CAC 40: Analysis MT – S51-2009

Invest-AT is dedicated to the medium and long term, it is not a site which focuses on the intraday. The analysis technique is to when it even less relevant than the time horizon recedes and consequently should be weighted our analysis with a dose fundamental. This is the year 2009 has shown a marked disconnection fairly basic compared to the technique, which does not facilitate such an approach. What is common cons by the AT and AF is the psychology of traders. A psychology that underlies the formation of stock prices and largely explains that market fluctuations are never to be sustainably managed modeled by computer systems. Let me first return to a view of the main stock index that significantly influence the overall financial centers of the world, it is of course the S & P 500.

آ  This view weekly since 2007 must warn you about the importance of current levels may be joined or even surpassed (see my question on the chart above). Indeed, we are witnessing since March 2009 an upward trend that the general damns the downside is unwavering and that somehow gives the impression of even surpass the LT bearish trend. An upward dynamic that is found on a MACD indicators (reference 5), which arrives bearing on its support and especially an RSI (reference 6) which does not yet entered into overbought zone (> 70). Now to view the range of daily ABC that accompanies the rise since March 2009:

An upward as-you-see’m so smooth the median of this range ABC, so that even with the age of the latter, we are tempted to keep it saw its relevance. Zoom in UT day is useful for understanding the current dynamics of the movement.

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آ If you are willing to recognize that 9> 7> 5> 3> 1 and 8> 6> 4> 2 then you will probably arrive at the same conclusion as me: the trend is upward. However, it is clear that on the CAC 40 over the past three months saw the establishment of what should qualify as a market range which translates into a horizontal drift as you can verify sue the zoom below below.

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Zoom who first saw the oscillations large enough to become akin to entering a squeeze, which reflects a market waiting phase.

On the last day chart of the CAC 40, it should be noted:

• 4 impacts (1-2-4 and 6) on the area of 38.2% retracement of the 2007-2009 lower
• The range 3-4-5 through the last bull attack
• 5 is greater than 3 and 7 is itself greater than 5
• 6 marks a test of the median of the range 3-4-5
The investor must be aware that the markets in general and the CAC 40 in particular marks a pause for 3 months. This break is characterized by a sideways drift that can be considered as a neutral trend in UT days.

This finding should not lead to the conclusion that the upward movement of the medium term that originated on the lower end of March 2009 is over.

Seasonality is not only conducive to Christmas, it is traditionally used to tell operations grooming assets which are used to translate into higher values that are best performed during the year and down those who have underperformed. This is therefore a factor of support and before December 31, it seems rather difficult to consider a correction that exceeds the range identified in the above analysis.

CONCLUSION:
It will be for operators to achieve retrieve the CAC 40 in the range from 3600 to 3900 to enable him to be back on the road to 4200 (with spillover strength of 3900) or come test the very important support of 3400 which embodies the line of neck ‘broad extinguisher that is becoming more and more questionable given the time elapsed since its overflow