط¹ظ„غŒع¾ط§ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط°ظٹ ظٹط¬ط¨ ط§ظ† ظٹظ„ط§ط­ط¸ ظپظٹع¾ط°ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط­ط§ظ„ظ‡ ع¾ظˆ ط­ط¬ظ…
ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„
ط§ظٹ ط§ظ† ط§ظ„طھط±ظƒغŒط² ظٹط¬ط¨ ط§ظ† ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¹ظ„ظ‰ط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط¹ظ†ط¯ ظˆطµظˆظ„ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ„ط¯ط¹ظ… ط§ظˆ ظ…ظ‚ط§ظˆظ…ظ‡.
ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ظٹط®طھظ„ظپ ط°ظ„ظƒ ظپظٹ ط­ط§ظ„طھغŒظ† ظˆع¾ظ…ط§ ط­ط§ظ„ط© ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯آ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ط°ط§ ظƒط§ظ† ط¨طµظپظ‡ ط¹ط§ظ…ظ‡ ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظٹ ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط¬ظ‡ ط§ظ„ظƒط¨غŒط±ظ‡ ع¾ظٹ ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط¨ط§ظ„طھط§ظƒغŒط¯ ظٹطھط®ظ„ظ„ع¾ط§
ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§طھ ظˆظپظٹ ع¾ط°ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§طھ ظٹط¬ط¨ ط§ظ† ظٹظ‚ظ„ ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظپغŒع¾ط§ ط¹ظ† ط§ظ„ط§ظٹط§ظ… ط§ظ„طھظٹظٹط±طھظپط¹ ظپغŒع¾ط§ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…

Forex Charts Models 10

ط§ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„ط­ط§ظ„ظ‡ ط§ظ„ط«ط§ظ†غŒظ‡ ظˆع¾ظٹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظپط§ظ† ظپظٹظƒظ„ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظٹظƒظˆظ†
ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط§ظƒط«ط± ظ…ظ†ظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ط§طھ ظ„ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§طµظ„ط§ ظٹطھط¬ظ‡ ظپظٹ ظ…ظˆط¬طھظ‡ ط§ظ„ظƒط¨غŒط±ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶
ط§ط°ط§ ط­ط¯ط« ط؛غŒط± ط°ظ„ظƒ ظپط§ظ† ع¾ط°ط§ ظٹط¹ظ†ظٹط§ظ† ع¾ظ†ط§ظƒ ط§ظ…ط± ظ…ط§ ظ‚ط¯ ظٹط¹ظ†ظٹ ط§ظ†ط¹ظƒط§ط³ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯.ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظٹظپظ‚ط¯ ظ‚ظˆطھظ‡
ط³ظˆط§ط، ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظˆع¾ظ†ط§ طھظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ„ظ…طھط§ط¨ط¹ط©
ظˆظ…ط¹ط±ظپظ‡ ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ط§ظ„ظ‚ظˆظٹ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط¶ط¹غŒظپ ظˆظƒط°ظ„ظƒ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط§ظ„ظ‚ظˆظٹ ظˆط§ظ„ط¶ط¹غŒظپ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¨ظ…ظ‚ط§ط±ظ†ظ‡ ط­ط¬ظ…
ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظپط§ط°ط§ ظƒط§ظ† ع¾ظ†ط§ظƒ ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط­ط¯ط« ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظ…ط¹غŒظ† ظˆظƒط§ظ† ظƒط¨غŒط±ط§ ط§ظٹ ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ†ط®ظپط¶ط§ظƒط«ط± ظ…ظ†
10 ط§ظˆ 20 ط¨ط§ظ„ظ…ط¦ظ‡ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ط¨طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط§ظ‚ظ„ ظ†ط³ط¨غŒط§ ظپط§ظ† ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ط¶ط¹غŒظپ ط§ظٹ ط§ظ†ظ‡ ظ‚ط¯ ظ„ط§ظٹط³طھظ…ط±

ظˆط§طھظ‚ط§ظ† ط§ط³طھط®ط¯ط§ظ…ظ‡ط³ظˆظپ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظƒط§ظپغŒط§ ظ„ظ…طھط§ط¨ط¹ط© ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظپع¾ظˆ ظٹط¹ط·ظٹط®ظ„ط§طµط© ع¾ط°ظ‡ obv ظˆظ…ط¤ط´ط± ط§ظ„
ط§ظ„ظ†ظ‚ط§ط· طھظ‚ط±ظٹط¨ط§ ظˆظ…ظ† ظ…ظ…غŒط²ط§طھ ط§ظ„ظ…ط¤ط´ط±ط§طھ ط§ظ†ع¾ط§ طھظپغŒط¯ ظپظٹ ط§ظ…ظˆط± ظپظ†غŒظ‡ ظƒط«غŒط±ظ‡ ظˆع¾ظٹ ط¬ظ…غŒط¹ط§ ط§ط³ط§ط³ط§

طھط¹طھظ…ط¯ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط³ط¹ط± ظˆط­ط¬ظ… ط§ظ„طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظˆط§ظ„ظ…ط¯ظ‡.
طµظˆط±ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ظ†ظ…ط§ط°ط¬ ط§ظ„ط§ظ†ط¹ظƒط§ط³غŒط© ظ…ط¬طھظ…ط¹ط©

آ 

آ 

آ - Ascending Triangles – ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط§ظ„طھطµط§ط¹ط¯ظٹط©

آ 

ظˆع¾ط°ط§ ع¾ظˆ ط§ظ„ظ†ظˆط¹ ط§ظ„ط«ط§ظ†ظٹظˆع¾ظˆ ط¨ظˆظ„ط´ظˆظٹط­ط¯ط« ط¯ط§ط¦ظ…ط§ ط¨ظ†ظپط³ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ط§ظ„ظ…ظˆط¶ط­ ط¨ط§ظ„ط±ط³ظ… ط´ظƒظ„

آ 

آ 

1 ظˆط°ظ„ظƒ ظپظٹط­ط§ظ„ط© ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹط±طھظپط¹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆظٹطµط¨ط­ ط§ظˆظپط± ط¨ظˆطھ ظˆط¹ظ†ط¯ع¾ط§ ظٹط¨ط¯ط§ط، ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ظپظٹ ط§ظ„طھط±ط¯ط¯ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ط¨ظ…ط¬ط±ط¯ ط§ظ† ظٹط®طھط±ظ‚ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظٹط±طھظپط¹ ط¨ط´ظƒظ„
ظƒط¨غŒط± ظˆظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¹ط§ط¯ظ‡ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ظ…طµط­ظˆط¨ط§ ط¨ط­ط¬ظ… طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ط¹ط§ظ„ظٹ

ظˆط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظ…ط«ظ„ط« ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط¹ظ„ظˆظٹ ظ…ط³طھظˆظٹ ط§ظˆ ظپظ„ط§طھ ظˆع¾ظˆ ط§ظ„ط°ظٹ ظٹظپط±ظ‚ ط¹ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«
ط§ظ„ظ…طھظ…ط§ط«ظ„ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¨ظˆظ„ط´ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ 1 ط§ط¹ظ„ط§ظ‡ . ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط°ظٹ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط³ظپظ„ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„ط®ط·
ظٹظƒظˆظ† طھطµط§ط¹ط¯ظٹ.
ظˆط§ظٹط¶ط§ ظ…ط«ظ„ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 2 ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط±ط³ظ… ط§ط¯ظ†ط§ظ‡ ظ„ط´ط§ط±طھ ط­ظ‚غŒظ‚ظٹط­ط¯ط« ظ„ظ‡ ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ طھظ…ط§ظ…ط§
ظˆظٹطھط¶ط­ ط§ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹ ظپغŒظ‡
ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¯ظ„ط§ظ„ظ‡ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ظ‚ظˆظ‡ ط§ظ„ط´ط±ط§ط¦غŒظ‡ ظ‚ط¯ طھظ†ط§ظ‚طµطھ ظ„ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظˆظپط± ط¨ظˆطھ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ط¨ظ…ط¬ط±ط¯
ظƒط³ط± ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ظ…ط³طھظˆظٹ ظپظٹط§ظ„ط§ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ظ…ط¹ طھط¯ط§ظˆظ„ ظپط§ظ† ط°ظ„ظƒ ظٹط¹ظ†ظٹط¨ط§ظ† ع¾ظ†ط§ظƒ ظ‚ظˆط© ط´ط±ط§ط،
ط¬ط¯ظٹط¯ظ‡ ط¯ط®ظ„طھ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظˆط³ظˆظپ ظٹط±طھظپط¹ ط¨ط§ط°ظ† ط§ظ„ظ„ظ‡ظˆظٹط¹ظ…ظ„ ط¨ط±ظٹظƒ ط§ظˆطھ.

آ - Descending Triangles 3- ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط§ظ„ظ…ظ†ط­ط¯ط±ظ‡
ط§ظ„ظ…ط«ظ„ط«ط§طھ ط§ظ„ظ…ظ†ط­ط¯ط±ظ‡ ط§ظˆ ط§ظ„طھظ†ط§ط²ظ„غŒظ‡ ظˆع¾ظٹظ…ط®طھظ„ظپظ‡ ط¹ظ† ط§ظ„ظ…طھظ…ط§ط«ظ„ظ‡ ظˆط¹ظƒط³ط§ظ„طھطµط§ط¹ط¯ظٹظ‡ ظˆط¹ط§ط¯ط© طھظˆط¬ط¯
ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„طھطµط§ط¹ط¯ظٹظ‡ طھظƒط«ط± ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط§ط¨ طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظˆع¾ظˆ ط¹ط§ط¯ط© ط¨غŒط±ظٹط´.
ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹط­ط¯ط« ع¾ط°ط§ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط¯ط§ظˆظ† طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظپط؛ط§ظ„ط¨ط§ ظٹط­ط¯ط« ط§ظ†ط®ظپط§ط¶ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ…
ط§ظ„ظپط±ظ‚ ط¨غŒظ†ظ‡ ظˆط¨غŒظ† ط§ظ„طھطµط§ط¹ط¯ظٹ ظˆع¾ظˆ ظ…ظˆط¶ط­ ظپظٹط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 1 ط§ظ„طھطµط§ط¹ط¯ظٹ ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط§ظ„ط¬ط²ط، ط§ظ„ط¹ظ„ظˆظٹ ظ…ط³طھظˆظٹ

ظˆط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ„ظٹظ…ط§ط¦ظ„ ظ„ظ„ط§ط±طھظپط§ط¹

Forex Charts Models 3

ط¨غŒظ†ظ…ط§ ط§ظ„ظ†ظ…ظˆط°ط¬ ط§ظ„طھظ†ط§ط²ظ„ظٹ -ط§ظ„ط¬ط²ط، ط§ظ„ط¹ظ„ظˆظٹ ظ…ظ†ط­ط¯ط± ظˆط§ظ„ط³ظپظ„ظٹظ…ط³طھظˆظٹ (ظپظ„ط§طھ(
ظˆظٹط¹ظ†ظٹط¨ط§ظ† ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹظ†ط²ظ„ ظˆظٹط¹ظ…ظ„ ط±ظٹطھغŒط³طھ ظ„ظ„ظ…ط³طھظˆظٹط§طھ ط§ظ„ط³ط§ط¨ظ‚ظ‡ ط¹ظ„ظ‰ ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط³ظپظ„ظٹ ظپط§ظ†
ط§ظ„ظ…ط´طھط±ظٹظ† ظٹط¹ظˆط¯ظˆظ† ظ„ظ„ط´ط±ط§ط، ظ…ط±ط© ط§ط®ط±ظ‰ ظˆظ„ظƒظ† ط§ظ„ط´ط±ط§ط، ظٹظƒظˆظ† ط¶ط¹غŒظپ ظˆظ…طھط±ط¯ط¯ظٹظ† ظ…ظ…ط§ ظٹط¹ظ†ظٹط¨ط§ظ†
ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط¹ظ†ط¯ظ…ط§ ظٹط¹ظˆط¯ ظ„ط§ ظٹطµظ„ ط§ظ„ظ‰ ظ…ط³طھظˆظٹط§طھ ط¹ظ„ظˆظٹظ‡ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ ظˆظ„ط°ظ„ظƒ ظپط§ظ† ط®ط· ط§ظ„طھط±ظ†ط¯ ظپظٹ
ط§ظ„ط´ظƒظ„ 1 ظٹظƒظˆظ† ظ…طھط¬ظ‡ ظ„ظ„ظ†ط²ظˆظ„ ظپظٹ ط§ظ„ط®ط· ط§ظ„ط¹ظ„ظˆظٹ ظ„ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… .ط¨غŒظ† ظƒظ„ ظ…ط±ظ‡ ظٹط¹ظˆط¯ ط§ظ„ط³ع¾ظ… ط§ظ„غŒظ‡ ظˆع¾ط°ط§
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Forex

Strange that term may pass through sometimes Vtaatsael what is it??
This article may answer your questions!!

I can simply tell you that the word Forex is an abbreviation for the term expression of foreign Foreign Exchange, which means short of speculation in the foreign exchange market or the global stock of currencies!!

Let me show you the beginning of what the stock market?
آ آ  We are daily buying and selling many different items that are displayed in shops, markets and venues such as food, clothes, cars, household appliances … And others.

آ آ  And typically find that each commodity market its own specificity, where he will meet with those interested in the product for them is the buying and selling at the rate determined by the forces of supply and demand.

آ آ  The stocks, bonds and currencies is one of those goods are exchanged between individuals, institutions and countries on a daily basis in huge quantities.

آ آ  Called the markets in which they are trading (buying and selling) this type of commodity bourses. And stock markets are all countries in the world and all its specialization and exchange, and the management of those States stock exchanges and the organization of work.

Currency Exchange!!
آ آ  Like any other stock exchanges where the sale and purchase of a country’s currency against the payment of another currency ..
آ آ  Example is the purchase of U.S. dollar to pay the single European currency (euro), or the opposite, ie, buying euros to pay the U.S. dollar an interview.

آ آ  Or buy the U.S. dollar to pay the Japanese yen, or vice versa.
آ آ  Or buy the U.S. dollar to pay the pound sterling, or vice versa.
آ آ  Or buy the U.S. dollar to pay for interview with the Swiss franc, or vice versa.
آ آ  Or purchase of any currency and pay for other currency as a price to it.

آ آ  Thus, it is displayed in the form of currency pairs to be sold one of those couples for the purchase of the other spouse, or vice versa

آ آ  The minor differences that arise between the exchange rates change as a result of the forces of supply and demand during the time can be used to make a profit from this market.

آ آ  Imagine that you’ve bought one euro now paid interview (1.2700), and after a short period change the euro to become (1.2800) so I did sell it again in this amount.

آ آ  Can now calculate your earnings (1.2800 – 1.2700 = 0.0010) clearly you won a penny of that process simple.

آ آ  But what if you’ve purchased (10000) euros, can not win in that transaction (100) dollars at once.

If I need large sums of money to take advantage of this market?
آ آ  Not .. You do not need large amounts to achieve huge profits in this market. In fact, you will not rely on money allocated for investment only!! As this market provides a unique system you can trade large amounts of money for the payment of small sums only.

This is called the system marginal!
آ آ  This enables you to trade the system in amounts of up to 200 times the amount that you are exploiting this bentonite and more. And keep the profits for yourself full.

آ آ  As well as the losses!! However, in all cases, your losses will not exceed the small amount that you start exploiting this bentonite. The sense that you will not be able to continue to lose if your capital losses exceeded the initial, and will not be required to pay any additional amounts above the amount that you initially exploiting this bentonite.

آ آ  The volume of transactions in the Forex market in steady growth. This development is significant in world trade and lifting the ban on currencies in many countries. The (80%) of all transactions is a speculation in the currency market aimed at obtaining profits from price differences. This speculation and attract many participants, both financial organizations or individual investors.

But how is the buying and selling these?
آ آ  The forex market is not a market in the literal sense of the word, since it has no center, no place has a certain exercise a trade. The trading exercised by contacting the telephone and Internet computer at one time among hundreds of banks around the world. Hundreds of millions of currency bought and sold every few seconds.

آ آ  Companies are specialized and licensed to receive buy and sell orders from investors for being implemented by them.

Called these companies Brokerage Firms (Brokerage firms) and in any case, it does not you can implement your orders directly without dealing with one of those companies.

آ It is in general the following sequence

آ· You choose a brokerage firm fit your goals and the individual realize that the contracted

آ· You open an account with that company and are registered your personal information, shall be the amount you wish to invest your account.

آ· Follow up the movement of prices through one of the specialized programs on your computer and give you buy and sell orders for brokerage firm through the trading platform.

آ· Company will be the implementation of your orders and any profits or losses will be added to or withdrawn from your account.

آ· You can of course withdraw your money from the company or add them at any time you like.

Communication between you and the brokerage company is through a special program called a workstation (Platform), and log in to this program through a user name and password is provided to you when you open an account in the company.
آ آ آ 
آ آ  This program enables you to follow the prices and give buy and sell orders and full control of your account. Of course, all these operations will be at your computer’s connection to the Internet.

آ آ  You will find that the process of communication and interaction between you and the company is located in the other half of the globe is very small and you’ll find that most companies offer strong support to help investors and bring them to the nearest distance limit and if a company is located in a room next to you.

آ آ  The way things work in general, but you should know that prior to trading real money you must have sufficient expertise to manage your account properly because it is simply that you can lose all your investments were not easily if you have sufficient experience.

How do I change my experiences and my knowledge of this market?
آ آ  That one question … Will go to any direction of the price??

آ آ  He has made a lot of scientists, professors, developers, a major effort and spent a long time in the study to give us research and numerous studies dealing with financial markets. In order to answer this question.

آ آ  The prediction correct direction of prices depends on the deep study of the market.

آ آ  We usually find three forms of market analysis: analysis of news, and technical analysis, the analysis myself. And be judicious mix, and the correct analysis of these three is the guarantee for the correct prediction in the forex market.

آ آ  News analysis includes the study of economic and political factors that may affect the currency market. For example, reports the Central Reserve Bank of policies the U.S. economy and basic transactions, and statements important and other important events.

آ آ  The objective of the analysis is the basic analysis of key factors and their impact on the dynamics of prices in the forex market. The shops in the forex market always be familiar with the current situation in the world.

آ آ  Technical analysis is an analysis of the market situation changes based on the previous price. Used in this analysis graphs that reflect price changes for a certain period. Technical Analysis and we also understand the general market situation at the present time, several indicators can predict price changes in the near future.

آ آ  Technical analysis is based on the fact that the movement of prices to take into account all the factors that could affect the market – economic, political, psychological and other factors – are already taken into account when setting prices. And if the market truly market Vsttkon movement as a result of a huge number of participants taken after their analysis of the enormous amount of information when they contract deals. The behavior of prices is the result of these decisions, and you have to monitor each input information in this market.

آ آ  What is needed is the fact that shops know the direction of movement of prices. And technical analysis, gives a tremendous amount of tools enable us to draw useful forecasts of graphs of prices.

آ آ  Psychoanalysis is to analyze the behavior of traders in the market and their psychological and expectations, hopes and fears.

آ آ  This type of analysis is very important because the rate of health is very high. We must not forget that behind the computer stations that give human beings and the expectations of prices depends on their actions in the end rates of exchange.
آ آ  You may find that it is initially interesting, fantastic, and perhaps find hard and tired and in fact, is interesting, fantastic, and hard and tired together. The realization of huge profits is not easy, easy, but in any case is not difficult or complicated.

آ آ  You can start from now to learn and gain experience and remember that you did not start it will not end ….

Success in Forex trading largely depends on number of skills. Learning to identify the trend is one of the most important in my opinion. Once you learn quickly and effortlessly identify the trend your job becomes simple. All you have to do is to make trades according to your trading system but with current price trend.

The beauty of the trend identifying skill is that anyone can learn it very quickly. Since it is easy to point the direction of the price movement the identifying the trend is also quite simple. Any time frame will work. However the trend is most clearly seen on higher time frames.

Traders use different approaches to identify the trend. I personally use most simple ones. For example on 15 minute chart I apply an EMA with averaging period of 96. That covers 24 hours. An EMA pointing upwards shows me that the trend is up. An EMA pointing downwards show that trend is down.

However you can encounter a flat market from time to time. That is when price is bouncing up and down horizontally between two levels. In this case the upper level is resistance and the lower one is support.

A good part of the such horizontal movement of price is that sooner or later it will break out the support or resistance. If it breaks the support it will create a downtrend. If it breaks the resistance price will go in up trend. Either way it is a good opportunity to take a trade.

Those traders who like taking the scalping trades use such sideways price movements. The idea behind such trades is to enter at the support or resistance level and exit with a small profit when price reaches the opposite level. Then do the opposite trade when price reverses.

Before you decide which strategy to use in trading currency it is absolutely necessary to test your system. First you need to test it on a historical data. Then you need to test it on a demo account in real time. However don’t try to find a system that will give you 100% of winning results it’s a sure way to fail in Forex. All you need to do is to become familiar with your system and know that it’s a profitable one in a long run.

As I described you before identifying the trend is not a hard task. Anyone can learn it and make money trading currencies. On the other hand the hardest part is to be objective while identifying the trend or any other parameters of the price. It seem not that easy when it comes to real hard earned money.

When it comes to trading our real money we either hesitate and lose the good trading opportunity or we jump anxiously int a trade when set up was not formed yet. That’s why you need to develop self control and be objective in estimating the market conditions.

To become a successful trader you need right parts with right instructions to put them together. After all, a part such as a $2.00 gasket can bring your car to a screeching halt.

Currency trading is very different from trading stocks. Companies can file for bankruptcies like Enron or go completely out of business taking their share value to zero. But in case of currencies there is no threat of a country going bankrupt.

Trade balances and budget deficits play a role in determining the price of a currency. What can happen is that trade balances and foreign capital inflows can cause severe economic pressures on a currency! This can create dramatic changes between the currency values relative to other currencies. When that happens, it can be an incredible financial opportunity for savvy, educated currency traders.

Learning how to spot a trend that can last from a few hours, several days or several months can create an enormous financial return for the skilled and educated trader. You need to learn how to find the current trend before you enter the markets.

Learn to always trade in the direction of the market. Fighting a trend is like swimming against the current and getting drowned. Traders make many mistakes and the biggest one is trading in the wrong direction.

Suppose you are an active trader. You should have the trading software that has the moving trend line indicator. If not then, you will need to learn the skill of drawing correct Trendlines. An incorrectly drawn trendline can be the difference between making and losing money in a trade.

There are three types of trendlines that you should learn how to draw. 1) An Inner Trendline. 2) An Outer Trendline. 3) A Long Term Trendline. These three trendlines form on all time frames. In both uptrends and downtrends! You will need them in your trading.

Draw a straight line connecting support levels without penetrating bodies or wicks of a candle in any uptrend. Correctly drawn trendlines can predict future levels of potential support in an uptrend as well as future levels of resistance in a downtrend.

You find and draw inner uptrendlines by finding the last two levels of support and drawing the line from left to right. Similarly draw the outer uptrend line by starting at the far left of the chart and moving to the right connecting the majority of the support levels with a straight line.

Draw the outer term trendline by going on a larger time frame and connect the levels of support starting from the far left of the chart moving forward. In a downtrend, the market reacts the same way as an uptrend but in an opposite direction. That means all the rules are the same but in the opposite direction. Instead of a support level, use the resistance level to draw trendlines in a downtrend.

from forexarticls.co.uk

It is not unusual for forex investors to keep watch of economic indicators since these indicators determine the economic state of a certain country. Economic indicators report changes in the economic conditions that have direct effects on the price and volume of the currency of a given country. Although economic indicators are not the only ones that affect forex signals, they still provide valuable hints on the future valuation of currencies.

Some of the most popularly used economic indicators in forex trading include the GDP, CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. The GDP or gross domestic product represents the total market value of the goods and services produced in a country during a given period of time. The CPI or consumer price index measures the changes in the prices of consumer goods across categories. The retail sales report the total receipts in all retail businesses in a certain country. And the industrial production shows changes in the production of industrial facilities, including utilities, within a specific country.

In conducting an analysis of forex market trends using economic indicators, it is helpful to have an economic calendar handy. An economic calendar lists different economic indicators and dates when they are due to be released. It also helps to keep a close watch of how markets move. Oftentimes, markets move according to expectations on the indicators or reports that are bound to be released. Investors must also be able to determine the economic indicators that often grab the attention of the majority of the players. More often than not, these indicators are the catalysts of largest price and volume movements.

As much as expectations are valuable, investors must also be careful not to rely too much on them. Investors are better off taking notes of market expectations, the economic indicators and reports being released, and the actual market results. In this manner, they are able to make comparisons of the differences in the three factors so they can make assessments as to what might have possibly caused the variance.

Monitoring economic indicators is indeed important when trading in the forex market. Investors must always be observant on changes in economic indicators, market reports, and market prices so they can react more accurately to future reports and forex market movements.

A banner that runs a constant scrolling of current prices of stocks is known as stock market ticker. It gives you information and in real time about the stock market.

When it comes to market information, especially when something urgent is happening in the market, usually the stock market ticker will provide that info.

There is so much trading that goes on in today’s markets that the stock price listed for any given company is likely to change at least a little each time it comes around again on the ticker.

Most of the stocks have a certain amount of delay while some are truly running in real time. You will have to pay a fee if you want to get the actual up to date numbers.

Unless you need to buy and sell stock market quickly during the day, it is actually not necessary for you to have the actual up to date stock prices.

Through your online brokerage account, or through other sources online, you can set up a customized stock market ticker to show just the information you are interested in. You might want to just see a scroll of the stocks that you have invested in.

While you’re considering a purchase, you may want to keep an eye on a single stock with all the breaking news and any other information as soon as you can buy it.

There is another option to set up a ticker, that is to set it up from a specific area only that you’re interested in, for example, tech stocks, oil companies, or car companies if you like to see numbers moving very fast!

In conclusion, the stock market ticker is a very useful investing tool that can inform you quickly when something has changed. By that you will be alerted and search more information from other sources and find out what has caused a stock go down or go up.

Currency trading has a long history and can be traced back to the ancient Middle East and Middle Ages when foreign exchange started to take shape after the international merchant bankers devised bills of exchange, which were transferable third-party payments that allowed flexibility and growth in foreign exchange dealings.

The modern foreign exchange market characterized by periods of high volatility (that is a frequency and an amplitude of a price alteration) and relative stability formed itself in the twentieth century. By the mid-1930s the British capital London became to be the leading center for foreign exchange and the British pound served as the currency to trade and to keep as a reserve currency. Because in the old times foreign exchange was traded on the telex machines, or cable, the pound has generally the nickname “cableâ€‌.

After the World War II, where the British economy was destroyed and the United States was the only country unscarred by war, U.S. dollar, in accordance with the Breton Woods Accord between the USA, Great Britain and France (1944) became the reserve currency for all the capitalist countries and all currencies were pegged to the American dollar (through the constitution of currencies ranges maintained by central banks of relevant countries by means of the interventions or currency purchases). In turn, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Thus, the U.S. dollar became the world’s reserve currency. In accordance with the same agreement was organized the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rendering now a significant financial support to the developing and former socialist countries effecting economical transformation.

To execute these goals the IMF uses such instruments as Reserve trenches, which allows a member to draw on its own reserve asset quota at the time of payment, Credit trenches drawings and stand-by arrangements. The letters are the standard form of IMF loans unlike of those as the compensatory financing facility extends financial help to countries with temporary problems generated by reductions in export revenues, the buffer stock financing facility which is geared toward assisting the stocking up on primary commodities in order to ensure price stability in a specific commodity and the extended facility designed to assist members with financial problems in amounts or for periods exceeding the scope of the other facilities.

At the end of the 70-s the free-floating of currencies was officially mandated that became the most important landmark in the history of financial markets in the XX century lead to the formation of Forex in the contemporary understanding. That is the currency may be traded by anybody and its value is a function of the current supply and demand forces in the market, and there are no specific intervention points that have to be observed. Foreign exchange has experienced spectacular growth in volume ever since currencies were allowed to float freely against each other. While the daily turnover in 1977 was U.S. $5 billion, it increased to U.S. $600 billion in 1987, reached the U.S. $1 trillion mark in September 1992, and stabilized at around $1.5 trillion by the year 2000.

Main factors influences on this spectacular growth in volume are mentioned below. A significant role belonged to the increased volatility of currencies rates, growing mutual influence of different economies on bank-rates established by central banks, which affect essentially currencies exchange rates, more intense competition on goods markets and, at the same time, amalgamation of the corporations of different countries, technological revolution in the sphere of the currencies trading. The latter exposed in the development of automated dealing systems and the transition to the currency trading by means of the Internet. In addition to the dealing systems, matching systems simultaneously connect all traders around the world, electronically duplicating the brokers’ market.

Advances in technology, computer software, and telecommunications and increased experience have increased the level of traders’ sophistication, their ability to both generate profits and properly handle the exchange risks. Therefore, trading sophistication led toward volume increase.

The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex or FX market) is the largest financial market in the world, with over $1.5 trillion changing hands every day.

That is larger than all US equity and Treasury markets combined!

Unlike other financial markets that operate at a centralized location (i.e. stock exchange), the worldwide Forex market has no central location. It is a global electronic network of banks, financial institutions and individual traders, all involved in the buying and selling of national currencies. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.

Traditionally, access to the Forex market has been made available only to banks and other large financial institutions. With advances in technology over the years, however, the Forex market is now available to everybody, from banks to money managers to individual traders trading retail accounts. The time to get involved in this exciting, global market has never been better than now. Open an account and become an active player in the largest market on the planet.

The Forex Market is very different than trading currencies on the futures market, and a lot easier, than trading stocks or commodities.

The FOREX plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the exchange of currencies. International trade increases as technology and communication increases. As long as there is international trade, there will be a FOREX market. The FX market has to exist so a country like Germany can sell products in the United States and be able to receive Euros in exchange for US Dollar.

So you know how it is financially rewarding if you traded successfully in the forex market every single day. Whether a bad economy or not, it has made millions taking advantage of the flactuations in the market. And the good thing is that trading is now available to all of us, having internet access and right knowledge creates wealth.

Ok, ok , i got your point, how do I start trading in forex?

Well, forex is like any other investment or business, it has signifitcant amount of loss sometime.But it is better than having a job because you can work for so little time, yet earn so much more. There is a career waiting for people who are willing to exert their effor, time and mind to learning and benefiting from the Currency Market.

It is important for traders to have consistent learning in the market, and not just giving that role of trading to their brokers. The good thing is there are many learning modules out there available through the online universe. But not all guarantees 100% success on trading. Of course no person or product can be dumb enough to guarantee your success. It also demands effort on your part. A factor you should find when purchasing or looking for information is its reputation and quality.

Poor learning = higher risks and losses
Quality learning = happy trader

One highly credited Stock and Forex Investor, Bill Poulos has made some home study courses that has helped made millions of successful traders around the world. And in one of his courses, Forex Profit Accelerator, is not more of a study home course, it is more of a learning system.

Be it new in trading or experienced, constant learning is what makes wealth, at times today, ” the more you know, the more money you make”. And a learning system like the Forex Profit Accelerator can surely give you all the support you need to be successful in Currency trading.

The analysis of a companyآ،آ¯s fundamentals involves getting deep into its financials, rather than day-to-day movement in its share price. Equity researchers normally do fundamental analysis in order to calculate the intrinsic value of a companyآ،آ¯s stock. If a companyآ،آ¯s stock is trading above the intrinsic value or fair value, then the stock is overvalued. If a companyآ،آ¯s stock is trading below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued. However, if you watch the stock markets very closely, the share price of most companies never matches the fair value. Often, day traders and investors who would prefer short term investment options invest in those stocks, regardless of the companiesآ،آ¯ long term growth prospects. However, long term investors generally prefer to invest in companies with robust fundamentals and ignore near-term share price movements.

The following are various components that constitute a companyآ،آ¯s fundamentals:

Revenues: Revenues (sales) are the total amount of money received by a company through the sales of its goods and services during a specific period of time. Revenues are one of the most important barometers of the growth of a company as it indicates whether there is demand for their products and services.

Cash flows: Cash flows are calculated by deducting a companyآ،آ¯s cash payments from cash receipts over a particular period of time. Cash flows indicate the liquidity position of a company. However, one must pay particular attention to the operating cash flows, since the health of the business can be most clearly seen there.

Net income: Net income, which is also called the آ،آ®bottom lineآ،آ¯, is calculated by subtracting from revenue, all of the companyآ،آ¯s costs, such as operating costs, interest expenses, depreciation, taxes and other expenses associated with running the business.

Balance Sheet: Balance sheet is the companyآ،آ¯s financial statement, which reflects its assets and liabilities. A companyآ،آ¯s fundamentals are said to be robust if its assets are significantly higher than the liabilities. However, one must carefully analyze companies who are reporting large intangible assets as they may have questionable liquidation value to offset any real liabilities.

Return on Assets (ROA): ROA is an Indicator of a companyآ،آ¯s profitability, which is calculated by dividing the net income for the past 12 months by total average assets of the company. This is one of the important indicators, which long-term investors consider before investing into a particular stock.

Although long-term investors and institutional investors consider a companyآ،آ¯s fundamentals before investing, the share price of a company often does not correspond to the fundamentals آ¨C which can present enormous investment opportunities. A companyآ،آ¯s long-term growth is driven primarily by fundamentals, while a companyآ،آ¯s share price can be driven by short-term news and investor sentiment, which can be extremely volatile. Every investor must consider a companyآ،آ¯s fundamentals before investing into its stock if you want to gain stable returns over the long term.

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates – can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade – If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

Foreign Exchange Market is a market where traders buy and sell currencies with the hope of making a profit when the values of the currencies change in their favor.

In other words, buy low, sell high.

Forex Market is no doubt a big income potential, if you know how to trade and make it work in your favor. With the growth of the Forex market, it has a big potential for everyone, ranging from large corporate firms to people like you.

It is a very exciting trade with a huge money-making potential. before it wasn’t even available for small accounts for individuals, but everything changes, right? Grasp the power of forex, and even in few minutes a day you can build tremendous wealth rather than being stuck in a job making someone else rich and working long hours.

Truly a very rewarding path to take.

What makes it different from stocks and other trading fields?

1. You can start very small with forex, because you control your money, you only work with what you can afford.

2. The Forex markets are always open. You can trade any time of YOUR day, as long as you have a pc/laptop and internet connection, you can.

3. The funds that you invest are liquid; you can cash them anytime you want. No waiting for days to get your stocks converted into hard cash.

4. The value of the Forex Trading market is huge: it is 30 times larger than all of the US equity markets combined. It is the largest market in the world with daily reported volume of 1.5 to 2.0 trillion dollars. This massive value makes it a lucrative and desirable trade to invest in.

5. It is highly stable than other markets. As long as there are people and money, they are always going to need currency. Even it is moving up and down, the rise and fall are not as dramatic as stock prices and generally follow a predictable trend.

Have the proper education with forex, guaranteed you can be wealthy before you even know it.

6. You do not have to worry about commissions, exchange fees nor any hidden charges when you trade Forex. Forex brokers make only a small percentage of the bid and there are very respectable and free brokers available as well. Is that not wonderful for you?

7. Whether the market is moving up or down, you will still profit. You will not worry about a falling currency value if you know what to do with it and make good gains.

8. Forex is a very transparent market. It is not biased and everybody is equal in trading forex. you can make you trading decisions and base it from international news.

9. Forex market is really fast! All is done electronically, online and in Real Time.

10. The last one is that you do not need any degree in order to trade with forex, as long as you have the following things to get started:

a. Quality education – home online courses are now available for any one who is serious in forex. One well known home study course is Bill Poulos’ Forex Profit Accelerator. you can benefit all in all because :

- Quality Education from Bill Poulos, a 30 year veteran
- Easy to understand concepts, making you profitably trade for 20 minutes and go ahead enjoy life.
- Constant support upto a year and beyond. great people who you can ask and be there for you to make sure you build your wealth.
- *added new concepts such as Money and Risk Management, which make it stand out the rest.

b. Constant Practice on a demo account – after the quality education , you need to practice , practice , practice until you are profitable before diving in the real market. Easy Forex offers a great demo account and more for you.

c. Getting a trusted forex trading Platform, and the best to date is Easy Forex, basing on its name, they make it easy for you. it has all the support you need to keep you updated and constantly educated.

Forex trading online may be the fastest path to financial freedom if you have the combination of the tools mentioned above. Compared to the hypey home based business online, Forex markets are legit and proven wealth makers. Start your future now.

Learn. Earn. Enjoy life.

Being three times larger than stocks and futures markets combined, the popularity of trading Forex market has been appealing to anyone who would like to earn more money.

It is not biased towards anyone or any institution because it operates 24 hours a day and has no physical address or location.

There is such great potential in the Forex Market because of the fluctuations or changes in exchange rates. There is always the need for currency and it is always traded in pairs. In any economic status, there will always be an opportunity for a Forex Trader to earn profits.

Before, Forex Trading is not accessible to any individual. But due to the internet and the modernization, Everybody can learn Forex and does not have to possess of any degree or qualifications. But I must emphasize of learning the craft diligently before trading. Education in Forex is very important that without any proper information and training, there is no chance that you can earn a fortune from Forex like you want to. Anyone who is serious about the trade should get good practice in a demo account.

The good thing in trading is that you can start small, and you can not lose more than what you have traded ( called “margin” ). Because of leveraging, Forex is turning to be more favorable than Stocks to other investors.

There are no hidden fees and transaction costs in Forex, meaning it is more favorable for you. You save yourself from operation fees, and taxes with Forex.

Because of the internet, Forex has been the greatest possibility of work from home for people who would like stop working or preparing to retire soon. As long as you have internet, proper training and a computer, Forex wealth is not hard to achieve.

Truly a wonderful wealth-building opportunity, the proper preparation in education and training is the key to make a lot of money with Forex.

The root of most people’s failures in the goldmine of the Forex Market is the lack of education. A Course or training could guarantee any success, nothing will but the trader himself. Constantly learning through a Forex Course, however, can put you on the right track to succeed.

There are many programs available online, but there are some reminders you need before purchasing any of the Forex Courses. Because not all are for the trader in you.

The very first thing you might want to look for in a Forex Course is the content of the material. Yes there are many courses that will say that they have great content, you will want to be looking for quality content. A great veteran in the trade who make content based on his experiences are great resources. Most of the courses out there are too focused on the very basic concepts, which will not make you profit consistently.

These below are the least you want to find in a course or training program:

-Forex trading basics- Without too much focus on this, it is sufficient to give you a good review on the basic concepts until you have a full grasp in it.

-Failures and Mistakes- If from a great author/s, this should give you a good grasp on the ways that won’t cut it in the Forex Trading industry. This should give you a great heads up so you would avoid history repeat itself.

-Aspects of Trading-
If you know how to properly apply fundamentals and technical aspects of trading, you are on your way to consistent profits.

-Trading system growth-
A system that suits you and grows as you learn is the key to consistent great results. Having this will avoid you from not following your system, making your account burst like a bubble. It should be easy to use.

-Money and Risk management-

Most important aspects in Trading. This will help you increase your money exponentially while limiting too much losses.

-Trading psychology-
Most traders neglect this, well, you are not most traders, learning the right mindset in Trading will keep you from making decisions based on your emotions. The course should help you develop habits that will be a great factor in your trading.

The Course should also make your growth towards to being an elite trader.

Trader Support

You should be able to share your ideas, opinions and suggestions to your instructor and colleagues through Forums and One-on-One Consultation.

Trader Convenience

Materials you use should work around your lifestyle, one of which is it should be available online.

Trading the Forex Market is no walk in the park. A good trader invest time and money to a high quality online course that will bring you to the right track in earning profitably and consistently.

Learning the foreign exchange basics is one of the most important things you need to consider if you wanted to delve into the world of currency trading. At its most general sense, it is important to get into forex with the right mindset and skills in place. Having a natural affinity for conducting business is important because once you have this it will be a lot easier for you to figure out how you will play the field.

To help you decide about the ins and outs of forex currency trading, here are some of the most important tips you need to know:

1. Learn to maximize your profits – Do not be too complacent with just one trading method. It would be best to try your hand at the various forex trading methods so you will also become more familiar with how others in the business probably conduct their business. Know how to boost your profits by being more in the know. Scan the market for possible trades. Focus not just on individuals but try to get the market share of big businesses as well because these financial institutions are the ones which mostly need a continuous flow of currencies.

2. Become a smart trader – It’s safe to say that this tip is the most important when it comes to learning the foreign exchange trading basics. No matter how much you know the technicalities that come with trading currencies, it will never be enough once you get to stay in the industry for a longer period of time and start to deal with different personalities. You should also be able to understand when it is okay to take a risk and when would it be best to just let it pass you by. Values and rates in the foreign exchange trade are always changing and in a matter of minutes prices may fluctuate so you need to keep your business instincts on alert.

3. Instill discipline in trading – You must have a system which you follow throughout the duration of your trading. You need a system so that you can figure out your weaknesses and strengths so you will be able to change them accordingly. You should also allot a specific time for trading. Make sure that when you are trading, you are not doing anything that is unrelated to that because you will need to be focused on the market. You should also trade according to the set rules and regulations. Keep your word should you opt to do business with fellow traders on a set date or on pre-agreed rates.

4. Keep learning – The foreign exchange trading basics still develops and gets harnessed through time. So have an open mind and consider the fact that you will need to constantly educate yourself regarding the trade. Keep yourself abreast of the latest technologies and methods being used. Make time to research about foreign currency trading and read up related news on this industry. There are lots of free learning materials that you can conveniently obtain online.

1. Spot Currency Trading – This accounts for most of the exchanges happening in the foreign currency trading business. Spot currency trading usually involves two currency traders. What happens here is that the buyer ends up calling the seller. But at the beginning of the transaction, the buyer will not yet reveal his intention to purchase any currencies offered by the seller. The seller will proceed to entertain the inquiries of the buyer and in the process informs the currency rates. Should the buyer feel comfortable with the said rates, both parties may reach a decision to transact business with each other.

2. Forward Trading – This method involves a more long term investment. The essence of forward trading is that the agreement to make the trade is finalized days or even years before the actual day of exchange. So in here, both parties (the buyer and the seller) would agree to exchange their currencies for a specified date in the future regardless of the rates that their currencies may have by then. This type of trading is often done between big companies. It also has two different types:

* Swap – This is the most common type of forward trading. In here, both the buyer and the seller agree to make currency exchanges for a specified period of time. Then their roles will eventually swap after the said period of initial exchange.
* Future – This is the forward trading used by most big companies. In future trading, a contract is drafted for the exchange with emphasis on the maturity rates.

3. Option Trading – This type of method is perhaps a flexible tool considered in our foreign exchange trading for starters. This is because option trading is the extended version of forward trading. Forward trading sort of binds involved parties to make the specified transaction. But with option trading, the involved parties only obtain the rights to buy the currency at the agreed upon date or during the duration that lapses. In here, the strike price is what’s crucial as this is the rate agreed upon in terms of buying and selling.

Although these methods of foreign exchange trading for starters may be promising, it is still important to note that all of them come with their own particular risks. After all, foreign currency trading is a volatile and dynamic type of business. These methods come with their own brand of advantages and disadvantages so it is imperative that when you use them, you fully understand their capacity first. Currency trading is a very fluid business and these methods may also provide different risks for different transactions.

The forex market is filled with scam offers and pie in the sky promises. On the other hand, it is the largest, most liquid market that trades twenty four hours a day. So how to find your way through the maze of offers that are out there, well here are four steps to becoming a successful trader.

Becoming a successful Forex trader basically comes down to four things:

1) Learning about the markets and your appitite for risk
How the markets work, what moves them, etc is a simple matter as these markets are not that complicated. Determining how well you are suited to trading is a difficult process however. Finding out how you react to stress and perform when real money is on the line can be a life long process

2) Finding and learning a system that fits your personality and life style
There are as many different systems as there are traders, many have been proven over time, so really the only question is which one suits me.I know many will dispute this point, however it really is not as complicated as some try to make it. Most of those making it hard are really just trying to sell you something. There are many free systems that once learned and traded can make you wealthy

3) Testing that system until you have an edge.
Testing is the heart of becoming a good trader. Most people don’t do this. If you test something until you can prove and edge, no matter how small it may seem, you just need to trade it over and over to make money.

4) Trading that system exactly how you tested it, until you are wealthy.
Many traders are always looking for that magic system that will make money fast. The secret to wealth is to stick to the system you have tested and proved and do it until you acumulate wealth. Not chase the latest trading software or system.

When you are ready to trade this market, keep these four simple steps in mind and then do not let anything stand in your way of becoming the trader you want to be.

from forexarticlecollectionآ 

With the ubiquitous internet as it is today, you have the convenience of doing a variety of banking transactions online from the comfort of your home, in your office or while traveling. This extraordinary technological creation has so made life easier for a lot of people including professionals, the business community, housewives and scholars even for banking purposes. Notwithstanding, this new communication phenomenon people have not stopped patronizing the usual off line banks . The orthodox banks will always be there for those people who still choose to interact in an real bank in where they see staff and call them by name.

The banks that have gone online and their offline counterpart have their advantages and disadvantages. It’s up to you to consider and decide whether to transact your financial affairs with either an online bank or an off line one . What really count s is that you should know your financial demands so as to be able to actually be on the look out for the latest tendency in the banking industry and understudy them to see how it favors you. Even if you are loyal to your usual offline bank, you may also have the need to sometimes use the online banking service for an urgent transaction or when you are where the bank is not near by.

Accomplished banks continue to use pen and paper for organizing financial transactions off line while in their online virtual offices computer and internet and keyboard are the instruments for banking transactions . The fact is that a lot of people are now online with financial products that are internet-only services meant to compete with the normal off line banks . Though these conservative banks cater mainly to their old customers, people who should know are advising them to also open online offices to serve the internet-savvy young people and by so doing attract more customers

Security and person to person interactions are the main reasons people maintain the use of traditional banks. A lot of people feel that human contact is a necessity in any bank transaction; they want to hand their hard earned cash over to real teller.

Banking online is quite the same as when you do the same thing in an offline bank. The significant dissimilarity is that your computer replaces paper or phone for accessing your account information for payments and statements reconciliations . You don’t really have to worry about going to your local bank branch when you can do all the things necessary to effect a bank transaction in the comfort of your home with a desktop computer or laptop and internet connection.

A principal advantage that internet banking offers people who go for online banking is cost effectiveness. Certain banks are known to charge their customers lower fees if the bank online banking services.

from forexarticlecollection

The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, released earlier today climbed to its highest level in 9-months but was largely mixed against consensus estimates. The June preliminary conditions index sharply beat expectations, printing at 74.5, versus calls for an improvement to 68.5 from 67.7. The expectations component disappointed, slipping to 65.4 and missing estimates for a gain to 72.0 from 69.4 in May while sentiment survey edged up by less than forecast to 69.0 from 68.7 previously

by Korman Tam

Mistakenly many individuals consider mathematical abstraction as frivolous; however it is rooted into real world mathematical applications. The Fibonacci sequence is useful for making us aware of and then explaining those hidden patterns around us daily.

How can this be applied to investing? Very astute investors understand that there are hidden patterns in the stock market–based on the mass of investors’ behavior. “Buy low and sell highâ€‌ and “The best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streetsâ€‌ are but two investment aphorisms that not only work, but also come from understanding hidden patterns of the investment markets.

The reason that investment market patterns are so well hidden is because “up closeâ€‌ they cannot be seen. Day to day, hour to hour fluctuations in the investment markets cannot be predicted with any accuracy. But certain overall trends that extend over longer periods of time definitely can be. And savvy investors, including Forex traders, have successfully been using Fibonacci’s number sequence to take advantage and make big profits.

Using the Fibonacci sequence involves a series of numbers. Each following number is the sum of the two numbers before it. It progresses like this 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and into infinity. There are numeral interrelationships within these numerals. For example, take any number; it is roughly 1.618 times the number before it. Anciently the Greeks found number 1.618 reprehensive of the golden ratio which is the supreme essence of balance. This balance is the fundamental strategy of profitable investing

The most common applications of the Fibonacci sequence for investment purposes are retracements and arcs.

Fibonacci charts are created through a technique comprising three curved lines that are drawn for the purpose of anticipating key resistance and support levels as well as areas of ranging. First, an invisible trendline is drawn between two points (typically these are the high and low for a given time period). Then, three curves are drawn so as to intersect this trendline at the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Transaction decisions are made at the point where the price of the asset crosses through these key levels.

Next is the retracement – this is when the movement of a stock or other traded commodity reverses direction; this is a reversal which is stronger than the prevailing trend of the stock’s movement. Retracement patterns are looked at closely by investors; a Fibonacci retracement can be used to analyze the odds of a commodity’s price having a larger than average retracement before continuing back on the direction it had before reversal. The trendline is typically drawn between two extremes and is divided vertically by the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

The Fibonacci retracement is widely used by sophisticated traders to find: strategic places for transactions to be placed; target prices; and stop-losses. Other technical tools including Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, and Elliott Wave theory all make use of retracement.

The reason that the Fibonacci sequence is used in investing is simple: it works! Forex traders in particular in particular seem to find it useful in making profitable trades.

by Richard U. Olson

Forex Fundamental Analysis. Basics

What is fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis in Forex is a
type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation
of countries to trade currencies more effectively.

It gives information on how the big political and economical events
influence currency market. Figures and statements given in speeches by
important politicians and economists are known among the traders as
economical announcements that have great impact on currency market moves.
In particular, announcements related to United States economy and politics
are the primary to keep an eye on.

آ 

What is economic calendar?

Economic calendar is created by
economists where they predict different economics figures and values
according to previous months. It contains next data:
Date — Time —
Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous

For example: If the forecast is better than the previous figure,
then US dollar usually is going to strengthen against other currencies.

But when news are due, traders have to check the actual data.

آ 

If to look at oil prices, a rising price will result in weakening of
currencies for countries which depend on huge oil import, e.g. America,
Japan.

آ 

Whose speeches to keep an eye on?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Bank of USA, Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco and so on. Speeches of those prominent people are
watched closely by traders.

آ 

What are the most powerful figures that move Forex
market?

Interest rate
Traditionally, if a country raises its
interest rates, its currency will strengthen because investors will shift
their assets to that country to gain higher returns.

Employment situation
Decreases in the payroll employment are
considered as signs of a weak economic activity that could eventually lead
to lower interest rates, which has negative impact on the currency.

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Trade balance, budget and treasury budget
A country that has
a significant Trade Balance deficit will generally have a weak currency as
there will be continuous commercial sellings of its currency.

آ 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is reported quarterly and is
followed very closely as it is a primary indicator of the strength of
economic activity.
A high GDP figure is usually followed by
expectations of higher interest rates, which is mostly positive for the
currency.

Despite the unstable economic environment, the worst might be over in the United States and in Europe. As a result, rates should remain on hold for some time and then climb again along with the economic expansion. The U.S. dollar is moving away from the lows of the past days, but the medium term trend remains bearish for now.

U.S.: The economic picture improving

The economic picture is improving in the United States, as both housing and consumes appear to be designing a bottom at current levels. With about half USD 300 billion of long Treasuries and USD 1.45 trillion of Agency debt still to be bought out, the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for now. However, rates should then rise, once the economy growth will become more incisive. During his testimony on Capitol Hill, Mr. Bernanke anticipated an increase in unemployment and announced that the Fed is holding less U.S. Treasures than before the financial crisis started. In effect, the job market remains weak, although the pace of decline is slowing. In May, non-farm payroll slid by 345,000 (-500,000 expected) versus April’s fall of 504,000 and March’s -652,000. The decline was broad-based with the auto industry registering about 20% of the losses. The unemployment rate is now 9.4% from 8.9% in April. Personal income increased 0.5% month on month in April, while personal spending declined 0.1%. On a yearly basis, personal income is up 0.7% and personal spending is down 1.5%.

Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

by Angelo Airaghi from froexnews

The quantitative work is still underway in the United States, as China appears to be looking to a shorter term commitment in place of long term Treasury notes. The Euro currency, in the mean time, is again testing key resistance levels against major currencies.

Rumors about the U.S. loosing the triple A credit rating are mounting, as China is becoming more careful on where to invest the large amount of U.S. dollars accumulated each year. Recent data seems to confirm that short term notes, in place of long term Treasuries, are becoming more attractive for the Chinese government, whose concerns about the large U.S. debt creating inflation and panelizing the U.S. dollar are growing every day. In effect, U.S. finances are under tight scrutiny by Moody’s Investors Services, albeit there is not an immediate threat. However, some Fed officials are concerned that inflation will strongly pick up following the huge government spending and Fed funds will at some point be increased again. The Minutes from the April FOMC meeting confirmed that the credit and quantitative work is still underway. Only 35% have been covered so far of the almost 2 trillion of various assets to be bought over a relative short period of time.

Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

This article contains the following sections:

The economic growth is improving tangibly in the United States and might accelerate in the final part of this year. Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure and more weakness is possible in the near future.

The economy is on the move again in the United States. The housing market appears to be designing a bottom at current levels, industry’s output is increasing and consumer confidence is improving. In April, new home sales moved up 1,000 to 352,000 units from March’s 351,000. Inventories declined 13,000 month-on- month and are down 160,000 year-on-year and In would take 10.1 months to buy all the new homes in storage, down from 10.6 months in March and 12.4 months in January. In reality, the economic growth of the past ten years will not be repeated in the foreseeable future. However, improvements could be seeing in the final part of this year supported by the monetary and fiscal incentives. The process is challenging, but even a moderate growth would help mitigate the huge budget deficit, albeit an increase of inflation is inevitable.

Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

This article contains the following sections:

Forex is operating worldwide round the clock with governments, national and central banks, hedge funds, corporate companies, various financial institutions, brokers, and currency speculators all participate in the forex trading to make money and upheld their economy. The forex market is closed only during the weekends and opened in all the weekdays. Forex plays an important role in foreign trade and foreign exchange rates.

Forex is also referred as Forex exchange trading or as FX and this involves only the buying and selling of one currency, according to its established value against another currency. Example, a trader buys the US dollars with the euro currency when the US dollar value is weak and sells the US dollars when its value is high against the euro currency. By this a trader can make profits.

Knowing the foreign exchange rate forms the cornerstone factor to predict forex trends and online forex brokers should essentially know this to efficiently practice their skill.

The established value of one currency to another is called exchange rate, which can rise or fall anytime owing to many factors like the stability of the government, stability of the economy, security of the country, etc. However market is also affected by market psychology, political factors, and economic factors like house prices and employment figures etc.

A forex trader will be able to benefit in this forex trading only when he does it in high volumes because the profit margin is always small and when high volumes of forex trading is done in the forex markets, then only the forex trader will be able to amass huge profits

The greenback weakened tremendously over a short period of time and was due for a serious bounce. The lack of major U.S. economic data until Wednesday of next week could lead to a further rally in the dollar as the euphoria from the non-farm payrolls report lingers over the currency market. I have been both short and long term dollar bearish since the beginning of May and even though my views on reserve diversification have not changed, it may be better for traders to wait and rebuild those dollar shorts at higher levels. I believe that the sharp rise in bond yields is a combination of stronger investor confidence and concern about U.S. public finances.

Since the beginning of 2008, there have been numerous “correctionsâ€‌ preceding strong rallies in the EUR/USD ranging anywhere from 3.5 to 6 percent. From this week’s high of 1.4340, a 3.5 percent correction would take the EUR/USD down to 1.3840 while a 6 percent correction would take the currency pair down to 1.3480.

For decades, if not longer, the U.S. dollar has been known as the world’s reserve currency. Foreign investors and central banks have gobbled up greenbacks and debt issued by the U.S. government on the premise that the dollar is the world’s dominant currency and American economic strength will bolster returns on dollar-denominated investments.

While the conventional wisdom regarding dollar strength has proved to be true over the years, it is important that investors remember that currencies act just like stocks or other financial instruments. They enjoy runs of success and suffer through periods of doldrums. And while the dollar has been a highly desired currency for the international investing community, it experiences periods of decline.

A fall in the dollar isn’t cause for panic, though. Savvy investors can exploit the mighty greenback’s decline when it happens and profit from it. Best of all, the avenues to profit from a dollar drop continue to increase.

Where to Turn When the Dollar Tumbles
There are generally a few key warning signs that indicate a decline in the dollar is on the horizon. A consistent pattern of key interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a surge in the national debt and rising commodity prices, especially among gold and oil, can all help investors identify potential peril for the dollar.

And when the dollar falls, that likely means other key currencies are rising, because investors are flocking to perceived quality. For example, a tumble in the dollar combined with rising exports and economic growth in Japan would lead investors to the Japanese yen. On the other hand, if U.S. economic growth is stagnant, but Europe and the U.K. are performing well, the euro and British pound become safe havens for currency investors. (For more insight, read Top 8 Most Tradable Currencies.)

Another avenue to consider is the Swiss franc. While Switzerland is in Europe, the country doesn’t participate in the common currency and likely never will. In addition, the Swiss government and central bank take almost painstaking efforts to keep the franc strong relative to competing currencies. As such, in 2009 the franc ranked as the world’s fifth most-traded currency behind the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen. (For more, see What are the most common currency pairs traded in the forex market?)

Watching the Dollar? Watch Commodities, Too
Because many commodities are denominated in dollars, meaning their quoted price is in dollars, investors should watch certain commodity markets to get a sense of where the dollar is headed. For example, rising oil prices have generally resulted in dollar weakness because the dollar’s purchasing power suffers and consumers get less gas for their cars and heating oil for their homes when crude oil prices rise.

To hedge against the dollar’s fall when commodities are in a bull market, look toward commodity-based currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars. When precious metals, such as gold, are in high demand, the Australian dollar often benefits. Likewise, Canada’s dollar rises when demand for crude oil surges. Another more recent play on a commodity currency is the Brazilian real. Formerly an emerging market, in 2009 Brazil stands as the 10^th largest economy in the world and is rich with natural resources, particularly oil. (For more, see Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)

Plenty of Options to Profit From the Dollar Decline
Trading in the foreign currency markets can be daunting as the daily dollar volume in these markets dwarfs that of U.S. equity markets. Investors need to be aware that playing in FX markets is not for the faint of heart and they can lose more than theirآ initial investment. For many, the best choice is to leave this arena to the professionals and seek out other methods for profiting from a fall in the dollar.

Fortunately, there is no shortage of products to help investors do this. One is the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. It is updated 24 hours a day, seven days a week and trades on the New York Board of Trade. There is also a plethora of mutual funds that track foreign bonds or short the dollar against the other currencies. These funds give investors the international exposure their portfolios need without the headache of directly tracking wild intraday swings in the currency markets. (For more insight, see Taking Advantage Of A Weak U.S. Dollar.)

Equities, both international and domestic, provide another area for investors to profit from a dollar slide. If the forecast appears grim for U.S. equity markets, certain foreign markets may be poised to benefit. Of course, there are U.S. stocks that can benefit from a fall in the dollar, too. Large multinational firms that count on overseas markets for a fair amount of their profits benefit when the dollar is weak as they convert a British pound or Japanese yen back into a greater amount of U.S. dollars. Names like Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), General Electric (NYSE:GE) and PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) come to mind. (For further reading, see Currency Moves Highlight Equity Opportunities)

Conclusion
Investors need not suffer at the hands of a weak dollar. The methods to protect one’s dollar-based investments are plenty and effective hedging can serve as more than just protection: it can boost a portfolio’s bottom line. In addition, the global economy means there are global opportunities to help investorsآ sleep a little easier when the dollar drops. (For more, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)

by Todd Shriber

Wouldn’t it be great to increase the probability that your trade will be successful while simultaneously spending less time analyzing chart patterns? By putting the forex market in perspective and realizing your role as an individual trader, it is possible. (For more see Getting Started In Forex.).

Most traders don’t realize that the money they contribute to the spot market has virtually no impact on price movement, so playing by the same rules as the “big players” may not be your most profitable option. When you jump in and out of the market quickly on a calculated and highly economic regimen – a strategy called fundamental speed – you can make an impact on your own investments. (Learn to bank short-term profits by placing stops away from the crowd; check out Stop Hunting With The Big Players.)

Who are the “big players”?
Banks and governments are the big players that make the forex market move.

• Banks transfer money to and from global institutions and stock reserves of every major currency. (The policies of these banks affect the currency market in a big way. See what makes them tick in Get To Know The Major Central Banks.)
• Governments set the interest rate that determines bank lending power and have the ability to sway the market by releasing key economic information.

The role of a forex trader is not to trade to move the market, but to realize the relatively undecipherable impact their trades make. Keeping this in perspective, a trader can profit through the timing of their trades – the fundamental speed process.

Fundamental Speed: The What and the How
Fundamental speed is the process of keeping an eye on key economic indicators that impact the currencies you trade, placing your trade and then exiting in a systematic way. Here is a rundown on how the process works:

1. Pick high-impact economic releases only.
Each day dozens of economic releases are made globally but only a few – if any – are worth trading. Currencies tend to make big movements when an economic release is tied directly to their rate of transfer in relation to another country’s currency (Central banks’ rate changes are one of the biggest influences on the forex market, see Interest Rates Matter For Forex Traders)
Here are a few releases you should keep an eye on:

1. • CPI
   • Trade balance
   • Interest rate statement
   • Retail sales
   • Home sales
   • Consumer confidence
   • Unemployment claims

Most economic calendars online show the high-impact releases in red, with a basic explanation of how they move the market. This can be a handy tool when deciding which releases to trade. (For more, check out Trading on News Releases.)

2. Set a time limit to move in and out of the market.
Realizing that the money you put in the foreign-exchange market will not make a substantial impact, you should have an exit strategy that is based on a system, not emotion.

After an economic release, a reliable price movement occurs for one to two minutes. Depending on whether the release is hawkish or dovish you will see that the price typically goes in the expected direction – but many times it spirals out in what seems to be a random direction after the first 60 to 120 seconds.

This is not so much a random movement as it is a government trying to steady their currency or a bank pushing money through to get the best transfer rate – things that are out of your control. If the release points in the direction of the daily moving average you may feel comfortable staying on the trade for up to five minutes. Treat this on a trade-by-trade basis however.

3. Do nothing in a neutral situation.
If the predicted or forecasted figure is accurate to the actual don’t jump in to a trade just to put money down. Trading the fundamental speed process only gives you a few trade options on any given day (less if you trade specific currencies) and there is a temptation to risk money in a neutral situation. It is important to keep your emotions in check. (Learn to overcome one of the biggest trading hurdles Master Your Trading Mindtraps.)

Moreآ Probable, More Profits
As a trader it is important to emphasize increasing the probability of a successful trade. The higher percentage of profitable trades you make typically gives you a higher rate of overall return – that is, more cash in your pocket. By sticking to a system you will be trading in a fashion that allows you to track the probability of your trades and to gauge which ones are profitable and which ones are not. A few more benefits of the fundamental speed process include:

• Less time analyzing charts: Technical trading can be a complex arena for beginning traders and, although it is systematic, it can be difficult to use successfully. As you grow as a trader you can merge technical trading with fundamental speed to maximize your exit strategy. But if you are just starting out, you can avoid charts altogether by focusing on the fundamentals, which are black and white. (For more on this trading style, read Technical Analysis: Introduction.)
• The ability to set a forex schedule: The forex market is a 24-hour-a-day operation, but obviously you cannot expect to trade nonstop. For many traders the most difficult part of trading is figuring out the best time to trade. Some traders work day jobs and must trade after-hours; others are full-time traders but realize the importance of sticking to a regimen. By using the fundamental speed process you know the exact times you need to trade. (You might want to check out How To Set A Forex Trading Schedule.)

The Bottom Line
Many traders learn forex through instruction manuals that treat individual traders like the “big players”. Individuals trade with limited capital, meaning their impact reaches far less than the governments and banks that run the market. By harnessing this knowledge and trading in a way that uses it effectively, a trader can maximize his or her potential. (For an in-depth analysis, read our Forex Tutorial.)

by David Hunt

Trading in the financial markets is surrounded by a certain amount of mystique because there is no single formula for trading successfully. Think of the markets as being like the ocean and the trader as a surfer. Surfing requires talent, balance, patience, proper equipment and astute discrimination. Would you go into the water if there were sharks swimming all around you or dangerous rip tides? Hopefully not. (Benjamin Graham pioneered cutting edge concepts that propelled other top investors to fame. Read The 3 Most Timeless Investment Principles.)

The attitude to trading in the markets is no different to that required for surfing. By blending good analysis with effective implementation, your success rate will improve dramatically and, likeآ many skill sets, good trading comes from a combination of talent and hard work. Here are the four legs of the stool that you can build into a strategy to serve you well in all markets.

Leg No.1 – Approach
Before you start to trade, recognize the value of proper preparation. The first step is to align your personal goals and temperament with the instruments and markets that you can comfortably relate to. For example, if you know something about retailing, then look to trade retail stocks rather than oil futures, about which you may know nothing.آ Begin by assessing the following three components.

1. Time Frame
   The time frame indicates the type of trading that is appropriate for your temperament. Trading off of a five-minute chart suggests that you are more comfortable being in a position without the exposure to overnight risk. On the other hand, choosing weekly chartsآ indicates a comfort with overnight risk and a willingness to see some days go contrary to your position.

   In addition, decide if you have theآ willingness and time to sit in front of a screen all day or if you would prefer to do your research quietly over the weekend and then make a trading decision for the coming week based on your analysis. Remember that the opportunity to make substantial money in the markets requires time. Short-term scalping, by definition, means small profits or losses. In this case you will have to trade more frequently. (Find out about the various styles of this trading strategy in Scalping: Small Quick Profits Can Add Up.)

2. Methodology
   Once you choose a time frame, find a consistent methodology. For example, some traders like to buy support and sell resistance. Others prefer buying or selling breakouts. Yet others like to trade using indicators such as MACD, crossovers etc. (Learn more in our Technical Analysis Tutorial.)

   Once you choose a system or methodology, test it to see if it works on a consistent basis and provides you with an edge. If your system is reliable more than 50% of the time, you will have an edge, even if it’s a small one. If you backtest your system and discover that had you traded every time you were given a signal and your profits were more than your losses, chances are very good that you have a winning strategy. Test a few strategies and when you find one that delivers a consistently positive outcome, stay with it and test it with a variety of instruments and various time frames. (For more, check out our Trading Systems Tutorial.)

3. Market (Instrument)
   You will find that certain instruments trade much more orderly than others. Erratic trading instruments make it difficult to produce a winning system. Therefore, it is necessary to test your system on multiple instruments to determine that your system’s “personality” matches with the instrument being traded. For example, if you were trading theآ USD/JPY currency pair in the forex market, you may find that Fibonacci support and resistance levels are more reliable in this instrument than in some others. You should also test multiple time frames to find those that match your trading system best. (Uncover the history and logic behind this popular trading tool inآ Taking The Magic Out Of Fibonacci Numbers, and Advanced Fibonacci Applications.)

Leg No.2 – Attitude
Attitude in trading means ensuring that you develop your mindset to reflect the following four attributes:

1. Patience
   Once you know what to expect from your system, then have the patience to wait for the price to reach the levels that your system indicates for either the point of entry or exit. If your system indicates an entry at a certain level but the market never reaches it, then move on to the next opportunity. There will always be another trade. In other words, don’t chase the bus after it has left the terminal; wait for the next bus.آ آ (Learn more in Patience Is A Trader’s Virtue.)
2. Discipline
   Discipline is the ability to be patient – to sit on your hands until your system triggers an action point. Sometimes the price action won’t reach your anticipated price point. At this time you must have the discipline to believe in your system and not to second-guess it. Discipline is also the ability to pull the trigger when your system indicates to do so. This is especially true for stop losses.
3. Objectivity
   Objectivity or “emotional detachment” also depends on the reliability of your system or methodology. If you have a system that provides entry and exit levels that you know have a high reliability factor, then you don’t need to become emotional or allow yourself to be influenced by the opinion of pundits who are watching their levels and not yours. Your system should be reliable enough so that you can be confident in acting on its signals. (Find out how your mindset can play a larger role in your success than market influences Trading Psychology And Discipline.)
4. Realistic Expectations
   Even though the market can sometimes make a much bigger move than you anticipate, being realistic means that you cannot expect to invest $250 in your trading account and expect to make $1,000 each trade. Short-term time frames provide less profit opportunities than longer term, but the risk with longer-term time frames is higher. It’s a question of risk versus reward.

Leg No.3 – Discrimination
Different instruments trade differently depending on who the major players are and why they are trading that particular instrument. Hedge funds are motivated differently than mutual funds. Large banks that are trading the spot currency market in specific currencies usually have a different objective than currency traders buying or selling futures contracts. If you can determine what motivates the large players then you can often piggy-back them and profit accordingly. (For more on this type of strategy, see Stop Hunting With The Big Players.)

• Alignment
  Pick a few currencies, stocks or commodities and chart them all in a variety of time frames. Then apply your particular methodology to all of them and see which time frame and which instrument is most responsive to your system. This is how you discover a “personality” match for your system. Repeat this exercise regularly to adapt to changing market conditions.

Leg No.4 – Management (Implementation)
Since there is no such thing as only profitable trades, no system will trigger a 100% sure thing. Even a profitable system, say with a 65% profit to loss ratio, still has 35% losing trades. Therefore, the art of profitability is in the management and execution of the trade.آ آ (Learn more in The Myth Of Profit/Loss Ratios.)

• Risk Control
  In the end, successful trading is all about risk control. Take losses quickly and often if necessary. Try to get your trade in the correct direction right out of the gate. If it backs off, cut out and try again. Often it is on the second or third attempt that your trade will move immediately in the right direction. This practice requires patience and discipline but when you get the direction right you can trail your stops and almost always be profitable at best, or break even at worst.

The Bottom Line
There are as many nuanced methods of trading as there are traders. There is no right or wrong way to trade. There is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade. Warren Buffet says there are two rules in trading: Rule 1: Never lose money. Rule 2:آ Rememberآ Rule 1.آ Stick a note on your computer that will remind you to take small losses often and quicklyآ - don’t wait for the big losses. (Start your own investing adventure with the help of some simple guidelines: Tailoring Your Investment Plan.)

by Selwyn Gishen

What Is an Exchange Rate?
An exchange rate is the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another. In other words, it is the value of another country’s currency compared to that of your own. If you are traveling to another country, you need to “buy” the local currency. Just like the price of any asset, the exchange rate is the price at which you can buy that currency. If you are traveling to Egypt, for example, and the exchange rate forآ U.S. dollarsآ 1:5.5 Egyptian pounds, this means that for every U.S. dollar, you can buy five and a half Egyptian pounds. Theoretically, identical assets should sell at the same price in different countries, because the exchange rate must maintain the inherent value of one currency against the other.

Fixed Exchange Rates
There are two ways the price of a currency can be determined against another. A fixed, or pegged, rate is a rate the government (central bank) sets and maintains as the official exchange rate. A set price will be determined against a major world currency (usually the U.S. dollar, but also other major currencies such as the euro, the yen or a basket of currencies). In order to maintain the local exchange rate, the central bank buys and sells its own currency on the foreign exchange market in return for the currency to which it is pegged. (To learn more, readآ What Are Central Banks? and Get To Know The Major Central Banks.)

If, for example, it is determined that the value of a single unit of local currency is equal to US$3, the central bank will have to ensure that it can supply the market with those dollars. In order to maintain the rate, the central bank must keep a high level of foreign reserves. This is a reserved amount of foreign currency held by the central bankآ that it can use to release (or absorb) extra funds into (or out of) the market. This ensures an appropriate money supply, appropriate fluctuations in the market (inflation/deflation), and ultimately, the exchange rate. The central bank can also adjust the official exchange rate when necessary.

Floating Exchange Rates
Unlike the fixed rate, aآ floating exchange rate is determined by the private market through supply and demand. A floating rate is often termed “self-correcting”, as any differences in supply and demand will automatically be corrected in the market. Take a look at this simplified model: if demand for a currency is low, its value will decrease, thus making imported goods more expensive and stimulating demand for local goods and services. This in turn will generate more jobs, causing an auto-correction in the market. A floating exchange rate is constantly changing.

In reality, no currency is wholly fixed or floating. In a fixed regime, market pressures can also influence changes in the exchange rate. Sometimes, when a local currency does reflect its true value against its pegged currency, a “black market”, which is more reflective of actual supply and demand, may develop. A central bank will often then be forced to revalue or devalue the official rate so that the rate is in line with the unofficial one, thereby halting the activity of the black market.

In a floating regime, the central bank may also intervene when it is necessary to ensure stability and to avoid inflation; however, it is less often that the central bank of a floating regime will interfere.

The World Once Pegged
Between 1870 and 1914, there was a global fixed exchange rate. Currencies were linked to gold, meaning that the value of a local currency was fixed at a set exchange rate to gold ounces. This was known as the gold standard. This allowed for unrestricted capital mobility as well as global stability in currencies and trade; however, with the start of World War I, the gold standard was abandoned. (For more on the gold standard, see The Gold Standard Revisited.)

At the end of World War II, the conference at Bretton Woods, an effort to generate global economic stability and increase global trade, established the basic rules and regulations governing international exchange. As such, an international monetary system, embodied in theآ International Monetary Fund (IMF),آ was established to promote foreign trade and to maintain the monetary stability of countries and therefore that of the global economy. (For further reading on the IMF, seeآ What Is The International Monetary Fund?)

It was agreed that currencies would once again be fixed, or pegged, but this time to the U.S. dollar, which in turn was pegged to gold at US$35 per ounce. What this meant was that the value of a currency was directly linked with the value of the U.S. dollar. So, if you needed to buy Japanese yen, the value of the yen would be expressed in U.S. dollars, whose value in turn was determined in the value of gold. If a country needed to readjust the value of its currency, it could approach the IMF to adjust the pegged value of its currency. The peg was maintained until 1971, when the U.S. dollar could no longer hold the value of the pegged rate of US$35 per ounce of gold.

From then on, major governments adopted a floating system, and all attempts to move back to a global peg were eventually abandoned in 1985. Since then, no major economies have gone back to a peg, and the use of gold as a peg has been completely abandoned.

Why Peg?
The reasons to peg a currency are linked to stability. Especially in today’s developing nations, a country may decide to peg its currency to create a stable atmosphere for foreign investment. With a peg, the investor will always know what his or her investment’s value is, and thereforeآ will not have to worry about daily fluctuations. A pegged currency can also help to lower inflation rates and generate demand, which results from greater confidence in the stability of the currency.

Fixed regimes, however, can often lead to severe financial crises since a peg is difficult to maintain in the long run. This was seen in the Mexican (1995),آ Asian (1997) and Russian (1997) financial crises: an attempt to maintain a high value of the local currency to the peg resulted in the currencies eventually becoming overvalued. This meant that the governments could no longer meet the demands to convert the local currency into the foreign currency at the pegged rate. With speculation and panic, investors scrambled to get their money outآ and convert it into foreign currency before the local currency was devalued against the peg; foreign reserve supplies eventually became depleted. In Mexico’s case, the government was forced to devalue the peso by 30%. In Thailand, the government eventually had to allow the currency to float, and by the end of 1997, theآ Thaiآ bhat had lostآ 50% of its as the market’s demand and supply readjusted the value of the local currency. (For more insight, see What Causes A Currency Crisis?)

Countries with pegs are often associated with having unsophisticated capital markets and weak regulating institutions. The peg is therefore there to help create stability in such an environment. It takes a stronger system as well as a mature market to maintain a float. When a country is forced to devalue its currency, it is also required to proceed with some form of economic reform, like implementing greater transparency, in an effort to strengthen its financial institutions.

Some governments may choose to have a “floating,” or “crawling” peg, whereby the government reassesses the value of the peg periodically and then changes the peg rate accordingly. Usually this causes devaluation, but it is controlled to avoid market panic. This method is often used in the transition from a peg to a floating regime, and it allows the government to “save face” by not being forced to devalue in an uncontrollable crisis.

Conclusion
Although the peg has worked in creating global trade and monetary stability, it was used only at a time when all the major economies were a part of it. And while a floating regime is not without its flaws, it has proved to be a more efficient means of determining the long-term value of a currency and creating equilibrium in the international market.

Investing in any market can be volatile.آ Minimizing risk while retaining upside potential is paramount for most investors – that’s why an increasing number of traders and investors are diversifying and hedging with currencies. Different currencies benefit from some of the same things that may hurt stock indexes, bonds or commodities and can be a great way to diversify a portfolio. However, digging into currencies as a trader or investor can be daunting.

New currency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) make it simpler to understand the forex market (the largest, most liquid market on the planet), and use it to diversify risk.

Now, youآ can haveآ General Electric (NYSE:GE) and the British pound in your portfolio by holding the CurrencyShares British Pound ETF (PSE:FXB) in the same account. Have an IRA? Sprinkle some euros in there by holding the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (PSE:FXE), and offset some downside risk of your S&P 500 holdings. Read on to learn more about this unique way of using currencies to diversify your holdings. (For more on ETFs, see Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds and Advantages Of Exchange-Traded Funds.)

Hedging Against Risk
Every investor is exposed to two types of risk: idiosyncratic risk and systemic risk. Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that an individual stock’s price will fall, causing you to accumulate massive losses on that stock. Rooting this kind of risk out of your portfolio is quite simple. All you have to do is diversify your account across a broad range of stocks or stock-based ETFs, thus reducing your exposure to a particular stock. (To learn more, read The Importance Of Diversification and Do You Understand Investment Risk?)

However, diversifying across a broad range of stocks only addresses idiosyncratic risk. You still have to face your account’s systemic risk.

Systemic risk is the exposure you have to the entire stock market falling, causing you to accumulate losses across your entire diversified portfolio. Minimizing the exposure of your portfolio to a bear market used to be difficult. You had to open a futures account or a forex account and try to manage both it and your stockآ accounts at the same time. While opening a forex account and trading it can be extremely profitable if you apply yourself, many investors aren’t ready to take that step. Instead, they decide to leave all of their eggs in their stock market basket and hope the bulls win. Don’t let that be you. (Want to give currencies a shot? Read Wading Into The Currency Market.)

Currency ETFs are opening doors for investors to diversify. You can now easily mitigate systematic risk in your account and take advantage of large macroeconomic trends around the world by putting your money not only into the stock market but also in the forex market through these funds.آ (For more see, A Beginner’s Guide To Hedging.)

How Currency ETFs Work
ETF management firms buy and hold currencies in a fund. They then sell shares of that fund to the public. You can buy and sell ETF shares just like you buy and sell stock shares. Investors value the shares of the ETF at 100 times the current exchange rate for the currency being held. For example, let’s assume that the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (PSE:FXE) is currently priced at $136.80 per share because the underlying exchange rate for the euro versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) is 1.3680 (1.3680 أ— 100 = $136.80).

You can use ETFs to profit from the exchange rate of the dollar versus the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and a few other major currencies. (For more on this market, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)

What makes currencies move?
Unlike the stock market, which has a long-term propensity to rise in value, currencies will often channel in the very long term. Stocks are driven by economic and business growth and tend to trend. Conversely, inflation and issues around monetary policy may prevent a currency from growing in value indefinitely.

Currency pairs may trend as well, and there are simple factors that influence their value and movement. These factors include interest rates, stock market yields, economic growth and government policy. Most of these can be forecasted and used to guide traders as they hedge risk in the rest of the market and make profits in the forex.

Economic Factors and Currency Trends
Here are two examples of economic factors and the currency trends they inspire.

Oil and the Canadian Dollar
Each currency represents an individual economy. If an economy is a commodity producer and exporter, commodity prices will drive currency values. There are three major currencies that are known as “commodity” currencies that exhibit very strong correlations with oil, gold and other raw materials. The Canadian dollar (CAD) is one of these. (For more on how this works, read Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)

One ETF that can be traded to profit from the moves in the CAD/USD pair is CurrencyShares Canadian (PSE:FXC). Because the Canadian dollar is on the base side of this currency pair, it will pull the ETF up when oil prices are rising and it will fall when oil prices are declining. Of course, there are other factors at play in that currency’s value but energy prices are a major influence, and can be surprisingly predictive of the trend.

This is especially useful for stock traders because of the effect that higher energy prices can have on stock values. Additionally, it provides another way for stock traders to speculate on rising commodity prices without having to venture into the futures market. (For on this topic, check out Currency Moves Highlight Equity Opportunities.)

In Figures 1 and 2, you can see 18 months of prices for the Canadian dollar compared to oil prices over the same period.

Figure 1: Crude oil (continuous)

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

Figure 2: Canadian dollar

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

As you can see, there is a strong positive correlation between these two markets. This is helpful as a hedge against stock volatility as well as the real day-to-day costs of higher energy prices.

Short-term traders may look for a breakout in oil prices that is not reflected in the value of the Canadian dollar immediately. When these imbalances occur, there is opportunity to take advantage of the move the market will make as it “catches up” with oil.

Long-term traders can use this as a way to diversify their holdings and speculate on rising energy prices. It is also possible to short the ETF to take advantage of falling oil prices.

Interest Rates and the Swiss Franc
There are several forex relationships that are impacted by interest rates, but a dramatic correlation exists between bond yields and the Swiss franc. One ETF that can be used to profit from the Swiss franc, or “Swissie”, is the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (PSE:FXF). The currency pair is notated as CHF/USD. When the Swissie is rising in value, the ETF rises as well, as it costs more U.S. dollars to buy a Swiss franc.

The correlation described here involves the 10-year bond yield. You will notice in Figures 3 and 4 that when bond yields are rising, the Swissie falls, and vice versa. Depending on interest rates, the value of the Swissie will frequently rise and fall with bond yields.

Figure 3: 10-Year Bond Yields (TNX)

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

Figure 4: Swiss franc

Source: MetaStock Pro FX

This relationship is useful not only as a way to find new trading opportunities but as a hedge against falling stock prices. The stock market has a positive correlation with bond yields; therefore, if yields are falling, the stock market should be falling as well. A savvy investor who is long the Swissie ETF can offset some of those losses.

Conclusion
Currency ETFs have opened the forex market to investors focused on stocks. They adds an additional layer of diversificationآ and can also be used effectively by shorter term traders for quick profits. There are even options available for most of these ETFs.

In trading circles divergence is basically where the priceآ makes new highs but the indicator in question, ie the CCI in this case, fails to make new highs. Similarly in a downward trend the price is making new lows but the indicator is failing to make new lows.

These divergence patterns indicate that a reversal is about to take place because the trend is starting to run out of momentum, and they are generally very strong signals.

So getting back to the CCI divergence trading system, I recommend you plot the price chart along with two CCI indicators – the CCI (10) and CCI (60). You may like to try other settings but I find these work extremely well.

Then you want to wait for a divergence pattern to emerge on BOTH of these indicators. You can use just one indicator but I recommend using both of them if you want to identify the very best signals.

To give you an example there was an excellent set-up on the GBP/USD pair yesterday morning (on the 15 minute chart). You can see from the chart below that although the price didn’t actually trade lower, it did form a perfect double bottom formation (indicated by the grey vertical line), and yet when it did so both the CCI indicators failed to make new lows, which was a very positive sign that a reversal was about to take place, and which turned out to be correct in this case.

As with all trading systems this simple CCI divergence system isn’t foolproof but it can provide you with some excellent signals on occasions.

tip from theforexarticles

Let’s look at the evidence that a major fall in the EUR/GBP could be about to happen.

Firstly there’s the fact that the price has recently crossed below the 200 day moving average (both the simple and exponential moving average) which is the first time this has happened since October 2008.

Secondly if you apply fibonacci analysis to the long-term chart, and more specifically from the low point at the start of 2007 to the high point in December last year, you will see that so far we haven’t even touched the second point of resistance yet which is the 38.20% retracement level at around 0.8555.

Therefore if the retracement continues the price is likely to at least test the 50% level, which currently stands at 0.8169, and may even fall to the 61.80% retracement level, which would see the price fall to 0.7784.

Finally if you are a fellow-subscriber of Marketclub, you can see that their trade triangles have just created a sell signal on the monthly charts at 0.8650 which is usually a very reliable signal, particularly on the forex pairs.

So overall there are of course no guarantees that the EUR/GBP will fall at all, but all of the signals mentioned above suggest that a big price fall could well be on the cards in the coming weeks and months.

tip from the forexarticles

آ 

Think of fundamental analysis for a publicly traded stock then multiply many times to scale up to an entire country or a number of countries in some cases like the Euro.

Forex fundamental analysis is a market analysis that tries to determine the future price of a currency based on current market trends. The difference from technical analysis lies in the fact that fundamental analysis is not based on mathematical probability so much as it is a complete analysis of a currency based on political, economic and environmental factors. Fundamental analysis focus on statistics and key numbers that indicate changes in supply and demand. It requires the trader to have basic knowledge of the market forces – supply and demand and how these are affected by changes in the general economy and political landscape. It is an analysis of the intrinsic value of a currency. How a certain economic or political event will affect the forex market is what fundamental analysis is all about.

The basics of trading on fundamental analysis consists mainly on analyzing these political and economic changes as they will have an effect on prices. This implies that traders will gather as much useful information as possible from news sources to gather info on unemployment, economic policy, political developments, inflation, growth rates and much more. Traders are constantly keeping an ear to the ground on speeches from policy makers and key commentators. Speeches and press releases from key figures in the Federal Reserve, Treasury and others are highly and almost hysterically anticipated as the market waits for these powerful policy makers to release news.

As always if there is an decrease in the supply of a good, in this case a currency, but the demand for that good remains the same, then the end result will be an increase in price. Likewise, if the supply increases while the demand stays the same, then the result is falling prices. So fundamental analysis is basically an analysis of a nations demand and supply for their currency. Many factors affect this balance which is why a trader going on fundamental analysis must know about many indicators such as Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Production (Industrial), Political Stability and Development, Interest Rates, Government Policies, International Trade, CPI, PPI, PMI and much much more.

Once all this data has been gathered, the trader will make an analysis of the currencies value against another. Then it can be decided if the currency will rise or fall against others. This process is fundamental analysis.

آ 

In Islamic Forex Trading, there are no trades allowed that cannot be completed at the time of the trade. For example you cannot make a trade that will take six months to complete. You are only allowed to purchase foreign currency for the current trade value. If you make a profit you must be charged interest on it.

When trading for gold you must also trade with something of equal value. The same is true for trading silver or less precious metals.

Islamic Forex Trading accounts are set up to create a swap free account. This means that no swaps will be accounted to positions overnight. These accounts are set up for customers who believe that swaps are contrary to their religious beliefs.

The Islamic Forex Trading accounts do not receive or pay overnight interest or carry on positions in accordance with their religion. There are zero up-front commissions and no additional charges on these accounts.

In the Islamic Forex Trading account the interest payments on account balances is waived. Instead of swaps, the account will be charged a service charge on each lot left on the currency trade.

Forex traders have found a way for persons with Islamic beliefs to participate in the fast growing Forex market. The majority of Islam fundamentalists agree that Forex trading can comply with Sharia only if it is spot trading and doesn’t involve earning any overnight interest on the account.آ  As long as the trading doesn’t involve Riba (unlawful gain) it is considered to be legal in the Muslim world.

Forex is basically trading one currency for another. Some Islamic scholars tend towards the thought that since there is a lot of volatility and speculation, it should not be permissible under Islamic law. It is compared to day trading which is not allowed under any circumstance in the Islamic world.آ  You are not allowed to sell what you do not have in your possession. Therefore, you cannot purchase what you cannot take immediate possession of. This eliminates the speculative aspect of regular Forex trading.

You must take into account that some experts in Islamic law will interpret the laws differently and that you must be very careful to follow your beliefs very strictly to avoid being unlawful in your business ventures. Find a knowledgeable Islamic Forex Trading advisor to help you get started. They must be aware of all the rules on profits and loss. A great deal of experience would be helpful and you should check the credentials of the person you want to work with. When you are a little more experienced in the business end, you will be more comfortable with your Forex trading.

If you are looking to secure a complete trading experience with the use of high level Fibonacci ratios, DiNapoli Indicators are the best. These indicators can be applied to Forex trading

What is DiNapoli?
DiNapoli is termed to be one of the effective indicators for identifying the price movements in the market. It is a very significant tool in the investment markets and has found regular usage, when there is a need of comlete and modular trading approach.

Common Features of DiNapoli Indicators:

• With DiNapoli indicators, you can have a moving average of both leading as well as lagging indicators.
• The analysis presented by DiNapoli indicators is easy to interpret and use too.
• DiNapoli indicators are modular and hence can be used together as well as selectively.
• DiNapoli ratios directly talk about the performances of a trading activity and thus present opportunities.

Application of DiNapoli Analysis to Investment Markets
Fibonacci ratios can be practically applied to problems faced in investment markets. DiNapoli indicators are derived and developed from Fibonacci ratios. Advanced Fibonacci techniques were developed by Joe DiNapoli during 1985 to 1987. DiNapoli Analysis is used to determine profitability.

Following are the main benefits of DiNapoli indicators:
Application: Fibonacci theory can directly be applied to various trading opportunities. Thus, it becomes easier for people to identify opportunities and apply these tools in day to day trading sessions

Market Direction: A trader can spot trend and direction of market and a security with the help of each DiNapoli indicators. Thus, he can have a clear idea about the volume trading and price momentum.

Transformations: A trader can identify resistance level for a trading security. This will in turn help him to find out a level at which the price trends might change.

Consistency: Traders can build and trade through a consistent and regular trading strategy, if they follow all the rules and application guidelines related to DiNapolis indicators.

DiNapolis Indicators: Comprehensive Set

DiNapolis D-Levels: DiNapoli makes the use of Logical Profit Objectives (LPOs). LPOs are used to calculate the likely resistance and support levels.

DiNapoli Oscillator: A predicting oscillator forecasts one period ahead of current time period by creating a set of parametric equations. The resultant values are put across through bands on the bar chart. These bands are put both below and above the market.

DiNapoli Retracement Tool: This tool helps to show lineage markings and thus helps the trader to identify strong support and resistance areas.

DiNapoli Expansion Tool: This tool uses combination of expansion and retracement levels in DiNapoli techniques to further add to the accurateness of this approach.

DiNapoli Displaced Moving Average: This indicator displaces the moving average for forward looking period in time. This offers various benefits to the trades, like helping to locate the trend delineation point and finding out how time should lapse between today and that point. Thus, you can plan your market strategy accordingly

Proper learning to use the expansion and retracement level combinations can help to improve the accuracy of this approach.

Tip From ForexStar

If CMF < = 0 Signal of Bearish Market, Increased Selling

It’s best to consider the time period for which the CMF shows 0 or negative value. If this has been witnessed for a longer time, it is understood that the selling has been in force for a longer time. This is the second way to judge the bearish scenario.

The third way to judge a bearish scenario is to check the degree or intensity of the oscillator. This is also known as the absolute degree of oscillator. If the neutral CMF value is 0, the bullish signal is indicated when the value rises above 0 and the bearish signal is indicated when the value falls below 0. For instance, a 0.15 CMF indicates bullish signal and –0.15 indicates bearish signal. Mark Chaikin has advocated the degree at +/- 0.25. +0.25 indicates strong bullish market, while –0.25 indicates strong bearish market. The degree gets more intense as and when it goes more positive or negative on the CMF value.

Uses
Mark Chaikin advocates not using two similar indicators. The reason is that two similar indicators would calculate the value based on more or less same factors, leading to indication of similar signals. Hence, Chaikin Money Flow can go well with either Moving Averages or Relative Strength Index. Chaikin also advises to use a time period of 21 days, which is ideally 1 trading month. A smaller time period may be good, but may prove not sufficient for a proper analysis. While a bigger time period (more than 21 days) may have lags.

• In an “up trendâ€‌ or a “bullishâ€‌ market on a particular day, the volume of that day is added to OBV.
  oآ آ آ  I.E Present OBV = OBV Yesterday + Today’s Volume
• In a “down trendâ€‌ or “bearishâ€‌ market, the trade volume is subtracted from the OBV.
  oآ آ آ  I.E Present OBV = OBV Yesterday – Today’s Volume
• OBV is not affected when the closing prices don’t change.
  oآ آ آ  I.E Present OBV = OBV Yesterday (No change)

The Uses
OBV goes with the assumption – “Volumes lead Priceâ€‌. The changes in the volumes are largely based on direction. If the volumes are high on a day, the in flow of the money into that currency is also high. Thus, people trade more leading to increase in the price. When the volume is more in an up-trend, it is denoted by the “bullishâ€‌ line. If the price follows the up-trend, the OBV confirms the up-trend. This is a healthy market scenario. But if the volumes drop even when the price moves up, it is noted as a “negative divergenceâ€‌ signal. This indicates of an unhealthy trend and a trader should not go by this trend. A smart trader does not go by the inflated figure of the OBV, but by the OBV trend and its correlation to the currency prices.

The Disadvantages
The disadvantage of OBV, which traders cite out, is its idea of generalizing. OBV only considers the direction in which the price moves. Since the variable increase / decrease in the price is ignored, traders argue that it may at times not provide the correct signal. For instance – If the previous day closing price of 1 USD = 0.80 EUR and the present day closing price is 0.90 EUR, the OBV considers only today’s closing price. But the movements of price in the whole trading day, which range between 0.80 to 0.90 EUR are ignored. If these movements and their relative volumes are considered while calculating OBV, the method turns out to be more accurate.

Forex traders always think of ways to enhance the indicator that they use for trading. One way to make the OBV indicator more effective to help trading decisions is to use chart trading. Still traders have differing opinions on how to enhance this indicator, this method is yet popular and most used one for Forex trading.

Tip From ForexStar

The RSI computes the value of the indicator by comparing the scale of a currency’s recent profits to the scale of its losses. This computed value can range between 0-100. RSI considers a single factor, which is the time period. J. Welles Wilder proposes the use of 14 such time periods. Lets look at how RSI is being calculated. The formula to calculate the RSI is given below

Given a data, RSI first sums up the amount for all previous gains or losses respectively. This data is usually taken for standard 14 time periods as suggested by Wilder. If the cases are more or less than 14, the calculation value is changed accordingly. RSI is a running calculation indicator, so the accuracy degree depends on how much old are the time periods used in the calculation. The “First Average Gainâ€‌ is an estimated value, which helps to get the later values accurate. Therefore, one must have such 14 estimated values already calculated in hand. Thus “First Average Gainâ€‌ is the total value of 14 such time periods divided by 14. The calculation for “First Average Lossâ€‌ too goes in the same way, except for replacing the gains with the figures of losses.

The next step in this running calculation is computing next average gain / loss values with the help of previous values. This is done by multiplying the previous average gain / loss value by 13 and then adding the present average gain / loss value. Dividing the result as calculated, by 14, derives the final output. This is also termed as “smoothingâ€‌ of the value.

The “RELATIVE STRENGTHâ€‌ is calculated by dividing “Average Gainâ€‌ by “Average Lossâ€‌ for each time period.

The computation of RSI (Relative Strength Index) is then calculated by conversion of the RS value into an oscillator, which ranges between 0-100. The formula for the same is given above.

The RSI increases when the RS value exceeds 1. This happens when Average Gain exceeds the Average Loss. The RSI decreases when the RS value falls beyond 1, i.e. goes negative. This happens in strikingly opposite scenario, where Average Loss exceeds Average Gain. Theoretically, if Average Loss is 0, the RSI is 100, which is the maximum value for the RSI.

Uses

While using overbought or oversold values, Wilder suggested using 70 and 30 respectively. So, the scenario becomes bullish when the RSI crosses 30 and bearish when it is low than 70. The traders hence identify the entry / exit points with the help of strong signals.

Tip From ForexStar

We come across different types of moving averages, which are based on the way these averages are computed. Still, the basis of interpretation of averages is similar across all the types. The computation of each type set itself different from other in terms of weightage it lays on the prices of the currencies. Current price trend is always given a higher weightage. The three basic types of moving averages are viz. simple, linear and exponential.

A simple moving average is the simplest way to calculate the moving price averages. The historical closing prices over certain time period are added. This sum is divided by the number of instances used in summation. For example, if the moving average is calculated for 15 days, the past 15 historical closing prices are summed up and then divided by 15. This method is effective when the number of prices considered is more, thus enabling the trader to understand the trend and its future direction more effectively.

A linear moving average is the less used one out of all. But it solves the problem of equal weightage. The difference between simple average and linear average method is the weightage that is provided to the position of the prices in the latter. Let’s consider the above example. In linear average method, the closing price on the 15th day is multiplied by 15, the 14th day closing price by 14 and so on till the 1st day closing price by 1. These results are totaled and then divided by 15.

The exponential moving average method shares some similarity with the linear moving average method. This method lays emphasis on the smoothing factor, there by weighing recent data with higher points than the previous data. This method is more receptive to any market news than the simple average method. Hence this makes exponential method more popular among traders.

Moving averages methods help to identify the correct trends and their respective levels of resistance.

Tip From ForexStar

آ 

The double crossover method helps generate buy/sell signals with the use of two moving averages patterns. Trading decisions can be made in a simpler way with this method. When the shorter average pattern crosses over the longer one, the signal indicated is a “BUY (Bullish)â€‌ one. Similarly, when the longer average pattern crosses over the shorter one, the signal is taken as a “SELL (Bearish)â€‌ signal.

There are many combinations in which the double crossover method may be employed. Some popular combinations used in this method are 5-20 DMA (Days Moving Averages), 20-50 DMA or 10-50 DMA. Though this method may give some misleading signals known as “whipsawsâ€‌, but it yet lags the market due to use of historical data. This method may not have the trader exactly near the dot trend, but gets him somewhere closer to the same. Still, double crossover moving average method is considered to be one hand above the traditional simple moving averages method. The reason for the same is that the double crossover method uses two patterns of moving averages instead of one.

We have tried to explain this concept through a graphical example above. The pink line in the graph above represents a 5-DMA and the red line represents a 20-DMA. At the lower end of the graph, you can see the pink line crossing over the red line. Since the shorter moving average crosses the longer one, the intersection point is indicated as a “BUYâ€‌ signal. Similarly when the longer moving average crosses over the shorter one at the top of the graph, the intersection point is a “SELLâ€‌ signal.

The double crossover method is apt for currencies those follow the trends than market ranges. Some traders may question the use of closing prices of currencies while calculating the moving averages. Some may use a mid-value price, while few others may use price bands for day’s high & lows prices. Altogether, use of two averages for crossover can help detect buy/sell signals more effectively.

While analyzing crossover trends, a trader must see that the moving averages cover a lengthened time span. If the time span covered is less, lesser is the use of the trend to understand the signals. If the moving averages show a flat direction or a turned movement, it means that there can be trend reversal. Hence a trader must evaluate the trend patterns correctly to understand the right signals

Tip From ForexStar

Speculation, hedging and arbitrage are the three key factors that dominate and influence Forex trading. While every trader may have one of these reasons to play with currencies, the technical analysis helps to forecast the price movements of these currencies. Many technical analysis tools are used to arrive at judgmental trading decisions. Forex market is a round the clock market and therefore the analysis should capture the very minute price movements.

آ 

The historical data serves as a strong base for such analysis. The oldest technical analysis tool, known as “candlestickâ€‌, is believed to hail from Japan since the 18th Century. Then came the very popular “Dow Theoryâ€‌ in the 19th century, laid down by the very famous Dow Jones.

Any technical analysis would be based upon three assumptions viz.,

• A price trend always has a reason
• Historical trends may repeat
• All considerations in the analysis are based on the current market trend.

A good technical analysis is based on different trend patterns designed by the technical analysts. A best technical analyst would always advice to go along with the current trend, that is a trader should “Go Long or Holdâ€‌ in an upside trend and “Go Short or Sellâ€‌ in a downside trend. Technical analysis is all about charting out different patterns so as to enable the trader to decide on the best pattern and follow the same in his trading decision. The popular technical analysis tools are charts, trend patterns and technical indicators.

Technical analysts use the historical trends and market analysis to correlate it with the current factors affecting the market. This helps to understand the price direction in the future. Hence technical analysis involves much of mathematical calculations and statistical analysis. A number of technical analysis indicators have been widely used, again as per the perceptions and beliefs of the traders. Political, social, psychological and economic events largely affect the technical analysis. A good reason why technical analysis has gained much significance than any other analysis is its ability to gauge the very smallest movements in the market trends.

Technical analysis indicators are many and are based on different ways of analysis. They are based on moving averages, volumes, volatility and range. Moving average based indicators include three types – Moving Average, Moving Average Envelope and Moving Average Convergence Divergence. The volume-based indicators are again classified into Volume, On Balance Volume, Chaikin Money Flow indicator and Accumulation/Distribution. The famous “Bollinger Bandsâ€‌ & “Fibonacci Retracementâ€‌ are based on volatility analysis. Relative Strength Index and Stochastic method are based on range.

Why Technical Analysis?
While we have explained in brief about technical analysis, you would be keen to know why technical analysis serves as a popular tool in Forex trading. Large hedge funds, financial institutions, banks, corporates dominate Forex market. While they have the state-of-the-art technology to keep an eye on the market movements, they still adapt technical analysis to ensure that all political, social, psychological and economic factors are considered while analyzing the future price movements. Technical analysis is the best tool to identify right trends with correct prices.

The is also the risk factor for the accounts. With futures and options you can get margin calls that can wipe you out. If you get caught in a bad trade not only do you lose the money in the account but you may have to come up with alot more from your pocket. It can be very risking. But not in Forex. Worst case senerio you could lose whats in you account. But you would have to do something really stupid. Like making a big trade on a Fundamental day and leave it alone. If market takes a bad move and you weren’t there. OOOPS. But That wouldn’t happen with a smarth trader.

Then there are the demo accounts which is an account where you can trade using all the right things, platform,charts,and information. But you are using play money, or what we call paper trading too.

Plus with Forex you have a mini account. Instead of needing thousands of dollars to get into it. You can open an account with as little as $300.00. Now of course you will be trading at 1 tenth of a trade. IN other words you controling 10,000 instead of 100,000.00 These are call lots. Which also means you will only risk 1 tenth too!

So if you would love to learn to do investing and not have near the risk you really need to take a closer look at Forex trading.

by Mike Pachuta

A few additional points, which create such powerful leverage for investors within the forex market are: The amount of capital required to begin investing in the market is only three hundred dollars. For the most part, any other investment market is going to demand thousands of dollars of the investor in the beginning. Also, the market offers opportunities to profit regardless what the direction of the market may be; In most commonly known markets investors sit and wait for the market to begin an up trend before entering a trade. Even then, investors, as a rule must sit and wait some more to be able to exit the trade with a nice profit. Given that the forex market produces several up, down, and sideways trends in a single day, it can easily be seen that forex stands head and shoulders above other markets. Additionally there are trading strategies, which are taught that provide for compounded profits; these are profits on top of profits. In addition, free demo accounts are available within the industry of forex trading, which facilitate the sharpening of skills without the risk losing any capital. And the advantage regarding the time factor in trading foreign currency is a very attractive point for any investor. Compared to one of the most sought after avenues of investing, which often requires forty or more hours each week, namely in the real-estate market, the forex market requires a much smaller demand on the investor’s time. Forex trading requires approximately ten to fifteen hours each week to earn a full time income. It’s easy to see that the advantages and great leverage that exist in the forex market, make it among the most lucrative, time liberating, and easy to enter by far.

I hope this information gives you a clear understanding of how you can turn your investing into a true method of making your money work harder for you.

by Joe Clinton

What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?

When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a “mini account”, which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each “pip” or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.

The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.

Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.

The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with “paper money”, or “fake money.” Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.

Click on the chart for a zoomed in view

Source: Bloomberg

The most recent IMM Commitment of Traders report shows that USD longs were cut back substantially. This suggests that traders are starting to turn dollar bearish which is in line with the recent improvements in risk appetite.

source: Deutsche Bank

There is also an article in today’s NY Times that suggest better than expected results from stress tests based upon quotes from a “senior official.â€‌ Tests of Banks May Bring Hope More Than Fear

The central question in the financial markets right now is whether the global recession is nearing an end. In addition to the U.S., improvements were also seen in the Chinese and the U.K. manufacturing sectors. The price action of the currency, equity and bond markets suggest investors believe that the worst is over. The U.S. Treasury yield curve is steepening, which means that longer term rates are rising. This is a reflection of the market’s optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy. However we are only cautiously optimistic because it is far too early to label the recent improvements a new trend.

Wad of Cash

One of the primary arguments for a recovery and further gains in equities is the wad of cash sitting on sidelines. According to JPMorgan, close to $700 billion is parked in bank accounts and money market funds in the U.S. alone and therefore deployment of these funds could pave the way for a stronger recovery in currencies and equities. If you remember, the recession was triggered by a crisis of confidence and if confidence is restored, the money sitting on the sidelines may move back into the markets. We will be watching closely to see if the recent stability can turn into sustainability here in the U.S. and abroad. In the meantime, it is encouraging to see currency, equity, commodities and bond traders all price in a greater chance of a recovery.

article from kathylien

The primary difference is that the loans backing a covered bond remain on the balance sheet of the issuing bank. The bonds are therefore obligations of the issuing bank, and the issuer retains control over the assets. Traditional mortgage and asset-backed securities are typically off-balance-sheet transactions in which lenders sell loans to special purpose vehicles that issue bonds, thus removing the loans—and the risk associated with those loans—from the lenders’ balance sheets.

Many European governments have introduced covered bonds.

According to PIMCO:

Germany introduced covered bonds, known as Pfandbriefe, in 1770 to finance public works projects. Since then, 24 other countries in Europe have adopted the covered bond structure, each with its own unique laws. In Spain, for example, covered bonds backed by mortgages, known as Cأ©dulas Hipotecarias, were created by a special law in 1981, while in France, covered bonds, known as obligations fonciأ¨res, can be traced as far back as 1852, with the establishment of the first mortgage bank, Credit Foncier de France. All countries with covered bond laws now allow for bonds backed by mortgages, while only a few allow covered bonds backed by public sector loans: Germany, France, Austria and Spain. In Denmark and Germany, covered bonds may also be secured by ship loans.

Oil, Oil, Oil

There is only answer to that question – and that is Oil, with a capital O. Talk of a recovery in the global economy has cemented the bottom in commodity prices. The price of oil is now above $50 a barrel, leaving the fear that oil prices could fall below $30, a distant memory. Over the past year, the positive correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar / U.S. dollar currency pair is more than 95 percent. The rise in oil prices is a direct consequence of the fall in the U.S. dollar and therefore it is the greenback that will determine the sustainability of the rally in oil prices and by extension, the Canadian dollar. The results from the stress tests on banks and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report poses the biggest threat to the U.S. dollar this week but we believe that the market will shrug off both event risks. A lot of the potential results from the stress tests have been leaked and the market is ignoring them for the most part. We also believe that non-farm payrolls will surprise to the upside given the improvement in the employment component of service sector ISM. Investors are focused on the recovery story and as long as the U.S. reports are not horrendous, risk appetite could hold steady which would be positive for the Canadian dollar.

Click on chart to enlarge

China Spending Spree Likely to Include Canada

Even though Canadians are annoyed by China’s ban on pork imports, the country’s spending spree should include Canadian resource companies. China has invested heavily in Canadian oil sand projects and there is a decent chance that they will take advantage of the cheap oil prices to add to their investments. Like the U.S., China has been flashing signs of a recovery and Canada will stand to benefit from an upturn in both economic giants.

But, 1.15 USD/CAD Hurts Exporters

The only problem is that a USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.15 is damaging for Canadian exporters. Canadian policy makers may be eyeing that level very closely because it represents significant support. If USD/CAD breaks below the 1.15 level, there is no meaningful support until 1.05. In this current economic environment, the Canadian economy may not be able to handle much more appreciation in the currency. It will also offset any gains that higher oil prices can provide for Canadian oil producers. Near term support in the currency pair comes in at 1.1685, which is exactly where the USD/CAD sell-off stopped intraday. A further rebound up to 1.1850 is possible, but as long as the currency pair does not break above 1.1945 on a closing basis, it should be looked at as an opportunity to add to short USD/CAD positions. There is scope for further gains in the Canadian dollar this month – I expect a test of the 1.15 level.

Click on chart to enlarge

article from kathylien

This morning, Challenger Gray & Christmas reported the smallest increase in layoffs since September. According to payroll agency ADP, private sector payrolls declined by -491k last month, the smallest increase since October. Although the ADP report has been a poor predictor of non-farm payrolls, it has been relatively reliable directionally and therefore confirms our suspicion that payrolls declined by less than 600k last month.

source: Bloomberg

Yet we still expect the U.S. economy to have lost at least 1/2 million jobs in April and for the unemployment rate to hit a 25 year high. This is indicative of weakness from nearly all perspectives, but it is a start because companies need to slow firing before they can even consider hiring. This is a step in the right direction towards a labor market recovery and why I believe the dollar will trade lower against the higher yielding currencies today.

article from kathylien

Read Boris’ take on the Bank of England Rate Decision

Before talking about why the euro recovered, here are the 4 key announcements made by the ECB today:

1. Cut Repo Rate from 1.25 to 1.00%
2. Narrow Rate Corridor by 50bp (Marginal Lending Rate Cut by 50bp to 1.75%)
3. Extend maturity of refinancings to 12 months
4. Announced purchases of up to EU60 billion in euro-denominated covered bonds

There is no question that these are unprecedented measures for the European Central Bank. Everyone expected the quarter point rate cut to a record low of 1.00 percent, the decision to increase the maturity of refinancings to 12 months and also the narrowing of the rate corridor by 50bp, but the chance of purchasing euro-denominated covered bonds was low.

Nonetheless, Trichet has resorted to what many consider Quantitative Easing (even though he explicitly denied that this is QE) and rather than punishing the euro, currency traders are applauding the ECB for being flexible and realizing that there is no longer a stigma attached to asset purchases. Also, the amount of bonds that the ECB is purchasing is nominal compared to the rest of the central banks. The ECB plans on buying up to EU60 billion, which is less than half of the BoE’s Quantitative Easing program. More importantly however, Trichet suggested that they may sterilize the liquidity impact of bond purchases, which would limit the impact on the money supply and the pressure on the euro. The Fed and the BoE’s purchases are unsterilized. Finally, this is only an initial announcement. Further details on the bond plan will be released in June. Although rates are appropriate for the current time, the central bank could still take interest rates below 1 percent based upon Trichet’s comment that they have decided if rates have hit their lowest point

article from kathylien

Take a look at the 5 minute charts yourself to see how the EUR/USD traded intraday on the heels of the Non-farm payrolls report. Also read my article, April Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: The Charts that Matter

What does Moving Average mean?

A moving average is defined as dividing the sum of two or more figures by the number of figures. In trading, that means adding up the price inputs for a given number of time periods and then dividing the sum by the number of time periods. Thus:

(Price 1 + Price 2)
————
n

where n = the number of time periods.
Calculating simple moving averages can be useful for trend analysis and even in advanced computer trading systems. They are also used for identifying levels of support and resistance. Traders can use one moving average or combine a few different ones to overlay on their charts. By using short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term averages on top of a chart, you can see the
trend direction of market prices from a different perspective. Typical time periods for multiple moving averages are 4, 9, and 18 periods, but today’s software allows you to use any number of periods you want.

What are the MA types?

There are four (The well-known) type of Moving Average indicators:

Simple
Exponential
Smoothed
Linear Weighted

Simple Moving Average – SMA:

The Simple (Arithmetical) Moving Average is the simplest version yet the widely used one.
It calculates the average of the price by adding the prices of the specified period together then divides it by the number of the prices. For example the Moving Average of the last 50 days closing price is the addition of these prices divided by 50.

The SMA indicator gives all the values the equal weighted and that’s the different between it and the other types of moving average (and that’s what distinguish between one type from another).

Let’s give a look for a SMA of 20 days on the EURUSD daily chart.

I’ve mentioned above the closing price as the applied price for the Moving Average calculation; This is not the only price the Moving average can use, Moving average can use one of these prices kind:

Opening Price:
The instrument open price of the calculated period

Closing Price:
The instrument close price of the calculated period

Highest Price:
The instrument highest price of the calculated period

Lowest Price:
The instrument lowest price of the calculated period

Median Price:
The instrument median price of the calculated period, this price calculated as following:
Median Price = (High price + Low price) / 2

Typical Price:
The instrument typical price of the calculated period, this price calculated as following:
Typical Price = (High price + Low price + Close price) / 3

Weighted Price:
The instrument weighted close price of the calculated period, this price calculated as following:
Weighted Price = (High price + Low price + Close price + Close price) / 4

Exponential Moving Average – EMA:

Exponential moving averages are calculated from complex formulas and have become the most common averages used today by many quote vendors, analysts, and traders as they also are weighted to give more importance to the latest data from current market conditions, and older data that becomes less important as time passes are eventually filtered out.

Smoothed Moving Average – SMMA:

The Smoothed Moving Average indicator smoothes the Moving Average by giving the recent prices an equal weighted to the historic ones. It recommend to use the SMMA with long period to get better result.

Linear Weighted Moving Average – LWMA:

Linearly weighted moving averages can be calculated by taking, say, a five-day time period and multiplying the close of the last time period by five, multiplying the close of the previous time period by four, multiplying the close of the time period before that by three, and so on. Add the sum of all five time periods and then divide by five to get a weighted average that gives more significance to the most recent price action.

How to trade using Moving Average Indicators:

Actually studding the usage of Moving Average indicators in trading Forex needs a whole book but we try to know the most used usage of MA briefly in this section.

The important rule to bear in your mind is thatâ€‌ Where’s a trend where’s the Moving Averageâ€‌ which means the Moving Average work better in the trend market and they act bad in the time of fluctuations of the market

Moving Average Breakout:

In this method we need to plot a Moving Average Indicator on the chart (i.e. 24 hours LWMA on EURUSD Hourly chart).

When the price crosses the Moving Average down-up and there’s a complete candlestick above the Moving Average indicator we Buy.
When the price crosses the Moving Average up-down and there’s a complete candlestick below the Moving Average indicator we Sell.

Moving Averages Crosses:

In this method we need two (or more) Moving Average Indicators; The first one will be set with a small period (It called the Fast Moving Average) and the second one will be set with bigger period (It called the Slow Moving Average). i.e. 10 days EMA and 80 days EMA on EURUSD Daily chart.

When the Fast Moving Average crossed the Slow Moving Average down-up we Buy.
When the Fast Moving Average crossed the Slow Moving Average up-down we Sell.

Moving Averages Channel:

In this method of trading we use two Moving Average Indicators which hardly could cross each others (i.e. The first Moving Average is 10-Period SMA of the price high and the second Moving Average is 8-Period SMA of the price low)
These indicators will plot upper and lower boundaries of the channel.

When the price crosses and a complete candlestick is above the upper boundary of the channel we Buy.
When the price crosses and a complete candlestick is below the lower boundary of the channel we Sell.

There are thousands of methods and settings the traders use Moving Average to implement everyday trading.

tip from kickforex

On a technical basis, the chart below illustrates how USD/JPY is approaching very critical levels. We have a major head and shoulders pattern in place, the currency pair is attempting to enter the sell zone according to our Bollinger Bands and is approaching trend line support. For those of you that like Ichimoku clouds, it has also entered the cloud. Therefore a close below 96.80 would open the door for a significant slide.

Click on Chart to see Larger Version

article from kathylien

Many people have criticized the U.K. government’s response to the financial crisis and recession but U.K. officials may be having the last laugh. The latest string of economic data has been surprisingly strong. There are signs of stabilization in both the housing and labor markets. Last week, the Bank of England increased the size of their Quantitative Easing program to ensure that the recent improvements will continue.

According to the RICS House price balance, new buyer inquiries were the strongest in 10 years. Housing market turnover was still low, but that may soon improve as well. The BRC retail sales monitor also jumped 4.6 percent. As a leading indicator for the broader retail sales index, the data suggests that consumer spending improved materially in the month April. The early release of the employment numbers helps to explain why consumer spending has picked up. Although the unemployment rate hit a 10 year high, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits has decreased significantly while earnings saw a smaller than expected decline.

The Bank of England will be delivering its Quarterly Inflation report tomorrow. A more negative tone is expected given the comments made following the last monetary policy decision. This should lead to a correction in the GBP/USD, but that should be looked as an opportunity to add to long positions. I expect any retracement in the GBP/USD to be limited to 1.51 and I am still looking for a move to 1.55.

article from kathylien

Australia stands to benefit from both a U.S. and Chinese recovery. The Chinese government has previously said they are looking to increase their investments abroad and Australian commodities have long been an attractive investment for the Chinese. A growing nation has growing resource needs and the previous decline in commodity prices has encouraged China to add to their stockpiles at current levels. Australia is a big copper producer and Chinese demand for copper should remain strong thanks to their stimulus spending. Last month, the Australian labor market reported positive job growth which confirms my overall belief that when the dust settles, Australia will be first to rise from the ashes. Yes, the budget deficit is expected to hit record levels, but that is a problem that plagues all major economies.

With that in mind, I have my eye on EUR/AUD. This pair has a higher spread and is more volatile, but there is scope for a move down to 1.75. I’ve been bearish this pair since 1.85, and now the 1.80 level will serve as resistance.

article from kathylien

According to Walker, if the health care reforms strains finances further or if the federal government fails to monitor spending, tax or budget control, rating agencies could strip the U.S. of its credit rating.

Is Losing AAA Rating that Big of a Deal?

But is losing the AAA rating that big of a deal? Yes. A credit rating reflects the risk of default. Therefore a lower credit rating means that a country is at greater risk of defaulting on their debt. Some global funds are mandated to invest only in AAA debt and therefore if the U.S. loses its AAA rating, we could see a massive outflow of foreign investment. Also, a credit rating downgrade is the perfect excuse to push through an alternative reserve currency to replace the dollar because it would strip the confidence of sovereign funds like China that have been buying dollars to prop up the U.S. economy. Yes, investors will still buy U.S. Treasuries, but their purchases will be less. It could also have a spillover effect on corporate debt and will raise the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government.

How Real is the Risk?

Now with the risk in mind, I think that ratings agencies talk a good game but they will problems following through. The consequences of downgrading U.S. sovereign debt is huge both politically and economically. Therefore Moody’s or any rating agency for that matter may be reluctant to the first to pull the trigger. Downgrading the U.S. is very different from downgrading Ireland. Based upon how the rating agencies have handled the credit derivatives bubble, chances are they will be behind the curve once again.

With that in mind, U.S. finances are deteriorating significantly, raising the concern of Asian nations. However if President Obama is successful at turning around the U.S. economy, America will be well equipped to meet its debt obligations.

article from kathylien

In my article yesterday, Could America Lose Its Triple A Rating, I talk about how a ratings downgrade of U.S. debt would be the perfect excuse to push through an alternative reserve currency to replace the dollar because it would strip the confidence of sovereign funds.

In the NY Times Today, Nouriel Roubini touches on this point in detail:

Traditionally, empires that hold the global reserve currency are also net foreign creditors and net lenders. The British Empire declined — and the pound lost its status as the main global reserve currency — when Britain became a net debtor and a net borrower in World War II. Today, the United States is in a similar position. It is running huge budget and trade deficits, and is relying on the kindness of restless foreign creditors who are starting to feel uneasy about accumulating even more dollar assets. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.

But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies, as those countries are not major powers. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high. The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the renminbi.

I encourage you to read the entire Op-ed article The Almighty Renminbi?

article from kathylien

Fibonacci is the basis of many trading methodologies, and many billions of dollars are traded every year based on Fibonacci techniques alone.
There is a deep-rooted history associated with the basic principles of Fibonacci - named for the mathematician Leonardo Pisan Fibonacci – but we will instead focus on a series introductory articles about how you can use his series of numbers for analyzing the markets.

Let’s do cover a bit of ground before we can get to the charts. Fibonacci is best remembered for his Fibonacci sequence, which is the series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55…

As traders, we are most interested in the ratio between these numbers – called the Fibonacci ratios. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right, we derive some fairly consistent ratios.

The most important rations for trading are: .236, .50,.382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we include 1.00…. This can start to look complicated, but it really isn’t. It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature all around us. What’s more is that these rations are even prevalent in man-made objects.

There are many interesting, entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in the universe. Fibonacci numbers and ratios appear in ancient buildings, in plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course rabbit populations. But of what use is all that to the intrepid trader? Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the price scales and also to the time scales of charts. Many traders and analysts will apply Fibonacci analysis to the price scale.

Since prices never move in a straight line, you will easily see the ebb and flow of a currency on chart. More importantly, you can see how currency prices advance and retrace, and this is the key to using Fibonacci. All currencies that are liquid will often retrace and advance in Fibonacci proportions, but not always.

from kickforex

from kickforex

Pattern Psychology: The lack of a real body means the Bulls and the Bears are conflicting. This is an alert to investors to take heed for possible trend reversal. The doji needs a confirmation candle before you can act on it.

Pattern Psychology: This pattern suggests the Bulls are stepping in with force, suggesting prices will move up.

Pattern Psychology: This shows the Bears are overwhelming the Bulls, suggesting prices will move down.

Pattern Psychology: This pattern at the bottom of a down trend is called a Hammer. This pattern at the top of an uptrend is called a Hanging-Man

Pattern Psychology: After a strong downtrend, the atmosphere is Bearish but before the end of the day the Bulls step in and price closes near the high of the day. The Piercing Line pattern is the opposite of the Dark Cloud.

Pattern Psychology: After a strong uptrend, the atmosphere is Bullish but before the end of the day the Bears step in and price closes near the low of the day.

Pattern Psychology: After a strong downtrend the Bulls step in and open the price higher than the previous day’s close. This concerns the Bears and the shorts start covering their postions. A strong day after that would convince everybody that the trend may be in a reversal.

Pattern Psychology: After a strong uptrend the Bears step in and open the price lower than the previous day’s close. The price finishes lower for the day and the Bulls are concerned and begin taking their profits.

Pattern Psychology: After an apparant downtrend the Bulls step in and open the price higher than the previous day’s close. The price finishes higher for the day and the Bears are concerned and begin covering their short positions.

Pattern Psychology: After an apparant uptrend the Bears step in and open the price lower than the previous day’s open. The price finishes lower for the day and the Bulls are concerned and begin selling to take their profits.

Pattern Psychology: After a strong uptrend the Bulls appear to still be in control with price opening higher, but by the end of the day the Bears step in and take the price back down to the lower end of the trading range. Lower trading the next day reinforces the probability of a pullback.

Pattern Psychology: After a downtrend has been in effect, the atmosphere is Bearish. The price opens and trades lower but before the end of the day, The Bulls step in and take the price back up. A higher open or a white candle the next day reinforces buying.

from kickforex

Pros:

• Because of the amount of trades being placed, compounding has a greater effect on your overall profits.
• You can make money faster.
• Allows you to always be actively participating in the market.
• Because of the last two, traders can exhibit addictive behaviour (gambling).
• Risk control – positions are closed out overnight so unexpected market changes will not affect your bottom line.

Cons:

• Day trading is considered a risky trading style. Traders can lose a substantial amount of money in a very short period of time.
• It is commonly stated that 80-90% of day traders lose money.
• Spread has a larger effect on your overall profits.
• Very difficult to learn.
• Time consuming.
• Day trading is very stressful.
• Can be harder to predict the market.

tip from kickforex

No doubt that losing money in Forex is a very stressful and painful experience. Did you ever lose all of your money in Forex. I hope not. But, if it ever happen to you, the first question is “Did you have profitable trading rules?â€‌ and the second question is “Did you obey thems 100% in every trade?

Trading rules and being disclipined with them is the key of success in Forex. All successful traders create a trading rules and trade their rules. In this posting I will write the kind of rules you have to set up.

How to set up your trading rules:

Before you decide to enter the market, whatever your trading style you have to answer the questions below.

1- Where to enter a trade?
2- Where to exist a position?
3- Why should I trade?
4- How much your risk per a trade?

Where to enter a trade?

You have to know exactly where will you try to open the desired position? What happens if
your entry level is not reached? For example your collection of indicators giving you the entry signal

Where to exit a trade?

You have to know exactly where will you exit the position, both if it’s a winning position
(take profit) and if it’s a losing position (stop loss)? Exiting in the correct time without hoping of more profit or hoping that the loss decreasing is one of the very important points that you rules have to include!

Why should I trade?

When it is time to trade, you must think before you act. If you act before you think and make mistakes, your subconscious mind will
take over and record all your ignorant actions and subconsciously create bad trading habits.

Why should you trade?

The question itself needs to be clearer! The question means “There are times that you have to enter the market, and there are times that you have to exit the market, right, Huh? well, there are times that you should not trade at all?â€‌

How much your risk per a trade?
It depends to your money management strategy. I recommend that your risk per a trade should never exceed 3% per trade. It’s better to adjust your risk to 1% or 2% but if you are confident in your trading system then you can lever your risk up to 3%.

The last advise to finish this posting because the most of us forget to answer it daily and hourly even minutely:

1- Being disciplined with them!
2- Being disciplined with them!
3- Being disciplined with them!
4- “Plan your trade and trade your planâ€‌ Which means “Being disciplined with them!â€‌

The Forex markets really have momentum from 23:00 EDT through until 06:00 EDT. Outside of that there is generally very little sustainable movement with the exception of the yen based pairs following U.S. equities. New trades really need to be placed by 23:00 EDT in an effort to catch the afternoon Tokyo trade session and the momentum of Europe opening. The U.S. session begins with U.S. Futures traders following a pattern of Forex trade that reverses whatever came from Europe.

If by 06:00-07:00 EDT the trade has not been filled, then take it off. If it is in profit at that time then lock in profit before the reversal move takes place. If it is a yen based trade do not look to place it again until 10:00 EDT, after the first 30 minutes of equity trade so that a direction bias can be found and the strength of U.S. equity moves can be seen.

From 08:30 EDT to 10:00 EDT any U.S. dollar based pairs are totally reliant upon a fundamental driver to get them to follow through; therefore check the U.S. calendar before placing orders at that time. By 10:00 EDT most European markets are running into their close. Longer-term trade positions looking for a bigger target and carrying a bigger stop may not have to be as concerned with the daily noise created by the U.S. reversal pattern of trade. For new orders, it is an important pattern of trade to build into your trade plan.

Note:

The EDT is GMT-5 (UTC-4 during daylight saving time).

tip from kickforex

Because of the size of the Japanese market and the importance of Japanese data to the market, much of the action during the Asia-Pacific session is focused on the Japanese yen currency pairs (explained more in Chapter 2), such as USD/JPY – forexspeak for the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen — and the JPY crosses, like EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. Of course, Japanese financial institutions are also most active during this session, so you can frequently get a sense of what the Japanese market is doing based on price movements.

For individual traders, overall liquidity in the major currency pairs is more than sufficient, with generally orderly price movements. In some less liquid, non-regional currencies, like GBP/USD or USD/CAD, price movements may be more erratic or nonexistent, depending on the environment.

The European session overlaps with half of the Asian trading day and half of the North American trading session, which means that market interest and liquidity is at its absolute peak during this session. News and data events from the Eurozone (and individual countries like Germany and France), Switzerland, and the United Kingdom are typically released in the early-morning hours of the European session. As a result, some of the biggest moves and most active trading takes place in the European currencies (EUR, GBP, and CHF) and the euro crosscurrency pairs (EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP).

Asian trading centers begin to wind down in the late-morning hours of the European session, and North American financial centers come in a few hours later, around 7 a.m. ET.

The North American morning is when key U.S. economic data is released and the forex market makes many of its most significant decisions on the value of the U.S. dollar. Most U.S. data reports are released at 8:30 a.m. ET, with others coming out later (between 9 and 10 a.m. ET). Canadian data reports are also released in the morning, usually between 7 and 9 a.m. ET. There are also a few U.S. economic reports that variously come out at noon or 2 p.m. ET, livening up the New York afternoon market. London and the European financial centers begin to wind down their daily trading operations around noon eastern time (ET) each day. The London, or European close, as it’s known, can frequently generate volatile flurries of activity.

On most days, market liquidity and interest fall off significantly in the New York afternoon, which can make for challenging trading conditions. On quiet days, the generally lower market interest typically leads to stagnating price action. On more active days, where prices may have moved more significantly, the lower liquidity can spark additional outsized price movements, as fewer traders scramble to get similarly fewer
prices and liquidity. Just as with the London close, there’s never a set way in which a New York afternoon market move plays out, so traders just need to be aware that lower liquidity conditions tend to prevail, and adapt accordingly.

tip from kickforex

The road to that point starts with repetition. It’s the same philosophy in the military for training soldiers in basic training. If you want an individual to be able to perform in a high stress environment, you attempt to simulate that environment, and then you make them execute the task at hand, or the plan, over and over and over again. The idea is to get them to go beyond memorization, to get completely out of their own head to where they are not even thinking about what they are doing; they are just doing. Once they are physically executing the plan with speed and ease with little if any mental input, they are ready to go live. Once they survive, and go on to have successful live experiences, and start to approach the same levels of speed and ease in an actual stressful environment as they did in the simulator, then they are in a position where they’re intuition can contribute. They can make the connection that the sound around the corner is the footfall of a boot, or a loafer, and react accordingly; while the person lacking training, or still caught up in thinking, is not even sure if there was a noise or not.

Well it is the same thing in trading. It starts with back-testing to understanding the signals. Then it evolves to demo trading on different time frames where for long-term trading you don’t consider fundamental news releases, and for short-term you do. Then it evolves from taking every signal to passing on certain signals because of timing, or trend stance. You know were the trend-lines are because you placed them your self going back in time as far as you can. You know where the previous highs and lows and Pivot Points are because you know their colors. And you recognize dojis and hammers and inside bars and change of direction candles the instant they close and you know what they mean in the context of the current and previous trends. And you know the current momentum of the market from your technical indicators, and you know when the next significant news release is coming out, and you know there is absolutely nothing for you to do till the candle closes, and you know exactly what you are going to do, depending on where it closes. At that point you are still demo trading but you are starting to glimpse your potential, and you know you can’t rush it because that would not be showing patience. You concentrate on not missing trend triggers and avoiding questionable counter-trend triggers because you need to know what your win/loss and risk/reward ratios are going to be over time. You need this information because you know that the only way to subconsciously believe you can succeed at trading is to do it yourself in a demo account.

Then you have to replicate that same process in a live account with your hard earned money, and succeed at it. Then, over time your intuition may bud like a plant. And that is where we want to be going.

This article is taken from ForexFactory

The failure rate for any endeavor that requires talent, skill, and perhaps even luck is always higher than the success rate. The more difficult the task is, the higher the rate of failure.

How many traders are successful at trading Forex? It’s difficult at best to speculate. What is success? Is it making a 6 figure income, earning greater than 5% a year, or maybe even just holding on to your capital? Also, how do you define failure? Is it losing your stake, or is it just walking away from the business?

Let’s assume that trading failure is losing all of your capital within the first year of trading. If that is true, is it really any surprise that 90-95% of fledging retail traders lose all their money in a relatively short span of time? Most individuals have the unrealistic expectation that they can make a quick fortune with a small investment by over leveraging and over trading without any training, experience, or a well thought out business plan.

Of course you can always find someone or something to blame on your lack of success (such as broker manipulation, bank interventions, random events, or even sun spots and El Niأ±o), but I personally believe you are only a failure if you quit. Take responsibility for your successes and failures, and if you aren’t seeing the results you desire, dig down deep and find what it takes to make your goals a reality.

Up until recently, it was a widely held belief that 90% of all start up business failed within the first 1-5 years. Now more accurate statistics are emerging that show the figures to be closer to 50-60%. Perhaps that will hold true for trading as well, but even if it doesn’t, remember that failing is easy and requires little effort while success is a challenge and requires hard work and dedication.

Get your mind right, Maarten. If others have learned to be successful at this game, you potentially can too.

tip from kickforex

There is unquestionably a lot of info we need to learn before we can trade. The good news is each lesson, or layer, is relatively simple. If we try to layer on the information too quickly, or look at it all at once, it will appear complicated.
pBut if we stay patient, and learn each layer in its proper order, over time we will see that what to others appears complicated, is actually simple.

By kickforex

In this of posting I’ll introduce to you some of the best money management methods that have been developped by Elder Alexander, the great forex and stock traders. In his book “Come to my trading roomâ€‌ in chapter 7 that labeled “Money Management Formulasâ€‌, he introduced the 2%-6% rules money management strategy.

Sharks and piranhas :

Elder said “The goal of money management is to accumulate equity by reducing losses on losing trades and maximizing gains on winning trades.â€‌ and he affirm that Everyone in the market (competitor traders and brokers) want to eat your money, they have two ways to eat your money:

1- A big single shark bite that wipe of all or the most of your capital.

2- A series of small piranhas bites that none of them is lethal alone but which together strip an account to the bone.

The 2%-6% rules is the Money Management method that protects you from the sharks and piranhas.
2% limit rule:

The first thing you should do to keep your balance away of the sharks is to limit your lose at any trade to 2% of your equity. If you have 100,000 USD in your trading account. So, you have to risk 100,000 x 2% = 2,000 USD in any of your trades. You have to set your stop loss to this level and you have not lose at any trade you make more than 2% of your equity. Some of professional traders use less than 2% but no more than 2%.

Whenever you make a loss or a profit you have to recalculate the 2% of the equity to know your new maximum risk per trade. For example if you made a profit trade and your account now is 110,000 USD, your maximum risk will be 2,200 USD. At the other hand if you made a loss and and your account now is 90,000 USD, your maximum risk will be 1,800 USD.

tip from kickforex

What’s the USDX (US Dollar Index)?

The USD Index (USDX) measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies. The selected currencies are 6 currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. This index started in 1973 with a base of 100 and is relative to this base.

How the USDX is calculated?

As mentioned above the USDX is calculated against 6 currencies and it is calculated with this formula:

USDX = 50.14348112 أ— EURUSD ^-0.576 أ— USDJPY ^0.136 أ— GBPUSD ^-0.119 أ— USDCAD ^0.091 أ— USDSEK ^0.042 أ— USDCHF ^0.036

In the formula above we can notice two things:

1- Not all the currencies have the same weight, but there are currencies more important than others. Table 1 and image 1 show the weight of each currency.

2- When the the USD is the base currency the value is positive and when it the USD is the quote currency the value is negative.

Note: The above value is compared against the US Dollar relative to March 1973. March 1973 was chosen as a base period because it represents a significant milestone in foreign exchange history when the world’s major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely against each other.

What the USDX is useful for?

It’s very obvious that when the strength or weakness of the US dollar in the USDX means the same strength or weakness against the currencies that the USD is a part of its pairs. So, you can use the USDX to predict the movement of your favorite

What makes a successful trader and trading system?

I have been inspired to speak from the heart today because every day I see a new advertised trading system being sold for $100 or more. Why do you think you have to use an automated system to be a success? Are you afraid to trade the markets? Do you want to blame someone else for your loses? It’s time to understand what YOU have to do to succeed in building wealth for you and yours. NO MORE LOSES!!!

First step…Education and Dreaming BIG!

Read everything. Visit every website. This process can take a year or longer; so what. Do it! There are plenty of resources on the web and in your local bookstore. In order to break through the blockade you must understand the history. This is true with any venture taken on the path to a fulfilling life. Some of us have spent 15+ years in our development from a young age to become who we are today. It’s time to take steps backwards to take giant leaps forward and remember our childhood; remember how we we’re educated and the experiences we had that contributed to who we are today. The critical analysis of who we are will give you a purpose behind your trading. It’s not about profits, it’s not about YOU! This is bigger than us and our small deposits are small peas in this big world! The real questions that should be asked are why we trade and what do we want out of it?
I would recommend demo trading as much as possible until you have not one, but many mental breakthroughs. We are all given a unique eye to see the world; to act or react in given situations. Newton’s law states that for every action there is a reaction. Be aware of the implications behind every trade until it becomes second nature and you will be successful. You don’t need to double or triple a demo account, just be consistent.

Step two…A strategy should be based on your risk appetite.

Opening your first account can be quite exciting and you’ll want to jump in and trade ASAP. Be patient! Your strategy should be based on your risk appetite, so make sure you have an exit before you make any entries. Here is a quote from Sun Tzu’s Art of War,

“The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.â€‌

Ask yourself these questions:
1. Do I hold on to losing trades?
2. Do I add to losing positions?
3. Do I have sleepless nights?
4. Do I miss out because I over think entries or exits?
5. Do I let missed opportunities get me down?
If you answered yes to more than one of these then the only person to blame is yourself. You must improve on your thoughts and actions before you can develop an optimal trading strategy, go back to the drawing board. To appreciate and understand the positive and negative experiences could bring enlightenment to you and your strategy. When you can remove yourself and your emotions, you will see the market for the first timeJ.

Step three…Greed, Fear, & Ignorance

I don’t want to write too much on these. Albert Einstein summed it up pretty good when he said these 3 forces rule the world. I would recommend studying psychology. You will see how much it impacts markets moves.
In conclusion, I have seen successful automated systems and am not completely against them. There are just way too many that have been optimized to look attractive. I would recommend saving your money and investing in your own education before using an EA. This isn’t for everyone and it’s ok to walk away. You’ll be a better person through your experience.
Last quote from The Art of War,

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.â€‌

I speak from experience and I have failed. I wish nobody to go through what I went through. Sometimes you have to crawl through sh** to come out smelling like roses.

Written by sleep1Iopen

The below list comprises a number of different observations of myself and others through experience working with traders of all shapes and sizes, and is equally relevant to all. Some of the information is rehashed and/or might sound cliche, but here it is:

They are experienced - Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will compound millions in an extremely short amount of time when starting off. The only true way to make every day profitable comes through experience, and countless hours learning is crucial to longevity of success.

They know the damage they are capable of - Notice I didn’t say potential or profits here. The best traders I know of understand their limits, and seem to focus more on what can go wrong than what can go right. They are not easily convinced of lucrative outcomes, and have a very high sense of self-awareness.

They trade to make money, not to be right - They understand the strengths and possible pitfalls of what it is they do for a living, and use that knowledge to curb their emotional output.

They have an edge and know how to use it – They understand that without it they wouldn’t last long

They have a gameplan, and follow it explicitly – Each trade is planned and opportunities are scouted for before any trading takes place. They steer away from the killers of all killers: overtrading.

They manage risk – Regardless of how much conviction they have on a trade, they will still do what they can to avoid the potential of any losses and understand rule #1 about trading: anything can happen.

They work obsessively – They follow each turn, each piece of info that comes out in regards to their trade, and follow any underlying information relevant to failure or success.

They only access the best information – Information rules in trading, and having some of the best translates to money. Using the wrong information leads to failure.

They think about the trade, not the money behind it - Focusing on money can destroy your means to objectively assess the trade itself.

They are constantly learning - Just when you think you know it all about trading, a new curveball gets thrown your way, not to mention there are continued means and methods to be learned about making money. Even the most highly successful trader I ever knew, a multi-billion dollar portfolio manager, has a team of fundamentalists and technicians come in to train and retrain himself and his traders.

They are active – Activity sparks creativity, a very crucial part of trading.

They have patience – They understand that the money will come, but everything needs to be in place, first.

by BillyRayValentine

Scam – A Definition

Broad Definition: A scam is a dishonest attempt to get you to part with your money by making exaggerated claims or by failing to deliver the goods promised.

Specific Definition: According to Merriam-Webster’s dictionary, a scam is “a fraudulent or deceptive act or operation”.

Some make money scams currently circulating on the internet are paid survey schemes, home typing schemes, and pay to join affiliate programs. Not all enterprises going under those categories are scams but many are and you need to be careful. So the question arises: Is Forex trading just another ‘make money scam?’

The question arises because anyone who browses the internet will see numerous adverts making all sorts of claims. Some promise huge returns on investment in a short time. Does the Forex make money? Absolutely! The question is, for whom? The daily turnover by some estimates is around $1.8 trillion. Anyone with a computer and internet connection can go online and participate in the marketplace.

Is the promise of profits from the Forex just a scam then? No, thousands are making good money. There are so many advantages! Working from home, with just a small starting investment, a steady income stream can be created. Of great importance however are realistic expectations and a practical approach. First realize you are going to have to do your homework, get a good education, and then spend months developing the mental disciplines necessary for online trading.

A Major NO! NO!

DON’T, repeat, DON’T, sign up with an online broker and sink thousands of dollars into your account. You will ended up getting slaughtered, almost guaranteed. And if you are currently out of work you have even added reason to proceed very, very cautiously. Some unscrupulous companies do catch the unwary in Forex based money making scams.

If large returns are promised if you invest a large amount of money, and pressure is exerted to get you to sign on the dotted line, just listen to the alarm bells ringing. The Forex is an extremely risky business and no one can give any guarantees or make any sound promises as to what you are likely to make. In the majority of cases, Forex novices lose, many not making it past the first 2 or 3 months.

A Realistic Approach

If you are tempted to try out Forex trading to see if it can work as an additional income stream for you, then research online and get free information on how to trade the Forex. Educational materials abound on the internet. Fire up Google and put “Forex tutorials” or something similar in the search field and start reading. Then open a demo account (which won’t cost you anything) at a popular broker and start getting used to the trading platform.

After practicing for a while, find a broker that allows you to trade micro lots in a mini trading account which gives you the option of trading at the 10 cent (micro) level. With some brokers you just need $250 to open an account. That will be the maximum you will risk.

At 10 cents per trading unit you can be forgiven for thinking it will take some time to get into steady income. You will be surprised! Start slowly, learning the ropes, and then, once your account starts compounding, it can begin to grow at a surprisingly fast rate. But be patient, this is not a get-rich-quick-scheme. The learning process can take a long time.

It’s understandable if up to now you have relegated Forex trading to just another one of those make money scams. Regretfully, that is one unsavory side of the Forex online trading market. However, there are a large number of reputable brokers out there, offering excellent facilities and advice to help you get started. Don’t rush, just ease yourself in gradually.

To Sum Up

Remember, the single most important factor in avoiding a make money scam related to Forex trading, is to do your homework and keep these key factors in mind:

Be prepared for a lengthy learning curve.

Don’t commit large sums of money to your training period.

The lion’s share of your time should be devoted to mind skills, namely, developing the right psychology and self-disciplines necessary for trading successfully.

Don’t get caught in the net of make money scams. Always research thoroughly. If you do that with Forex trading, it is unlikely you will regret it. There is the possibility you will see a handsome return financially.

tip from gjsignal blog

You might have heard a lot about auto forex system trading, both good and bad concerning it. Let me say you don’t know much about it or you are looking for a profitable one.

What is Auto Forex System Trading?
Auto forex system trading is a method of using software to trade the forex market automatically. They can be also referred as robot-driven forex trading. If you choose this system of forex trading, a robot or software would be employed to perform your trade automatically for you without any assistance from you. All you have to do is to set the robot so it could trade for you automatically. You can set the time you want it to trade for you. The software is capable of working round the clock for you, that is it could trade 24 hours 7 days in a week for you without any stoppage. You should also know that for the robot to trade round the clock for you, your PC must be on and your internet connection must also be connected, otherwise linked to the robot. This simply means that the robot won’t perform any trade for you when your PC goes off or your network link fails. Nevertheless, there is still an alternative for you to use when your PC and/ your internet connection fails. This method involves you hosting the robot in second party server, that means that the robot will trade for you even if your PC is off and your internet connection disconnects. It is possible to see FX hosting that offer this kind of service which are reliable.

How to Find Profitable Auto Forex System Trading?
The best way to find them is through the recommendation of forex traders that use them, that way you would be rest assured that they are making money using it. It is sometimes good to take the risk because you could succeed taking the risk. I am an FX trader and I will recommend to you a trading robot I use that is very profitable. It works well for me and I make fewer losses using them. The name of this system is called Fap Turbo. I urge you to give it a try today, it might just be the kind of auto robot you need.

How Does Auto Forex System Trading Work?
Auto forex system trading works with the aid of mathematical algorithms and human intelligence attached to it. When you buy an automatic trading robot, you are provided with a manual (it can come in form of video manual or manual created using acrobat reader, that is pdf) This manual contains the complete working step-by-step guide which will enable you to know how to install and use the robot to its maximum potential. The installation of an automated trading robot doesn’t look complicated. Once you download it, you will feed it to Meta Trader 4 platform. It comes with default setting but you can also alter its setting to suit your taste. It places trade and closes trade automatically for you. If at anytime you don’t want it to trade for you, you can switch off. Within the space of 20 minutes, you can finalize the setting of the robot. Auto FX robot is able to read FX trends and react to market conditions. It uses its algorithm to read FX charts and determine whether a trade will be profitable or not. It also exits a placed trade when there is a possibility of loss. Most are created by FX professional traders with knowledge of programming.

Are Auto Forex System Trading consistent, profitable and reliable?
The truth is that 1 out of 10 forex trading robots are profitable. The profitable robots are hard to come by. It is created by FX professional traders and kept for themselves. The good ones usually have a winning rate of 95% and a drawdown of 0.35%. It doesn’t mean that they don’t make losses but there losses are minimized. There fain surpasses their losses.

tip from infiniteforex

Whether you are a beginner in forex trading, who isn’t fully really to leaveآ the full time job yet, or you just want to have a bit of both – full-time stable income and part-time exciting investment opportunity on the side, you have to figure out how to trade after or during work because forex market isn’t standing still and doesn’t wait.آ 

Between 2003 and 2008, the value of the U.S. dollar fell compared to most major currencies. The depreciation accelerated during 2007-2008, impacting both domestic and international investments

The impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multifaceted. Most notably, investors need to understand the effect that exchange rates can have on financial statements, how this relates to where goods are sold and produced, and the impact of raw material inflation.

The confluence of these factors can help investors determine where and how to allocate investment funds. Read on to learn how to invest when the U.S. dollar is weak.

The Home Country
In the U.S., the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is the governing body that mandates how companies account for business operations on financial statements. FASB has determined that the primary currency in which each entity conducts its business is referred to as “functional currencyâ€‌. However, the functional currency may differ from the reporting currency. In these cases, translation adjustments may result in gains or losses, which are generally included when calculating net income for that period.

What does all this technical-speak mean when investing in the U.S. in a falling dollar environment? If you invest in a company that does the majority of its business in the U.S. and is domiciled in the U.S., the functional and reporting currency will be the U.S. dollar. If the company has a subsidiary in Europe, its functional currency will be the euro. So, when the company translates the subsidiary’s results to the reporting currency (the U.S. dollar), the dollar/euro exchange rate must be used. For example, in a falling dollar environment, one euro buys $1.54 compared to a prior rate of $1.35. Therefore, as you translate the subsidiary’s results into the falling U.S. dollar environment, the company benefits from this translation gain with higher net income.

Why Geography Matters
Understanding the accounting treatment for foreign subsidiaries is the first step to determining how to take advantage of currency movements. The next step is capturing the arbitrage between where goods are sold and where goods are made. As the U.S. has moved toward becoming a service economy and away from a manufacturing economy, low-cost provider countries have captured those manufacturing dollars. U.S. companies took this to heart and started outsourcing much of their manufacturing and even some service jobs to low-cost provider countries to exploit those cheaper costs and improve margins. During times of U.S. dollar strength, low-cost provider countries produce goods cheaply; companies sell these goods at higher prices to consumers abroad to make a sufficient margin.

This works well when the U.S. dollar is strong; however, as the U.S. dollar falls, keeping costs in U.S. dollars and receiving revenues in stronger currencies – in other words, becoming an exporter – is more beneficial to a U.S. company. Between 2005 and 2008, U.S. companies took advantage of the depreciating U.S. dollar as U.S. exports showed strong growth that occurred as a result of the shrinking of the U.S. current account deficit to an 8-year low of 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) (excluding oil) during 2008.

However, just to complicate matters slightly, many of the low-cost provider countries produce goods that are unaffected by U.S. dollar movements because these countries “pegâ€‌ their currencies to the dollar. In other words, they let their currencies fluctuate in tandem with the fluctuations of the U.S. dollar, preserving the relationship between the two. Regardless of whether goods are produced in the U.S. or by a country that links its currency to the U.S., in a falling U.S. dollar environment, costs decline.

Up, Up and Away …
The price of commodities related to the value of the dollar and interest rates tends to follow the following cycle:

Interest Rates are Cut أ‍ U.S. Dollar is Pulled Lowerأ‍ Gold and Commodity Index Bottomأ‍ Interest Rates Turn Up أ‍ Bonds Peakأ‍ Stocks Peak أ‍ Dollar Rises أ‍ Gold and Commodity Index Peak أ‍ Interest Rates Peak أ‍ Bonds Bottom أ‍ Stocks Bottom أ‍ Interest Rates are Cut أ‍ Cycle Begins Again

At times, however, this cycle does not persist and commodity prices do not bottom as interest rates fall and the U.S. dollar depreciates. Such a divergence from this cycle occurred during 2007-2008 as the direct relationship between economic weakness and weak commodity prices reversed. During the first five months of 2008, the price of crude oil was up 20%, the commodity index was up 18%, the metals index was up 24% and the food price index was up 18%, while the dollar depreciated 6%. According to Wall Street research by Jens Nordvig and Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs, the correlation between the euro/dollar exchange rate, which was 1% from 1999-2004, rose to a striking 52% during the first half of 2008. While people disagree about the reasons for this divergence, there is little doubt that taking advantage of the relationship provides investment opportunities.

Profiting From the Falling Dollar
Taking advantage of currency moves in the short-term can be as simple as investing in the currency you believe will show the greatest strength against the U.S. dollar during your investment timeframe. You can invest directly in the currency, currency baskets or in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For a longer-term strategy, investing in the stock market indexes of countries you believe will have appreciating currencies or investing in sovereign wealth funds, which are vehicles through which governments trade currencies, can provide exposure to strengthening currencies.

You can also profit from a falling dollar by investing in foreign companies or U.S. companies that derive the majority of their revenues from outside the U.S. (and of even greater benefit, those with costs in U.S. dollars or that are U.S.-dollar linked).

As a non-U.S. investor, buying assets in the U.S., especially tangible assets, such as real estate, is extremely inexpensive during periods of falling dollar values. Because foreign currencies can buy more assets than the comparable U.S. dollar can buy in the U.S., foreigners have a purchasing power advantage.

Finally, investors can profit from a falling U.S. dollar through the purchase of commodities or companies that support or participate in commodity exploration, production or transportation.

Conclusion
Predicting the length of U.S. dollar depreciation is difficult because many factors collaborate to influence the value of the currency. Despite this, having insight into the influence that changes in currency values have on investments provides opportunities to benefit both in the short and long-term. Investing in U.S. exporters, tangible assets (foreigners who buy U.S. real estate or commodities) and appreciating currencies or stock markets provide the basis for profiting from the falling U.S. dollar.

by Tina Carleton

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the “FOREXâ€‌ or “Forexâ€‌ or “Retail forexâ€‌ or “FXâ€‌ or “Spot FXâ€‌ or just “Spotâ€‌ is the largest financial market in the world, with a volume of over $4 trillion a day. If you compare that to the $25 billion a day volume that the New York Stock Exchange trades, you can easily see how enormous the Foreign Exchange really is. It actually equates to more than three times the total amount of the stocks and futures markets combined! Forex rocks!

What is traded on the Foreign Exchange market?

The simple answer is money. Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker or dealer, and are traded in pairs; for example the euro and the US dollar (EUR/USD) or the British pound and the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY).

Because you’re not buying anything physical, this kind of trading can be confusing. Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country. When you buy, say, Japanese Yen, you are in effect buying a share in the Japanese economy, as the price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the Japanese economy.

In general, the exchange rate of a currency versus other currencies is a reflection of the condition of that country’s economy, compared to the other countries’ economies.

Unlike other financial markets like the New York Stock Exchange, the Forex spot market has neither a physical location nor a central exchange. The Forex market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or â€کInterbank’ market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.

Until the late 1990’s, only the “big guysâ€‌ could play this game. The initial requirement was that you could trade only if you had about ten to fifty million bucks to start with! Forex was originally intended to be used by bankers and large institutions – and not by us “little guysâ€‌. However, because of the rise of the Internet, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to â€کretail’ traders like us.

All you need to get started is a computer, a high-speed Internet connection, and the information contained within this site.

ForexTutorial.com was created to introduce novice or beginner traders to all the essential aspects of foreign exchange, with many sources that we got from around the net.

What is a Spot Market?

A spot market is any market that deals in the current price of a financial instrument.

Which Currencies Are Traded?

The most popular currencies along with their symbols are shown below:

Forex currency symbols are always three letters, where the first two letters identify the name of the country and the third letter identifies the name of that country’s currency.

When Can Currencies Be Traded?

The spot FX market is unique within the world markets. It’s like a Super Wal-Mart where the market is open 24-hours a day. At any time, somewhere around the world a financial center is open for business, and banks and other institutions exchange currencies every hour of the day and night with generally only minor gaps on the weekend.

The foreign exchange markets follow the sun around the world, so you can trade late at night (if you’re a vampire) or in the morning (if you’re an early bird). Keep in mind though, the early bird doesn’t necessarily get the worm in this market – you might get the worm but a bigger, nastier bird of prey can sneak up and eat you too…

The Forex market (OTC)

The Forex OTC market is by far the biggest and most popular financial market in the world, traded globally by a large number of individuals and organizations. In the OTC market, participants determine who they want to trade with depending on trading conditions, attractiveness of prices and reputation of the trading counterpart.

The chart below shows global foreign exchange activity. The dollar is the most traded currency, being on one side of 89% of all transactions. The Euro’s share is second at 37%, while that of the yen is at 20%.

Why Trade Foreign Currencies?

There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market:

• No commissions.
  No clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees. Brokers are compensated for their services through something called the bid-ask spread.
• No middlemen. Spot currency trading eliminates the middlemen, and allows you to trade directly with the market responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair.
• No fixed lot size.
  In the futures markets, lot or contract sizes are determined by the exchanges. A standard-size contract for silver futures is 5000 ounces. In spot Forex, you determine your own lot size. This allows traders to participate with accounts as small as $250 (although we explain later why a $250 account is a bad idea).
• Low transaction costs.
  The retail transaction cost (the bid/ask spread) is typically less than 0.1 percent under normal market conditions. At larger dealers, the spread could be as low as .07 percent. Of course this depends on your leverage and all will be explained later.
• A 24-hour market.
  There is no waiting for the opening bell – from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon EST, the Forex market never sleeps. This is awesome for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade–morning, noon or night.
• No one can corner the market.
  The foreign exchange market is so huge and has so many participants that no single entity (not even a central bank) can control the market price for an extended period of time.
• Leverage.
  In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make nice profits, and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. For example, Forex brokers offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies. Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on. But leverage is a double-edged sword. Without proper risk management, this high degree of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
• High Liquidity.
  Because the Forex Market is so enormous, it is also extremely liquid. This means that under normal market conditions, with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at will. You are never “stuckâ€‌ in a trade. You can even set your online trading platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (a limit order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (a stop loss order).
• Free “Demoâ€‌ Accounts, News, Charts, and Analysis. Most online Forex brokers offer â€کdemo’ accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services. All free! These are very valuable resources for “poorâ€‌ and SMART traders who would like to hone their trading skills with â€کplay’ money before opening a live trading account and risking real money.
• “Miniâ€‌ and “Microâ€‌ Trading:
  You would think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a ton of money. The fact is, compared to trading stocks, options or futures, it doesn’t. Online Forex brokers offer “miniâ€‌ and “microâ€‌ trading accounts, some with a minimum account deposit of $300 or less. Now we’re not saying you should open an account with the bare minimum but it does makes Forex much more accessible to the average (poorer) individual who doesn’t have a lot of start-up trading capital.

What Tools Do I Need to Start Trading Forex?

A computer with a high-speed Internet connection and all the information on this site is all that is needed to begin trading currencies.

What Does It Cost to Trade Forex?

An online currency trading (a “micro accountâ€‌) may be opened with a couple hundred bucks. Do not laugh – micro accounts and its bigger cousin, the mini account, are both good ways to get your feet wet without drowning. For a micro account, we’d recommend at least $1,000 to start. For a mini account, we’d recommend at least $10,000 to start.

Let’s recap:آ 

• The forex market represents the electronic over-the-counter markets where currencies are traded worldwide 24 hours a day, five and a half days a week. The typical means of trading forex are on the spot, futures and forwards markets.
• Currencies are “priced” in currency pairs and are quoted either directly or indirectly.
• Currencies typically have two prices: bid (the amount that the market will buy the quote currency for in relation to the base currency); and ask (the amount the market will sell one unit of the base currency for in relation to the quote currency). The bid price is always smaller than the ask price.
• Unlike conventional equity and debt markets, forex investors have access to large amounts of leverage, which allows substantial positions to be taken without making a large initial investment.
• The adoption and elimination of several global currency systems over time led to the formation of the present currency exchange system, in which most countries use some measure of floating exchange rates.
• Governments, central banks, banks and other financial institutions, hedgers, and speculators are the main players in the forex market.
• The main economic theories found in the foreign exchange deal with parity conditions such as those involving interest rates and inflation. Overall, a country’s qualitative and quantitative factors are seen as large influences on its currency in the forex market.
• Forex traders use fundamental analysis to view currencies and their countries like companies, thereby using economic announcements to gain an idea of the currency’s true value.
• Forex traders use technical analysisآ to look at currencies the same way they would any other asset and, therefore, use technical tools such as trends, charts and indicators in their trading strategies.
• Unlike stock trades, forex trades have minimal commissions and related fees. But new forex traders should take a conservative approach and use orders, such as the take-profit or stop-loss, to minimize losses.

article from investopedia

So, you think you are ready to trade? Make sure you read this section to learn how you can go about setting up a forex account so that you can start trading currencies. We’ll also mention other factors thatآ you should be aware of before you take this step. We will then discuss how to trade forexآ and the different types of orders that can be placed.

Opening A Forex Brokerage Account
Trading forex is similar to the equity market because individuals interested in trading need to open up a trading account. Like the equity market, each forex account and the services it provides differ, so it is important that you find the right one. Below we will talk about some of the factors that should be considered when selecting a forex account.

Leverage
Leverage is basically the ability to control large amounts of capital, using very little of your own capital; the higher the leverage, the higher the level of risk. The amount of leverage on an account differs depending on the account itself, but most use a factor of at least 50:1, with some being as high as 250:1. A leverage factor of 50:1 means that for every dollar you have in your account you control up to $50. For example, if a trader has $1,000 in his or her account, the broker will lend that person $50,000 to trade in the market. This leverage also makes your margin, or the amount you have to have in the account to trade a certain amount, very low. In equities, margin is usually at least 50%, while the leverage of 50:1 is equivalent to 2%.

Leverage is seen as a major benefit of forex trading, as it allows you to make large gains with a small investment. However, leverage can also be an extreme negative if a trade moves against you because your losses also are amplified by the leverage. With this kind of leverage, there is the real possibility that you can lose more than you invested – although most firms have protective stops preventing an account from going negative. For this reason, it is vital that you remember this when opening an account and that when you determine your desired leverage you understand the risks involved.

Commissions and Fees
Another major benefit of forex accounts is that trading within them is done on a commission-free basis. This is unlike equity accounts, in which you pay the broker a fee for each trade. The reason for this is that you are dealing directly with market makers and do not have to go through other parties like brokers.

This may sound too good to be true, but rest assured that market makers are still making money each time you trade. Remember the bid and ask from the previous section? Each time a trade is made, it is the market makers that capture the spread between these two. Therefore, if the bid/ask for a foreign currency is 1.5200/50, the market maker captures the difference (50 basis points).

If you are planning on opening a forex account, it is important to know that each firm has different spreads on foreign currency pairs traded through them. While they will often differ by only a few pips (0.0001), this can be meaningful if you trade a lot over time. So when opening an account make sure to find out the pip spread that it has on foreign currency pairs you are looking to trade.

Other Factors
There are a lot of differences between each forex firm and the accounts they offer, so it is important to review each before making a commitment. Each company will offer different levels of services and programs along with fees above and beyond actual trading costs. Also, due to the less regulated nature of the forex market, it is important to go with a reputable company.

How to Trade Forex
Now that you know some important factors to be aware of when opening a forex account, we will take a look at what exactly you can trade within that account. The two main ways to trade in the foreign currency market is the simple buying and selling of currency pairs, where you go long one currency and short another. The second way is through the purchasing of derivatives that track the movements of a specific currency pair. Both of these techniques are highly similar to techniques in the equities market.The most common way is to simply buy and sell currency pairs, much in the same way most individuals buy and sell stocks. In this case, you are hoping the value of the pair itself changes in a favorable manner. If you go long a currency pair, you are hoping that the value of the pair increases. For example, let’s say that you took a long position in the USD/CAD pair – you will make money if the value of this pair goes up, and lose money if it falls. This pair rises when the U.S. dollar increases in value against the Canadian dollar, so it is a bet on the U.S. dollar.

The other option is to use derivative products, such as options and futures, to profit from changes in the value of currencies. If you buy an option on a currency pair, you are gaining the right to purchase a currency pair at a set rate before a set point in time. A futures contract, on the other hand, creates the obligation to buy the currency at a set point in time. Both of these trading techniques are usually only used by more advanced traders, but it is important to at least be familiar with them.

Types of Orders
A trader looking to open a new position will likely use either a market order or a limit order. The incorporation of these order types remains the same as when they are used in the equity markets. A market order gives a forex trader the ability to obtain the currency at whateverآ exchange rateآ it is currently trading at in the market, while a limit order allows the trader to specify a certain entry price.

Forex traders who already hold an open position may want to consider using a take-profit orderآ to lock in a profit. Say, for example, that a trader is confident that the GBP/USD rate will reach 1.7800, but is not as sure that the rate could climb any higher. A trader could use a take-profit order, which would automatically close his or her position when the rate reaches 1.7800, locking in their profits.

Another tool that can be used when traders hold open positions is the stop-loss order. This order allows traders to determine how much the rate can decline before the position is closed and further losses are accumulated. Therefore, if the GBP/USD rate begins to drop, an investor can place a stop-loss that will close the position (for example at 1.7787), in order to prevent any further losses.

As you can see, the type of orders that you can enter in your forex trading account are similar to those found in equity accounts. Having a good understanding of these orders is critical before placing your first trade

One of the underlying tenets of technical analysis is that historical price action predicts future price action. Since the forex is a 24-hour market, there tends to be a large amount of data that can be used to gauge future price activity, thereby increasing the statistical significance of the forecast. This makes it the perfect market for traders that use technical tools, such as trends, charts and indicators.

It is important to note that, in general, the interpretation of technical analysis remains the same regardless of the asset being monitored. There are literally hundreds of books dedicated to this field of study, but in this tutorial we will only touch on the basics of why technical analysis is such a popular tool in the forex market.

As the specific techniques of technical analysis are discussed in other tutorials, we will focus on the more forex-specific aspects of technical analysis.

Technical Analysis Discounts Everything; Especially in Forex
Minimal Rate Inconsistency
There are many large players in the forex market, such as hedge funds and large banks, that all have advanced computer systems to constantly monitor any inconsistencies between the different currency pairs. Given these programs, it is rare to see any major inconsistency last longer than a matter of seconds. Many traders turn to forex technical analysis because it presumes that all the factors that influence a price – economic, political, social and psychological – have already been factored into the current exchange rate by the market. With so many investors and so much money exchanging hands each day, the trend and flow of capital is what becomes important, rather than attempting to identify a mispriced rate.آ 

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Trend or Range
One of the greatest goals of technical traders in the FX market is to determine whether a given pair will trend in a certain direction, or if it will travel sideways and remain range-bound. The most common method to determine these characteristics is to draw trend lines that connect historical levels that have prevented a rate from heading higher or lower. These levels of support and resistance are used by technical traders to determine whether or not the given trend, or lack of trend, will continue.آ 

Generally, the major currencyآ pairs – such as the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD – have shown the greatest characteristics of trend, while the currency pairs that have historically shown a higher probability of becoming range-bound have been the currency crosses (pairs not involving the U.S. dollar). The two charts below show the strong trending nature of USD/JPY in contrast to the range-bound nature of EUR/CHF. It is important for every trader to be aware of the characteristics of trend and range, because they will not only affect what pairs are traded, but also what type of strategy should be used. (To learn more about this subject, see Trading Trend Or Range?)آ 

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Graph created by E-Signal.

Figure 2

Common Indicators

Technical traders use many different indicators in combination with support and resistance to aid them in predicting the future direction of exchange rates. Again, learning how to interpret various forex technical indicators is a study unto itself and goes beyond the scope of this forex tutorial. If you wish to learn more about this subject, we suggest you read our technical analysis tutorial.A few indicators that we feel we should mention, due to their popularity, are: Bollinger bands, Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastics. These technical tools are rarely used by themselves to generate signals, but rather in conjunction with other indicators and chart patterns.

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Graph created by E-Signal.

Figure 1

In the equities market, fundamental analysis looks to measure a company’s true value and to base investments upon this type of calculation. To some extent, the same is done in the retail forex market, where forex fundamental traders evaluate currencies, and their countries, like companies and use economic announcements to gain an idea of the currency’s true value.

All of the news reports, economic data and political events that come out about a country are similar to news that comes out about a stock in that it is used by investors to gain an idea of value. This value changes over time due to many factors, including economic growth and financial strength. Fundamental traders look at all of this information to evaluate a country’s currency.

Given that there are practically unlimited forexآ fundamentals trading strategies based on fundamental data, one could write a book on this subject. To give you a better idea of a tangible trading opportunity, let’s go over one of the most well-known situations, theآ forex carry trade. (To read some frequently asked questions about currency trading, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)

A Breakdown of theآ Forex Carry Trade
The currency carry trade is a strategy in which a trader sells a currency that is offering lower interest rates and purchases a currency that offers a higher interest rate. In other words, you borrow at a low rate, and then lend at a higher rate. The trader using the strategy captures the difference between the two rates. When highly leveraging the trade, even a small difference between two rates can make the trade highly profitable. Along with capturing the rate difference, investors alsoآ willآ often see the value of the higher currency rise as money flows into the higher-yielding currency, which bids up its value.

Real-life examples of a yen carry trade can be found starting in 1999, when Japan decreased its interest rates to almost zero. Investors would capitalize upon these lower interest rates and borrow a large sum of Japanese yen. The borrowed yen is then converted into U.S. dollars, which are used to buy U.S. Treasury bonds with yields and coupons at around 4.5-5%. Since the Japanese interest rate was essentially zero, the investor would be paying next to nothing to borrow the Japanese yen and earn almost all the yield on his or her U.S. Treasury bonds. But with leverage, you can greatly increase the return.

For example, 10 times leverage would create a return of 30% on a 3% yield. If you have $1,000 in your account and have access to 10 times leverage, you will control $10,000. If you implement the currency carry trade from the example above, you will earn 3% per year. At the end of the year, your $10,000 investment would equal $10,300, or a $300 gain. Because you only invested $1,000 of your own money, your real return would be 30% ($300/$1,000). However this strategy only works if the currency pair’s value remains unchanged or appreciates. Therefore, most forex carry traders look not only to earn the interest rate differential, but also capital appreciation. While we’ve greatly simplified this transaction, the key thing to remember here is that a small difference in interest rates can result in huge gains when leverage is applied. Most currency brokers require a minimum margin to earn interest for carry trades.

However, this transaction is complicated by changes to the exchange rate between the two countries. If the lower-yielding currency appreciates against the higher-yielding currency, the gain earned between the two yields could be eliminated. The major reason that this can happen is that the risks of the higher-yielding currency are too much for investors, so they choose to invest in the lower-yielding, safer currency. Because carry trades are longer term in nature, they are susceptible to a variety of changes over time, such as rising rates in the lower-yielding currency, which attracts more investors and can lead to currency appreciation, diminishing the returns of the carry trade. This makes the future direction of the currency pair just as important as the interest rate differential itself. (To read more about currency pairs, see Using Currency Correlations To Your Advantage, Making Sense Of The Euro/Swiss Franc Relationshipآ and Forces Behind Exchange Rates.)

To clarify this further, imagine that the interest rate in the U.S. was 5%, while the same interest rate in Russia was 10%, providing a carry trade opportunity for traders to short the U.S. dollar and to long the Russian ruble. Assume the trader borrows $1,000 US at 5% for a year and converts it into Russian rubles at a rate of 25 USD/RUB (25,000 rubles), investing the proceeds for a year. Assuming no currency changes, the 25,000 rubles grows to 27,500 and, if converted back to U.S. dollars, will be worth $1,100 US. But because the trader borrowed $1,000 US at 5%, he or she owes $1,050 US, making the net proceeds of the trade only $50.

However, imagine that there was another crisis in Russia, such as the one that was seen in 1998 when the Russian government defaulted on its debt and there was large currency devaluation in Russia as market participants sold off their Russian currency positions. If, at the end of the year the exchange rate was 50 USD/RUB, your 27,500 rubles would now convert into only $550 US (27,500 RUB x 0.02 RUB/USD). Because the trader owes $1,050 US, he or she will have lost a significant percentage of the original investment on this carry trade because of the currency’s fluctuation – even though the interest rates in Russia were higher than the U.S.

There is a great deal of academic theory revolving around currencies. While often not applicable directly to day-to-day trading, it is helpful to understand the overarching ideas behind the academic research.

The main economic theories found in the foreign exchange deal with parity conditions. A parity condition is an economic explanation of the price at which two currencies should be exchanged, based on factors such as inflation and interest rates. The economic theories suggest that when the parity condition does not hold, an arbitrage opportunity exists for market participants. However, arbitrage opportunities, as in many other markets, are quickly discovered and eliminated before even giving the individual investor an opportunity to capitalize on them. Other theories are based on economic factors such as trade, capital flows and the way a country runs its operations. We review each of them briefly below.

Major Theories: Purchasing Power Parity
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is the economic theory that price levels between two countries should be equivalent to one another after exchange-rate adjustment. The basis of this theory is the law of one price, where the cost of an identical good should be the same around the world. Based on the theory, if there is a large difference in price between two countries for the same product after exchange rate adjustment, an arbitrage opportunity is created, because the product can be obtained from the country that sells it for the lowest price.

The relative version of PPP is as follows:

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Where ‘e’ represents the rate of change in the exchange rate and ‘د€₁‘ and ‘د€₂‘represent the rates of inflation for country 1 and country 2, respectively.

For example, if the inflation rate for country XYZ is 10% and the inflation for country ABC is 5%, then ABC’s currency should appreciate 4.76% against that of XYZ.

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Interest Rate Parity
The concept of Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is similar to PPP, in that it suggests that for there to be no arbitrage opportunities, two assets in two different countries should have similar interest rates, as long as the risk for each is the same. The basis for this parity is also the law of one price, in that the purchase of one investment asset in one country should yield the same return as the exact same asset in another country; otherwise exchange rates would have to adjust to make up for the difference.

The formula for determining IRP can be found by:

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Where ‘F’ represents the forward exchange rate; ‘S’ represents the spot exchange rate; ‘i₁‘ represents the interest rate in country 1; and ‘i₂‘ represents the interest rate in country 2.

International Fisher Effect
The International Fisher Effect (IFE) theory suggests that the exchange rate between two countries should change by an amount similar to the difference between their nominal interest rates. If the nominal rate in one country is lower than another, the currency of the country with the lower nominal rate should appreciate against the higher rate country by the same amount.

The formula for IFE is as follows:

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Where ‘e’ represents the rate of change in the exchange rate and ‘i₁‘ and ‘i₂‘represent the rates of inflation for country 1 and country 2, respectively.

Balance of Payments Theory
A country’s balance of payments is comprised of two segments – the current account and the capital account – which measure the inflows and outflows of goods and capital for a country. The balance of payments theory looks at the current account, which is the account dealing with trade of tangible goods, to get an idea of exchange-rate directions.

If a country is running a large current account surplus or deficit, it is a sign that a country’s exchange rate is out of equilibrium. To bring the current account back into equilibrium, the exchange rate will need to adjust over time. If a country is running a large deficit (more imports than exports), the domestic currency will depreciate. On the other hand, a surplus would lead to currency appreciation.

The balance of payments identity is found by:

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Where BCA represents the current account balance; BKA represents the capital account balance; and BRA represents the reserves account balance.

Real Interest Rate Differentiation Model
The Real Interest Rate Differential Model simply suggests that countries with higher real interest rates will see their currencies appreciate against countries with lower interest rates. The reason for this is that investors around the world will move their money to countries with higher real rates to earn higher returns, which bids up the price of the higher real rate currency.

Asset Market Model
The Asset Market Model looks at the inflow of money into a country by foreign investors for the purpose of purchasing assets such as stocks, bonds and other financial instruments. If a country is seeing large inflows by foreign investors, the price of its currency is expected to increase, as the domestic currency needs to be purchased by these foreign investors. This theory considers the capital account of the balance of trade compared to the current account in the prior theory. This model has gained more acceptance as the capital accounts of countries are starting to greatly outpace the current account as international money flow increases.

Monetary Model
The Monetary Model focuses on a country’s monetary policy to help determine the exchange rate. A country’s monetary policy deals with the money supply of that country, which is determined by both the interest rate set by central banks and the amount of money printed by the treasury. Countries that adopt a monetary policy that rapidly grows its monetary supply will see inflationary pressure due to the increased amount of money in circulation. This leads to a devaluation of the currency.

These economic theories, which are based on assumptions and perfect situations, help to illustrate the basic fundamentals of currencies and how they are impacted by economic factors. However, the fact that there are so many conflicting theories indicates the difficulty in any one of them being 100% accurate in predicting currency fluctuations. Their importance will likely vary by the different market environment, but it is still important to know the fundamental basis behind each of the theories.

Economic Data
Economic theories may move currencies in the long term, but on a shorter-term, day-to-day or week-to-week basis, economic data has a more significant impact. It is often said the biggest companies in the world are actually countries and that their currency is essentially shares in that country. Economic data, such as the latest gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, are often considered to be like a company’s latest earnings data. In the same way that financial news and current events can affect a company’s stock price, news and information about a country can have a major impact on the direction of that country’s currency. Changes in interest rates, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, GDP, political stability etc. can all lead to extremely large gains/losses depending on the nature of the announcement and the current state of the country.

The number of economic announcements made each day from around the world can be intimidating, but as one spends more time learning about the forex market it becomes clear which announcements have the greatest influence. Listed below are a number of economic indicators that are generally considered to have the greatest influence – regardless of which country the announcement comes from.

Employment Data
Most countries release data about the number of people that currently are employed within that economy. In the U.S., this data is known as non-farm payrolls and is released the first Friday of the month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In most cases, strong increases in employment signal that a country enjoys a prosperous economy, while decreases are a sign of potential contraction. If a country has gone recently through economic troubles, strong employment data could send the currency higher because it is a sign of economic health and recovery. On the other hand, high employment can also lead to inflation, so this data could send the currency downward. In other words, economic data and the movement of currency will often depend on the circumstances that exist when the data is released.

Interest Rates
As was seen with some of the economic theories, interest rates are a major focus in the forex market. The most focus by market participants, in terms of interest rates, is placed on the country’s central bank changes of its bank rate, which is used to adjust monetary supply and institute the country’s monetary policy. In the U.S., the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) determines the bank rate, or the rate at which commercial banks can borrow and lend to the U.S. Treasury. The FOMC meets eight times a year to make decisions on whether to raise, lower or leave the bank rate the same; and each meeting, along with the minutes, is a point of focus. (For more on central banks read Get to Know the Major Central Banks.)

Inflation
Inflation data measures the increases and decreases of price levels over a period of time. Due to the sheer amount of goods and services within an economy, a basket of goods and services is used to measure changes in prices. Price increases are a sign of inflation, which suggests that the country will see its currency depreciate. In the U.S., inflation data is shown in the Consumer Price Index, which is released on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Gross Domestic Product
The gross domestic product of a country is a measure of all of the finished goods and services that a country generated during a given period. The GDP calculation is split into four categories: private consumption, government spending, business spending and total net exports. GDP is considered the best overall measure of the health of a country’s economy, with GDP increases signaling economic growth. The healthier a country’s economy is, the more attractive it is to foreign investors, which in turn can often lead to increases in the value of its currency, as money moves into the country. In the U.S., this data is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis once a month in the third or fourth quarter of the month.

Retail Sales
Retail sales data measures the amount of sales that retailers make during the period, reflecting consumer spending. The measure itself doesn’t look at all stores, but, similar to GDP, uses a group of stores of varying types to get an idea of consumer spending. This measure also gives market participants an idea of the strength of the economy, where increased spending signals a strong economy. In the U.S., the Department of Commerce releases data on retail sales around the middle of the month.

Durable Goods
The data for durable goods (those with a lifespan of more than three years) measures the amount of manufactured goods that are ordered, shipped and unfilled for the time period. These goods include such things as cars and appliances, giving economists an idea of the amount of individual spending on these longer-term goods, along with an idea of the health of the factory sector. This measure again gives market participants insight into the health of the economy, with data being released around the 26th of the month by the Department of Commerce.

Trade and Capital Flows
Interactions between countries create huge monetary flows that can have a substantial impact on the value of currencies. As was mentioned before, a country that imports far more than it exports could see its currency decline due to its need to sell its own currency to purchase the currency of the exporting nation. Furthermore, increased investments in a country can lead to substantial increases in the value of its currency.

Trade flow data looks at the difference between a country’s imports and exports, with a trade deficit occurring when imports are greater than exports. In the U.S., the Commerce Department releases balance of trade data on a monthly basis, which shows the amount of goods and services that the U.S. exported and imported during the past month. Capital flow data looks at the difference in the amount of currency being brought in through investment and/or exports t